Let's Guess AT This One

[Bubmack]

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously with no ante, you will only call the $100 when you are favored and will lose x when you don't call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since x is a sunk cost...the true cost of the call is 100-x. This would allow you to call as a slight dog at times (due to pot odds of 100+x to 100-x). So if X is 10..we are actually receiving pot odds of 11-9...this might also affect the value of X????

I didn't read the whole thread - so if this was already brought up...I apologize.

Bubs

[jdl22]

You pay the x whether you win or lose. So you win 100-x and if your hand loses you win -100-x.

As you said the x is a sunk cost meaning that it has no effect on your play. Hence you will play exactly as if you weren't paying the x. Because there are no antes you will only call if a favorite.

[Bubmack]

oh.. I see...thanks for clarifying that...the 100 is not offset by x when calling...bad ASSUMPTION on my part.

Bubs

[BugsBunny]

Although this is true I don't think there's enough of these types of hands to really make a serious impact on the overall odds. Without running through every single hand matchup I think looking at the general class of hands (AA vs random, KK vs random etc) is better for making an estimate of overall advantage (the guess part of the original).

Just to test out my guess of about 30% I generated 75 random matchups and ran an average. I got an average advantage of 29.31% with a SD of about 13.4. Relatively small sample size (but not super small), granted, but so far at least my estimate appears to be fairly accurate. At 25 hands the avg was 28.26 with a SD of 10.5.

I really think the guesses of x in the 20 range are way to high. That would require an average advantage of 40% (a 70-30 split) and I just don't see that happening.

[Easy E]

I'll go with $33 at worst and would prefer $25 or less if I could get away with it.

[southerndog]

[Huskiez]

I'll guess $9.

[Duke]

Half the time you're ahead, and when you are I think you're about an 11-9 favorite on average.

That's the real question you're getting at. So, play it 40 times, you give him 40x, you call 20 times, you win 11 times, you lose 9 times, you profit $200, so 200/40 = 5

Pay the guy $5.

And the only error I could possibly be making is on how much of a favorite I am when I am a favorite. Perhaps running bad has skewed me to the low side, or I'm an optimist. I'm thinking that something like J4 vs 97 will be sorta the average matchup.

I think it's a better test of seeing what the actual question is asking, than as a test of general intuition. It's a very logical problem, and I think a lot of people will make a blind guess without thinking it through far enough in their head, thereby trying to "intuit" the wrong thing.

And if nobody does an exhaustive simulation pretty soon or link to one I'll do it. Now I'm interested.

~D

[mackthefork]

In this case you will have to play hands where you are not the favourite and you will still have positive EV e.g opponent has QQ you have AK.

[mackthefork]

If there is an answer I haven't read it yet.

But I've convinced myself that if you pay anything at all you will lose long run, so my answer is $0.00.