Hand to Talk About

[surfdoc]

Hi Mason,

First off, let me say how awesome it is that you created and actively participate in this forum. It is pretty amazing to be able to read your books and come online and discuss topics/hands directly with you. I also think this hand and the responses so far are interesting in that a few people have been willing to disagree with you. I think there is a bit of what I will call poster bias on these pages. (In this case maybe it would be Pooh bias) This is the idea that someone with a lot of posts and credibility around here can post a hand and get completely different responses than a newbie. I am sure that this has been discussed before but I just haven't seen it. I am also somewhat sure that when you explain your reasoning, the rest of us will nod our head and finally understand. (as usual) That being said, on to the hand.

Yuck! I agree with many previous posters that a bet on the flop is a must. It is like you are slowplaying a non made hand. Then, when the board pairs, you raise and I guess represent a big Pair, a made flush, or a 6. In this game, I am sure everyone knows you (even if you don't know them) and they have to know you will not check a big pair into a three [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] board. I also think they will have a hard time giving you credit for a 6 or a flopped flush. Therefore, you are very likely behind on the turn and even though you have plenty of outs, a non A or [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the river puts you in plenty of trouble. Do you fire out another one on the river, or check behind? I have a hard time believing your opponent called your turn raise with no pair.
I would like see a newbie post this hand in the micro forum. The flaming would be intense!

[Mike]

Being $80 - $160, I am guessing opponents are thinking on at least the second level. That being true at least for BB, the flop check scared him.

On the turn I would think the BB doubted his initial thinking and tested the waters. Your raise reminded him of his initial supposition.

His river check/fold must mean he either missed whatever he was hoping for (splitting with the straight?) and he couldn't beat QQ. A flush hand would not be played for normally so he should discount it.

Wish $4-8 was that easy...lol

[mike l.]

"Why didn't BB 3 bet then??"

because he's scared of the chance mason does really have a big hand. btw big hand here does not have to mean flush or full house or even trip 6s. big hand could still be big pair. that river bricks and bet you anything we see mason lose to a pair of Qs or Js more often than not.

"Coulnd't BB be bluffing?"

if he's bluffing then why would he call the turn raise? he would just fold. or he could be waiting to try and bluff the river, but wouldnt the river then be a terrific card to bluff on? he could also be drawing to something like KT or T9. but i think more often than not he has a pair.

[Piers]

I have to admit I am a flop better here. I just hate it when someone pairs up on the turn with random junk and takes my pot away. Or are you saying the blinds are too tight to do this?

[mike l.]

i think you guys are making too much of the flop check. it doesnt seem that strange to me, it's a check i make sometimes. it's important to vary your play and you gain little either way by betting or checking, it doesnt really matter.

[astroglide]

i supported the flop check. i didn't state or imply that it was strange. i disagree that it makes little difference, and i outlined why. are you replying to the wrong person?

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi surfdoc:

If a newbie posted this hand in the micro-limits he should be flamed. Do you see why?

best wishes,
Mason

[Garland]

Hi Mason,

I forgot to mention that maybe the turn would be a good time to call a bet, hoping for an overcall from the SB in case you make your hand. It's unlikely the BB is bluffing (he wasn't bluffing given the fact that he called your raise...but that information came retrospectively).

If you make your hand on the river and he continues to fire out at you, you can use your best judgment to raise to try to get one more bet from BB or try to get SB to overcall. I think that would be a good way to get more value out of it.

I guess the only real valid point to raising is as a semi-bluff. I don't know anything about the players and their capability to fold to a raise, but the only real reason to raise the turn from my view is to make them both fold right there and then.

Garland

[Depraved]

Not knowing the tendencies of the players involved, and also what you expect to achieve in future situations when you steal raise, my standard operating procedure would be to bet/raise the flop, check the turn, and fold the river unimproved.

I'd like my free card to be the most expensive one if possible.

[Ginogino]

Mason:
It seems to me you have to begin the analysis before the flop. What does your open-raise on the button mean to them? What will they re-raise with, and what would they fold?
The tighter they are, the higher the bar for both their re-raising and folding hands will be. The looser they are, the lower the bar for both kinds of hands. Also, do they know you, and how might this affect their game?
What do they take your open raise from the button to mean? What you'd open-raise with depends a good deal on the kind of players you're against, I'd think. Against players who fold too much, I think I'd open raise with QTs or pocket 5's or most A's. Against players who fold too little, I'd want KJs or pocket 6's or A9o or so (but this is very player dependent, and I'm not sure how much your game differs from the low limits where I play -- I know it's a lot, but don't know just what that means).

Against some players I could be sure that anyone with a Queen or Jack would take a shot at this pot by lead betting the flop. I'd think that some players might slow-play a flopped flush (though they'd be less likely to do so without the nut flush). You're the before-the-flop raiser; how likely are they to check to you on the flop out of habit? It's unlikely that you're against a set, as the monotone flop makes a set-holder fear a flush. So unless someone's slow-playing a flush (which I'd think improbable), what you are mostly against is hands that entirely or mostly missed the flop -- or that hold a singleton diamond worse than yours.
The turn 6h probably doesn't help anyone (it reduces the number of 6's in the unknown cards and there will be a reduced number of hands containing a 6 that the blinds will play, even against a possible steal-raise before the flop).
When the BB lead-bets on the turn, it sounds to me, then, more like a semi-bluff with a singleton diamond or maybe a straight draw or a small pocket pair.
You raise, and I'd think this has value both by reason of your nut-flush draw (other flush draws are drawing dead) and by reason of the chance that your Ace will win unimproved and by reason of setting up a potentially successful bluff attempt on the River (will he call you down if he has a tiny pocket pair? a pair of Jacks?).
Like many who have replied to your post, I'd be curious to know what you thought of the players in the blinds. And thanks for posting this, and all the other, hands.

Gino