5/10 Blind Defense (supposedly)

[AceHigh]

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I think this is tougher than some of the other posters are putting it.


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Me too. I would call down against an unknown player, or an aggressive player.

[Nottom]

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Of course it 'looked' like, say, AJ.
But with his play I think he could have flopped a monster, JJ/TT (and made a nice call of the flop 3-bet to raise the Turn).
Or he could have had AA, and gaveup a bet Preflop to make it up on later streets.
And that's not counting KQ and me drawing to 3 outs for a split.

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OK I'm just gonna look at some math here for no good reason.

You have 6 outs against TT, JJ, AJ, and AT (24 hands)
3 outs against AK (12 hands)
2 real outs and 4 splits (4ish outs) against AQ (6)
4 outs against AA (3)
2 outs against KK (for completeness) (6)
and of course the happy 3 outs to chop against KQ. (8)

Calculating all that out gives something like an average of 4 outs.

You are getting 9-1, but I can't imagine collecting more than 1 bet on the river. So at best your implied odds are 10-1. Since sometimes you will end up paying off the straight or trip aces when you spike a Q that makes it a bit worse. You are just under 11-1 to make you hand so I guess you made the right decision. If you would have felt the need to call the river when a blank fell, i think its an even clearer fold.

Nice fold, I don't think I could have done it.

[CrackerZack]

you have to call the turn raise. you can fold the river. I hate folding the river for one bet, but look at the flop, what can you beat? QJ? Is he that nutty? You may be splitting with another K or more with on the turn, but the range of hands he can raise from the cutoff is wide enough that I think you have to make the turn call and hope for the best if you hit a Q or K. I was on UB for a while tonight but now I'm too drunk to play well. I'll look for you tomorrow night when I'm on.

[CrackerZack]

i disagree based solely on what I will raise from the cutoff. He needs to call this turn raise. I've heard you're a rock unless you have 99 or its your home game [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[PocketRocketsBF]

I think you need to make sure you are mixing it up some. If you have been consistently laying down hands like this to position raises - you are going to need to call down some of them. If you don't, smart players are going to notice this and will attempt to run over you.

You said this player was loose. Could it be possible he has a KcJc? He's got top pair on the flop but backs down to the 3 bet. Raises the scare card on the turn (maybe you fold) and he's got a gutshot straight and flush draw.

[JohnShaft]

Thanks for all that nottom, that really helps. And it shows it is really close.

As for the fold it's not normally a fold I'd make. And if it wasn't for the fact that I've been making too many calls when I'm beaten lately I don't think I would have.

And calling the River bet. I don't know. If I see the River and I'm getting 11-1 I think that's a hard non-call to convince myself to make. With a made hand I usually don't call the Turn unless I'm calling the River.
So I think the fact I'd be so tempted to call the River I'm more comforted the fold probably wasn't a bad move.

[Vehn]

This is an impossible situation and there's no advice I can give you. Plus I'm drunk too.

that is all.

[JohnShaft]

I do think it's super-close. But, discarding he'd mess with you with a worse hand, nottom's analysis says I'm getting just the worst of it. And especially if I river a Q, and he has/makes the straight.

You said you disagreed with folding based on what you'd raise from the Cutoff with. But would be raising me on the Turn with a hand I beat when I've 3-bet you on the previous *two* streets? (Pretty easy for me to 3-bet him again if I have something like AA/JJ/TT)

On his part, it's a pretty smart move if he has KJ. But tbh I don't think he was capable of it.

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I was on UB for a while tonight but now I'm too drunk to play well. I'll look for you tomorrow night when I'm on.

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That's all I need a 2+2'er at the table! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
But if you turn up drunk we've got a deal. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[JohnShaft]

Thanks Pockets, I agree on the mixing up some.
But as one of my maxims is "I don't do strong folds headsup" the answer is no, I wasn't consistently laying down to position raises. I *over* calldown if anything (because I'm so tight preflop).
This may have even been the same session I called down a Turn raise with JJ on a QTxx board, only for a guy to River his semi-bluffed Flush/Gutshot draw.

Loose he was. But not neccessarily over aggressive. KJc? It's possible. KJ was the hand later that stuck in my head, but I think that's probably wishful thinking.
My educated guess is he really did have KQ. I think every street is consistent with a non-tricky/tough opponent playing it that way. If not that then AJ.
I'll never know though, sadly.

[Joe Tall]

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At times it feels like I'm calling down too much lately when I'm beaten.

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This is how I 'bleed' most of the time also.

It's close but folding has to be correct.

Peace,
Joe Tall