#11
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Re: 77
Yes, it's possible he's raising with a draw. What do you realistically think the chances of that are, though? 10% of the time he has a draw? 5%? If he has JTo he's got 12 outs, if he's got two big diamonds he has 14 outs, if he somehow has J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] he's got almost half the deck to beat you. You're getting 7.2:1 from the pot. There's no way your hand will be good by the river often enough to justify a call.
Fold. |
#12
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Re: 77
[ QUOTE ]
At Party, wouldn't hands such as A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]x [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], JT, or other pocket pairs be possible cold calling hands? Raising draws here on the turn is not out of the question by a long shot. [/ QUOTE ] He cold called 2 bets preflop. This means he has.. well, it means he has 2 cards. My math sucks, but let's try this out. Chastize me if I screw up, which I probably will. If he has a draw, you win about 68% of the time. If he has a king, you win about 2.5% of the time. Pot is 7.20 BB on the raise. If he has a draw and misses, you're collecting 8BB for one more bet assuming a river fold. If he has a draw and hits, or a king, and you pay him off, you lose 2 bets. So, if he has a draw, you're winnings 7 bets 68% of the time and losing 2 bets 33% of the time (this assumes a check/fold a whiffed draw, or a leadout on a made one) for a total of 4.1 Bets. If he has a king you lose 2 bets almost 100% of the time. (I'm not analyzing if you hit a seven and he hits a draw, because... well, I can't do this well as it is!) So it seems he has to be raising a draw here approximately 50% of the time for the call to be profitable. Of course, I'm probably completely wrong. |
#13
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results
River was the [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8.
I check, villian checks behind. Villian had [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J |
#14
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Re: results
It sounds like you are being results oriented.
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#15
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Re: results
I don't disagree with you, that's why I posted the hand. I see a lot of players at Party 2-4, 3-6 and 5-10 who are willing to raise the turn with overcards, strong draws, etc.
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#16
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Re: results
[ QUOTE ]
I don't disagree with you, that's why I posted the hand. I see a lot of players at Party 2-4, 3-6 and 5-10 who are willing to raise the turn with overcards, strong draws, etc. [/ QUOTE ] With better table selection at 2/4 it's not a problem. |
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