Perspective

[Veloso]

Oh my God you won't believe this!

I was at my weekly home game, and got this insane run of cards. UTG, I'm dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], so I fold. In the big blind I'm dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and am forced out by a raise. In the small blind, I get K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and fold. On the button, I get Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], raise it, and get two callers. Then the flop comes -- get this -- Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]!!

I thought I trusted my friends, but this is too much. I'm not very good at probability, and when I tried to figure out these odds on my pocket calculator, it just says '0', which I don't think is right. But I asked my cousin (and he takes Calculus even!) and he says the odds of this happening are just about sixty million billion to one. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

Is my cousin right about the odds here? He's pretty good with numbers, but I hate to admit my friends have been cheating me. Have any of you seen this happen before? Should I just stop playing with my ex-friends, or should I report them to the police?

[Lost Wages]

I had a similar experience.

Link

Lost Wages

[jtr]

You're obviously just running very well. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Wait until you hit the wall.

[scottjack]

Maybe i'm missing the point, but what is so unusual about having Q,Js and flopping top pair, with no good draw to the flush?

[stinkypete]

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Maybe i'm missing the point, but what is so unusual about having Q,Js and flopping top pair, with no good draw to the flush?

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he's just trying to make fun of the people that discuss unusually favourable or unfavourable sequences of cards dealt. but he has a very weak understanding of probability and is failing to make any point at all.

[BruceZ]

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Maybe i'm missing the point, but what is so unusual about having Q,Js and flopping top pair, with no good draw to the flush?

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he's just trying to make fun of the people that discuss unusually favourable or unfavourable sequences of cards dealt. but he has a very weak understanding of probability and is failing to make any point at all.

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Actually, the odds really are 60 million billion to 1 against getting those exact hands in that order and then those cards on the flop. 60.594076046649599 million billion to 1 to be exact.

[stinkypete]

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Maybe i'm missing the point, but what is so unusual about having Q,Js and flopping top pair, with no good draw to the flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

he's just trying to make fun of the people that discuss unusually favourable or unfavourable sequences of cards dealt. but he has a very weak understanding of probability and is failing to make any point at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, the odds really are 60 million billion to 1 against getting those exact hands in that order and then those cards on the flop. 60.594076046649599 million billion to 1 to be exact.

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i realize the odds are long, but those hands have no real significance. the probability of having those exact cards dealt OR cards of similar significance is something like 99.99%.

he's implying that being dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on consecutive hands, followed by a flop of A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is nothing unusual just because the probability of it happening is the same as the probability of his sequence occurring.

[daryn]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />

he's implying that being dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on consecutive hands, followed by a flop of A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is nothing unusual just because the probability of it happening is the same as the probability of his sequence occurring.

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and somehow, he's right.

[stinkypete]

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he's implying that being dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on consecutive hands, followed by a flop of A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is nothing unusual just because the probability of it happening is the same as the probability of his sequence occurring.

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and somehow, he's right.

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tell me when the last time you were dealt the same 2 aces 4 hands in a row was, and i'll believe that it's not unusual.

[tubbyspencer]

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he's implying that being dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on consecutive hands, followed by a flop of A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is nothing unusual just because the probability of it happening is the same as the probability of his sequence occurring.

[/ QUOTE ]


and somehow, he's right.

[/ QUOTE ]

tell me when the last time you were dealt the same 2 aces 4 hands in a row was, and i'll believe that it's not unusual.

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For me it was roughly 60 million billion hands ago.