AJ in at a discount out of position

[Coilean]

You're getting 8:1 to call the river raise, so you only need to win 12% of the time to show a profit. Your play here doesn't represent a very strong hand to me (why not check raise if you hit two pair or better, hoping he has a big ace?), so he might legitimately raise with any ace (but only AK-J make sense if he plays somewhat sane preflop) or AA-TT here, and even if he only plays KK-JJ this way 30% of the time, you win 18% of the time against those hands. Throw in some chance he screws around sometimes because of your fishy looking river bet, and the river fold gets even worse. If he has player notes and has seen you fold to river raises before, he may even be correct to raise with almost anything that he made it to the river with (whether he thinks you were bluffing or making big laydowns doesn't really matter).

Anyway, since you think this guy plays okay, I would just check call the whole way (and especially on the river if I was going to fold to a raise). He should value bet any ace or KK-JJ for you on the river anyway, plus bluff some hands he wouldn't call a bet with.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
How often would YOU bluff-raise the river here? Thirty-dollar bills don't just grow on trees, you know.

And astro, if it "looks like I'm trying to steal the pot," why raise? Why not just call and take my bet? If I'm just trying to steal it I'm not going to CALL the raise, am I?

I don't think you guys are putting yourselves in my opponent's shoes here at all. Maybe he had 55 and rivered a set, in which case I'm the dummy, but I definitely don't think I'm the weak-tight kind of dummy.

JimmyV

[/ QUOTE ]

no, you're not the weak-tight kind of dummy...you're the make a pointless bet and cost yourself the pot kind of dummy.

ask yourself: given the way he played, is there ANY way he'll fold a better hand? uh, NO.

is there ANY way he'll now call with a hand that you beat given you've withstood this aggression? YES, but not very many...in fact, he's more likely to RAISE in this spot which is why you don't want to bet in the first place.

BUT is there any way he'll bet a hand YOU BEAT if you check? YES.

then ask, would i rather risk losing a bet if he checks? OR would i rather risk losing the entire pot if i have to fold?

THEN, include the possibility he's a typical party player and like Coilean says will resteal here a good number of times and you've made a good case for never making a bet like this again. This is what astro meant. if it looks like you're stealing with a calling hand like a ten or something, why just call and risk losing if you're him and have been bluffing the whole way...the better play is to raise. (i also find it hilarious you advocate HIM just calling YOUR bet and take the pot from YOU when YOU wouldn't consider doing the same to him!!?!?!)

so in sum, the case has been laid to NEVER make a bet like that on the river again...ever.

ever.

ever ever.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
"You would've got to see a showdown."

That's great if you play poker to learn about people. People are fascinating. I'm curious about them too. But I'm not sure it's worth much money to me to learn about this particular guy's particular cards. I operate out of the probability list instead, because poker is not a showdown game, it's a game of probabilities.

Curiosity can be costly. And about a third of the time IT COSTS YOU A BET to check the river because your opponent CHECKS BEHIND.

I think checking is a -$11 play. Still waiting to hear how often people think a reasonable opponent will raise a hand I can beat here, to make calling the raise profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

did you factor in the cost of the entire freaking POT when you fold incorrectly...even once? i think you are now just being stubborn and trying to justify a poor play. look, bottom line: you WASTED a bet!!! if that bet was going in the pot, why not USE IT FOR A PURPOSE...like CALLING and SEEING if you can win the entire pot for sure. you are ASSUMING (i repead ASSUIMING) he would never in his life ever evere ver raise a hand you can beat. that is 0% so that if you bet you'll gain a bet when he has a calling hand and lose nothing (since you'd call anyway) when you fold to a raise.

but jimmy, even if you don't believe me...look at all of the regular posters here who are 100% dead set against this bet. then go to try to find ONE post thread where this many people are actually in agreement. since many plays can be done at different times in different ways it follows some will be close and even those that aren't that close can be looked at by different people in different ways.

this isn't one. everybody says it was poor river play. i know it was poor river play and if i reviewed my playbook and saw it i'd be ashamed. i hope you can open your mind a bit and consider you played it wrong. it will help you in the future.
-Barron

[andyfox]

I've read all the posts in this thread. I don't play Party 15-30, or any internet poker for that matter.

In the game I play, (30-60 or 40-80 B&M), I would bet this river most of the time. My opponent most likely either has the Ace, which I can possibly beat, or a big pocket pair, which he will most likely check behind when I've continued to call.

Now when I'm raised, I will call most of the time too. Unless it's a player I know has to have me beat. An unknown player I call. He knows, even if we've only played a few rounds, that I'm not a loosey-goosey and could lay down a hand on the river.

Calling the river raise is basically the old fruit plate/fur coat argument. If you're sure your odds of winning the pot are less than the pot offers, fold. But be very sure. You were there; we were not. So your assessment must carry more weight than ours.

If you've never laid down the winning hand, you probably have a bunch of leaks in your game.

[JimmyV]

Bumping because I'd like a couple more opinions. I respect Andy's assertion that this last choice is player-specific, but the other arguments aren't doing it for me. Most of them are just stating the obvious -- yes, it's true, I folded, and gave up on "the whole POT"; that's what folding IS. The choice to fold is what makes poker poker. No one has made anything like a plausible case about this basically reasonable player (who raised under the gun) who RAISES the river against a bet out of nowhere from the blind heads-up. What's going through his mind? I accept that some players are dumb, but to say that someone who raises utg and bets every street is probably on a bluff when he raises the river is a recipe for leaking away all your chips. You'll pay off in every scenario thinking this way, since semibluffs are even easier to see if you see a non-monster under the bed here.

Coilean, how can you possibly think he's going to raise KK in this spot 30% of the time, or even 3%? Would YOU raise KK, or even AK, facing an unexplained river bet from the blind with an Ace on board and a showdown just one call away? If you did raise, would you plan to call a 3-bet or fold to it?

Somebody play this hand in the other seat and describe to me what it's like to raise the river holding a hand that doesn't beat AJ. If you can make me picture that scenario as even five percent possible, then I'll start to open my mind to the possibility that I made a fur-coat mistake. (And incidentally, around here thirty bucks is four fruit plates.) (Also incidentally, with 10 big bets out there I need to be 'only' 92% sure of my read.)

Maybe the UTG player doesn't have the problem I have, of finding it tricky to read the blind hands in this 15-30 2-chip 3-chip structure. But it seems to me that both blinds sometimes play flop lotto in this style of game, and if I'm the one with the premium hand I'm rarely confident enough in my read to raise with just one pair on the river vs a blind. Other thoughts about reading blinds' hands?

Thanks for all feedback. I still like the way I played this, as you can tell from my stubbornness.


JimmyV

[astroglide]

i just looked at some of my notes on you (you're JimmyV on party right?), and suffice it to say it does not appear that you always play like this. awful early raises and cold calls with weak aces (many offsuit). what gives?

[JimmyV]

This is unaccountable. I've made maybe three cold-calls in the last month of playing, and all of them were with QKs, 99, or AQs in a multiway pot. Now and then at a tight table I'll try a steal from MP w A9o, but I've given up on doing that. Do you have any examples in pokertracker? I truly can't imagine what you're describing. Against a solid raiser preflop I've started folding AJ instead of reraising, and I haven't played an A below 8 without serious flush odds out of a steal situation in five months.

Any examples? Tell me what the note says exactly.