flop math

[mudbuddha]

anyone know the method to figure out how often you will outflop a person, i understand the calculators for river and turn but is there a way to figure out how often the KQ will outflop AJ or something?? im not very good at math

[baumer]

please post this in the probability forum.

[mudbuddha]

rgr, haha i was hoping aaron brown would answer my post tho. haha

Aaron would know, he's a genius.

[KidPokerX]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't "out-flopping" the same as winning? Would'nt the win % and outflop % be the same?

[mudbuddha]

well, it would be purely 3 cards, not all 5.. so would b different, so.. AK would not be 50% with a pocket pair.
chagnes liekt hat

[KidPokerX]

Oh ok.
Have you found out yet? I'm curious to see if the numbers change much.

[mudbuddha]

nope nothin..

[ QUOTE ]
anyone know the method to figure out how often you will outflop a person, i understand the calculators for river and turn but is there a way to figure out how often the KQ will outflop AJ or something?? im not very good at math

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's ignore flushes for now. AJ is cleary the dominant hand, so KQ needs some cards to promote it we have:
KKK (1 possibility)
QQQ (1 possibility)
KKx (135 possibilities -- x is any non-K)
QQx (135 possibilities -- x is any non-Q)
KQx (378 possibilities -- x is any non-KQT)
AJT for the straight (36 possibilities since one A and J are already gone)
KJx (324 possibilities)
QJx (324 possibilities)
Kxx (1890 possibilities)
Qxx (1890 possibilities)

So, there are 17296 possibile flops, and, of those flops, 5114 favor the KQ, so that's going to be worse than 1 in 3.

[mudbuddha]

hm is there a general formula of some sort?