How many times have you laid down KK preflop?

[knifeandfork]

thought real hard about it three times all in tournaments. one muckage, and two calls im amazing because the muckage was correct(not really amazing the reraiser of original raiser was super tight). they showed each other qq, and AA. the other two times i ahd two and three people all in ahead of me the first time was rebut event and theyt showed jj,tt, and Aqs so i won a bigggg pot to make me chip leader then blew it later in set over set the next tiem it was qq and AQ andi finished third after doubling thru those too(they both had about half my stack. but ive ran them in to AA many times so i should have thought about it more

[tewall]

Given the odds of being dealt AA is 220 to 1 (and similarly for KK), these types of situations don't happen frequently. On top of that, you'd have to be playing against an opponent that you can read well enough to be sure you're making the right decision in laying down Kings, it's not too surprising to me that Phil's only laid them down 4 times.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Justin:

You're right. I'm the one who got lost.

By the way, I'm working on Dan Harrington's first book, Harrington on Hold ’em: Expert Strategy for No Limit Tournaments; Volume I: Strategic Play, right at the moment, and he addresses this issue. Here's what he has to say on it:

[ QUOTE ]
A lot of players will tell you stories about the times they folded K-K because they knew their opponent was raising with A-A. Here’s my story. About a year ago, a tight player in the big blind raised me. I actually thought he had aces. I was in early position with a pair of Kings. I made a modest raise and he reraised me. I thought a long time and called. The flop came three small cards, and he bet a modest amount and I called. He actually had the aces.

I almost threw the hand away, but I couldn’t do it. Just not savvy enough. Even bets and raises that seem to indicate great strength can have a variety of explanations, from moderately strong hands to outright bluffs. And here’s a little secret from the world of top-class poker. Nobody else is that savvy either, no matter what they tell you.


[/ QUOTE ]

Best wishes,
Mason

[David Sklansky]

Here's a situation I've seen twice. First hour of big tournament. Everyone has 10K. Blinds are 25 and 50. Early position brings it in for 200. Early position caller. Late position makes it 1200 with KK. Raiser folds. Limper moves in. All players are regular tourney pros. Both times the kings incorrectly called. NO chance it could be right. You can prove it mathematically. See why?

[etizzle]

Well, you have to know that the tourney pro will not, absolutely not, risk there tournament here with QQ. They have to figure there is a chance you could have aces, and even if they thought you had AK they would not want to flip that coin so early in a tournament. The all-in person must have AA. Small chance they could have the other 2 KK, but there is only one way to make that KK, and 6 ways to make aces.

[turnipmonster]

that's going to be a great book I bet.

--turnipmonster

[NaobisDad]

I don't know if you're being sarcastic or not, but after reading that post i was thinking the exact same thing.

[turnipmonster]

I am definitely not being sarcastic. dan harrington is one of the best, and I have a ton of respect for him.

--turnipmonster

[Redsox]

I'll take a shot at this one. Lets first put your opponent on a range of hands that he might make this move with. AA and KK.(Possibly AKs, but I think its unlikely). Ways to hold AA (6), ways to hold KK, considering that you have two of the kings in your hand (1). This means that its 86% that he has the bullets, and 14% that he's holding KK. Given that if he's got AA, you're about 20% to win, and if he's got KK, you're going to chop.

If your opponent has AA.

80% of the time you have 0 chips (and go broke).
20% of the time you have 20,275 (your chips, plus his chips, plus 50 + 25 blinds, plus 200 open raiser).
EV = .80(0) + .20(20,275) = 4,055

If he has KK. Chopped pot, and you end up with 10,138.

so now 14% of the time he has KK, and 86% of the time he has AA.

.86 (4,055) + .14 (10,138) = 4,906.

If you simply fold, you have 8,800.

Plus, if you call, you can expect to go broke more than 2/3 of the time.
.80 * .86 = .69 (when he has aces).

It seems unlikely that he would make this move with either QQ or JJ, b/c there would be increasingly more hands that he would have to worry about being dominated by you with. So, it seems almost definite that he has AA, and you have an easy fold.

[burningyen]

That your opponent would re-re-raise all-in with KK 14% of the time sounds too high. To me, a proof would have to show that your re-raise to 1200 with 2 opponents in EP makes your opponent's re-re-raise all-in necessarily AA.