Party 15 - KTs on the Button

[DcifrThs]

given your preface to this hand i would have to assume you're thinking about raising the turn b/c everything else seems so standard as to not warrant discussion.

but raising the turn can't be correct as i see it. the turn bet by the MP2 indicates that he now feels his hand needs protection and is better than yours. therefore he probably puts you on an overcard& flush draw which is basically what you have (provided he doesn't have KJ). if he felt you had an ACTUAL made hand his play (with the probably incorrect assumption he is capable of thinking) would NOT be to bet into you. he'd likely either check call a hand he feels is worse or check raise a hand he feels is better b/c if he has a real monster he won't want to bet only to have you just call (which you might do w/ AJ), so he'll c-r.

so what happens when you now raise this turn? you put more money in getting literally 1:1 on turn money on your better than 4:1 shot (4.11:1 w/ the flush draw plus some for a king). PLUS you have no fold equity...his bet indicates he's likely willing to call a raise and check call the river...given that its party i can almost guarantee you he ain't goin nowhere for the turn raise.

now, however, his river play sucks given that he puts you on a draw. no draw got there, no hands you have will call that you were drawing with, so the only thing he SHOULD have done was check the river with his weak jack hoping you will bet a draw but knowing he's not giving up a bet since you won't call with a draw (what he likely put you on, on the turn) and might bet a busted one. but again, that is assuming hes a thinker which he/she probably ain't. (but there was SOME thought there b/c MP2 wanted to protect on the turn correctly putting you on a draw you'd bet the flop and check behind with on the turn.)

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

here is why you raise:

1) there are 3 previous callers indicating you likely have a hand better than theirs or close.

2) you are getting AT LEAST 3:1 on your raise but the bb will call probably more than 50% of the time so really 3.5:1 on your raise on average.
2a) KTs in no way shape or form (against limpers who are not limp reraising) has less than the requisite pot equity to raise.

3) you have position and can use it.

4) your investment is made better because markd and you as well, soda, play better than those limpers and will be extracting the maximum and losing the minimum. this is also made easier by the image the raise gives you.

for these reasons i raise.

-Barron

[soda]

This information is quite useless.

I could run some numbers with KTs against AA, KK and AQs of your suit and then say "I don't think these numbers are out of line".

[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

soda

[soda]

OK, so you would also recommend raising 88 here?

soda

[MarkD]

True, but what better way to look at this than to pick some typical limping hands here?

I guess the disagreement is that I don't assume that I'm beat/dominated here after a few people limp in. I assume I likely have the best hand and that my hand plays well in big multiway pots. This leads me to think that raising is best here.

I'm sure someone else can argue this better than me though.

[soda]

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4) your investment is made better because markd and you as well, soda, play better than those limpers and will be extracting the maximum and losing the minimum. this is also made easier by the image the raise gives you.


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This is silly, their mistakes are, by and large, calling too much. By limping in, I can magnify this mistake by keeping the pot smaller preflop, when my edge is smallest. Preflop, my edge with KTs is much smaller than once the flop hits. Given a large enough pot, calling with just about any two cards can become correct.

For certain players, those who play poorly post flop, raising here might be correct. The small edge that they gain by raising might be larger than the edge they gain by having their opponents calling mistakes magnified by the half size pot. For most players who play reasonably well post flop, they can make more money with this hand by limping in.

IMHO

soda

[soda]

Here's the concept I'd like to get across.

Number of opponents, or specific hands do not matter for this concept.

Let's suppose that your advantage with a certain hand is, indisputably, an advantage, but a small one: .01%. Now, let's say you raise with this hand preflop, so this advantage is now doubled to .02%.

Your opponents are typical Party Poker players and call too often. This is where your largest poker advantage comes into play. Sometimes, they will even call a bet with as little as two outs.

Now, let's say you flop a typical hand like top pair. It is the best hand. They check, you bet, and they call.

I already stated that you've gained .01% times the additional call that they made preflop. But, you lose money each time one of them incorrectly calls with any amount of outs. Even if it's just one out. So, let's say someone with a two outer calls you. If his odds to call in an unraised pot were x, his odds in this new raised pot have improved to 2x. So, his mistake is not nearly as bad as it was in the unraised pot. This is where you lose money from your preflop raise. You raise your very strong hands like AA in multiway pots, because the preflop equity gained outweighs the post flop equity lost by making poor players' calls less incorrect, and sometimes, correct.

Clearly, in this example, you will make more money by not raising to gain that .01% preflop edge. You would do better to make the money by them calling more incorrectly in the smaller postflop pot.

My argument is that with a weaker hand like KTs, I can make more money post-flop against these players than I can by raising preflop. Of course, with clearly better preflop hands like AA, it is almost always best to raise preflop.

soda

[DcifrThs]

you bring up good points...if you haven't seen ed miller's quiz taken from david sklansky's problem from i think it was 2000 or 2001 then id recommend it...

a VERY BIG mistake is not raising i think it was 6 limpers w/ ATs. huge huge mistake b/c you build a pot with a hand that does well multiway and wins much more than one would think.

KTs after 3 limpers is obviously not the same thing but you're still trying to build a pot...would you rather have 4 people for 2 bets or 6 people for 1 bet...also, your raise, where players are meek, allows YOU to take a free turn card when you need it...

and yes i raise 88 there. it oftentimes allows me to see a 4 card flop when overcards hit, or bet when i have an overpair...BUT THE OPPONENTS im against are the determinants of my raise...if i have aggressive opponents i'll just call. i won't go with the "see why?" thing but just tell you its because then the action they give when they shouldn't on the flop benefits me more (and turn and river etc.) than the few small bets i garner w/ a preflop raise.

i also raise 99 there...77 i'll usually just call as thats a cutoff hand for me.

-Barron

[MarkD]

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your investment is made better because markd ... play better than those limpers

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Well, this part may be a stretch of the imagination but I view this situation the same way you do exactly and as such feel this raise is much better than just calling.

[MarkD]

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you bring up good points...if you haven't seen ed miller's quiz taken from david sklansky's problem from i think it was 2000 or 2001 then id recommend it...

a VERY BIG mistake is not raising i think it was 6 limpers w/ ATs. huge huge mistake b/c you build a pot with a hand that does well multiway and wins much more than one would think.



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I was just thinking about this exact post.