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#11
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I completely agree with you.
You have at best a 40% chance to hit your hand. If you do, QQ, JJ, etc are done and you win no more. If you hit your K and are up against AA, you lose all your chips. You also could hit your hand and be up against a set (unlikely though). You aren't get the odds to hit your hand and the implied odds are extremely small. With a smaller stack, like 15x, I'd probably push it and put him to the test. But here you are in a good spot, and chips won are worth less than chips lost, especially if you are a good player. It is a very disciplined throw away. I believe Cloutier's book agrees with your play. SD |
#12
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Weak tight police?
I don't really like raising here all in, since it's such an overbet of the pot into a potential monster. A smaller raise isn't going to fold any of the hands you need to go away (QQ,JJ,AK), and you are not going to make very much if you raise, he calls w/ AK or an underpair, and you flop a pair. I think flat calling here is just fine. It's about 9% of your stack, and you have position on this player. It's going to be tough to get away from TPTK on the flop, but I think this is a less risky play than pushing. If you had a smaller stack, say 5k, then I like pushing. If you had a bigger stack, like 15k, then I like a reraise to about 2500. With those stacks, I think flat calling is fine. |
#13
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Wow, Reno...that's pretty bad, I must admit.
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#14
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I thought we were talking about the raise coming from a strong player. Do you really think that if a strong player raises UTG with KK, QQ, or JJ, and an overcard flops, he simply check-folds?
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#15
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If you weren't afraid of you opponent, I would suggest about a T2K reraise. If he is on the steal, he will probably fold. Otherwise, you get your money in with the 4th best hand possible, and you have position.
If he was raising from mid to late position, a reraise allin would be a possibility, particularly since you are afraid of him. Flat calling is a playable conservative move. Folding is definately weak tight. |
#16
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Not a bad fold given you say UTG is solid and you have a nice size stack. If he's as solid as you say and you flat call, you're taking a 2:1 shot to pair up, and even if you do he def. won't pay you off holding 10s - QQs. I think if you want to play here then you should pop him back preflop - like someone else said, big slick definitely loses alot of its strength if you play it soft and just flat call a raise with it. However given your stack size you still have a lot of room to maneuver, so its up to you - flat calling isn't so bad but I would think its generally a raise/fold situation.
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#17
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to an ace..yes.
not definitely to a K (so you have a valid point), but likely. There stack size is part of the equation. |
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