Math Players: Does according to bayes theorem...

[Tharpab]

The probability of the SB and BB have a BETTER THAN AVAREGE hand increase after everybody folds to you(in the button), my guess is that it does, or does it?

[TomCollins]

Yes. But not much.

[scottjack]

the probability for the SB, BB having above average hands won't change, according to Bayes' Theorum.

the probabilities that you calculate with Bayes' will differ only by a factor equal to the probabilities that the SS,BB have above or below average hands.

the EP,MP and LP players are folding or calling/raising regardless of the SS,BB's hands.

maybe i'm very wrong on this but to me it seems that it doesn't matter.

[DPCondit]

[ QUOTE ]
the EP,MP and LP players are folding or calling/raising regardless of the SS,BB's hands.


[/ QUOTE ]

Correct, but the fact that none of them found a playable hand would tend to indicate a larger than average percentage of low cards in the folded hands, and a higher than average percentage of high cards in the remaining deck including the small blinds.

What if you had a bunch of rocks who only played AA, KK, QQ, JJ, and AK, and every one of them called around to the blinds? They are not playing their hands based on the blinds, but would this affect the likely hands the blinds could be holding? You bet it would, with almost all of the highest cards missing from the deck, the blinds would almost surely be holding small to medium cards.

Obviously we are not talking anywhere near as pronounced an effect, but a real one nonetheless.

Don

[DPCondit]

I agree with Tom Collins that it probably wouldn't affect it by much, however. Actually the tighter the table, the less the folds mean, and the looser the table, the more the folds would tend to really mean something about the composition of both the stub, and the blinds.

If everybody folded around at a very loose table, it should indicate higher than average cards in the stub and the blinds. However, the blinds would be somewhat less likely to be paired. Since people are more likely to play pairs than unpaired cards, it indicates that the folded hands were less likely to be paired. This means the blinds are also less likely to be paired. This effect is the opposite of the high card/low card effect, the more pairs that are out, the more likely the remaining hands are to be paired.

Don

[tardigrade]

I think this would be true if by dealing one set of crummy hole cards, it made it more likely that the next set would be good. I'm not sure if that's the case, though.

If I get a crappy set of hole cards like A4, then it makes it *less* likely the next guy is going to have AA, and no more likely he'll get QQ than Q2. With suited cards, I would think if I had unsuited, it would be *more* likely the next guy will get unsuited than if I got suited. I'm not sure about connectors.

[playerfl]

I think you are right.

I think the blinds by definition have "average" hands, because there is no hand selection.

If everybody else folds, they had average hands as well.

that doesn't say anything about the value of the blind hands vs. all possible hands, they are still random unselected hands.

[DPCondit]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you are right.

I think the blinds by definition have "average" hands, because there is no hand selection.

If everybody else folds, they had average hands as well.

that doesn't say anything about the value of the blind hands vs. all possible hands, they are still random unselected hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Except that we know that people call with high cards and pairs (especially high pairs) much more often than low cards or unpaired hands. Because nobody called, that indicates that the folded players were much less likely to have high cards or pairs. This means the blinds are MORE likely to hold high cards, but slightly less likely to have pairs.

Don

[tubbyspencer]

Well if you assume that the folders would have played any Ace(which almost seems true at the tables I play sometimes), it seems there would have to be a much greater chance of the blinds holding AJ-AK, AA.

OK. So no table is quite that bad - but even if you make it A7o or higher - the result is the same. More AJ-AK, AA in the blinds. No?

[imported_stealthcow]

yes, they wlil have better than average hands. but not much considering most players will fold K3 just as quickly as 63.

the reverse should also apply, the more good hands players have in front, the less likely the blinds have strong hands