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Forum: Probability 02-22-2005, 11:45 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 85
Posted By scottjack
Re: difference between a gambler and a 2+2er

a gambler is someone who starts playing with $100, with the goal of trying to win $10,000.

a "2+2er" as you put it, is someone who starts with $10,000, with the goal of winning $100.
Forum: Beginners Questions 11-20-2004, 01:29 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 128
Posted By scottjack
Re: Ethics of player revealing cards

I'd agree, if he doesn't protect his hand, especially after having it brought up to him a number of times, it's his own fault for any misfortune he gets from players that are able to act on...
Forum: Beginners Questions 10-07-2004, 12:33 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 126
Posted By scottjack
Re: Best time of day to play

i can vouch for this; i've had several profitable sessions playing early AM, central time. I noticed a lot of Russians playing, as well as Scandinavians.
Forum: Probability 09-29-2004, 10:51 AM
Replies: 7
Views: 96
Posted By scottjack
Re: math question

when you use the 118:1 number, you're assuming that the two suited cards are already in the opponent's hand.

the probability of any flopped 5 cards being a regular flush is .0019654015 (a lot...
Forum: Probability 09-28-2004, 12:00 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 96
Posted By scottjack
Re: math question

i'll give it a shot.

These calculations assume the first player already holds the pocket aces.

The number of regular flushes (not including straight flushes) that do not include the 2 aces in...
Forum: Poker Theory 09-13-2004, 11:12 PM
Replies: 37
Views: 209
Posted By scottjack
Re: left handedness in poker players

seems like an interesting subject for a poll ??
Forum: Small Stakes Pot-, No-Limit Hold'em 08-31-2004, 11:24 AM
Replies: 5
Views: 79
Posted By scottjack
Re: good tutorial for beginners? (cross-post w/ micro-limit)

http://www.learn-texas-holdem.com/index.htm

this site goes into the basic strategy, odds, etc. i found it to be pretty informative when i was first starting out.

a good general info site.
Forum: Probability 08-21-2004, 11:51 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 128
Posted By scottjack
Re: Perspective

Maybe i'm missing the point, but what is so unusual about having Q,Js and flopping top pair, with no good draw to the flush?
Forum: Micro-Limits 08-10-2004, 08:06 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 65
Posted By scottjack
Re: Flopped a set of Ks against 6 Players, comments please

since you had no real reason to fear a flush, why not a checkraise on the turn ?
Forum: Psychology 08-08-2004, 05:55 PM
Replies: 89
Views: 367
Posted By scottjack
Re: Witnessing an accident.

[ QUOTE ]
sometimes the casino makes me feel very sad. So many people losing money the need just to feed their fix. Of course I am willing to take their money at the poker table...and sometime...
Forum: Probability 08-01-2004, 09:33 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 123
Posted By scottjack
Re: Math Players: Does according to bayes theorem...

the probability for the SB, BB having above average hands won't change, according to Bayes' Theorum.

the probabilities that you calculate with Bayes' will differ only by a factor equal to the...
Forum: Probability 07-25-2004, 04:37 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 116
Posted By scottjack
Re: What is the probability of having all of one card play in a hand?

I don't think this is correct.
these 3 events' combined probability cannot be determined simply by multiplying their individual probabilities.

This only applies if the events are independent. ...
Forum: Small Stakes Hold'em 06-24-2004, 12:40 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 37
Posted By scottjack
Re: Loose game but 2/3 callers only what next?

i'd tend to think that in a truly tight game, among 'only' 2-3 players, that at least one of them would have something that would beat me in this situation.
Forum: Beginners Questions 06-15-2004, 11:43 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 64
Posted By scottjack
Re: Pre-Flop Odds of At Least One Person Having a Pair

There's probably some conditional probabilities that would have to be figured into things for it to be exactly correct....let me think on this one.
Forum: Beginners Questions 06-15-2004, 10:27 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 64
Posted By scottjack
Re: Pre-Flop Odds of At Least One Person Having a Pair

given that the probability of any one player having a pair is 1/17, the probability of any one player NOT having a pair is 1- 1/17 or 16/17.

the probability of no player at a nine handed table...
Forum: Beginners Questions 06-15-2004, 09:47 PM
Replies: 41
Views: 270
Posted By scottjack
Re: I think I found a leak!

I think you're right in the leaks in your game; might i suggest reading "Winning Low Limit Hold'em" by Lee Jones. It addresses more of the specifics of low limit games where you typically have more...
Forum: Probability 06-15-2004, 09:23 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 83
Posted By scottjack
Re: Flop straight two hands in a row

I'd say that these are totally independent events, and that once the first straight has fallen, the probability of the second hitting is the same as the probability of one hitting in the first place,...
Forum: Probability 06-13-2004, 05:33 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 93
Posted By scottjack
Re: Calculating Odds

perhaps I'm missing something as well, but wouldn't the probability of x, the card that doesn't match either of your hole cards be 44/50, not 48/50 ?
there are 3 remaining a's and 3 remaining b's in...
Forum: Probability 06-13-2004, 04:28 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 91
Posted By scottjack
Re: Prob: You and opponent flop set

duh...you're right...my fault. thanks for the correction
Forum: Probability 06-13-2004, 04:26 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 117
Posted By scottjack
Re: how many possible hands in a deck of cards

you're correct, of course..i only meant to be certain that the original number was included in the calculation.
Thanks for the correction.
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Forum: Probability 06-13-2004, 12:12 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 133
Posted By scottjack
Re: Probability that someone in a 10 handed game is dealt AA

The probability of any single person getting pocket aces is 6/1326 (6 different pairs of aces, divided by 1326 possible 2 card hands) Given that, the probability that a single person is NOT dealt...
Forum: Probability 06-13-2004, 12:02 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 117
Posted By scottjack
Re: how many possible hands in a deck of cards

There's 2,598,960 possible 5 card hands out of a deck of 52 cards.

The formula is often abbreviated by nCr (where n represents the number of things you're counting, C stands for 'Combination',...
Forum: Probability 06-13-2004, 11:26 AM
Replies: 5
Views: 85
Posted By scottjack
Re: An easy one for you guys. (I think)

I agree with your analysis, with exceptions. There are other ways to improve that don't involve pairing either of your cards. If they're suited, you could catch your flush; your AK could catch...
Forum: Probability 06-13-2004, 11:12 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 91
Posted By scottjack
Re: Prob: You and opponent flop set

Assuming his hand to be random, the probability of his having a 4 as one of his down cards is 1/47 (one remaining 4, among the 47 unseen cards)

Of course there is an intangible factor that might...
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