5/10 Blind Defense (supposedly)

[JohnShaft]

Having a bad run of things lately, and not sure if my game has been affected, which is the main reason I'm posting this.
At times it feels like I'm calling down too much lately when I'm beaten.

5/10 Online (UB) Typical (30%+)

Folded round to Loose CO he Raises
Folded to me I reraise in BB with Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
He calls. Headsup.

Flop T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
I Bet, He Raises, I 3-Bet

Turn A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
I Bet, He Raises...

[WillMagic]

Bleh, this is trouble.

I think he has an ace. I can't put a figure on how likely it is. But it seems pretty likely - the flop raise was testing you, but i think the turn raise is the real deal.

I think folding is the right move, but it's close.

Will

[Lost Wages]

You have an easy turn call with 6 outs (6.7:1) getting 9:1. If you miss, I guess you look him up.

Lost Wages

[JTG51]

At times it feels like I'm calling down too much lately when I'm beaten.

When I'm playing poorly that's almost always the biggest reason.

I think you can safely fold here. He's almost definitely got you beaten, and you aren't getting the right price to chase. You're getting about 9-1 for your gutshot which makes it close, but when you add in the fact that you'll probably only get one bet on the river if you hit, and that you could easily be drawing to a chop, it looks like a clear fold to me.

[Luke]

Hi John,

Yeah, I agree with Will, this is trouble. It's very close, but I think you have to let go of your QQ - not to say that I'd be able to do it in the heat of battle.

Luke

[JTG51]

You have an easy turn call with 6 outs...

It's pretty optimistic to say he's got 6 outs. He'll have 6 outs sometimes, but he'll also have 2 outs to chop sometimes and 3 outs to win sometimes.

If you miss, I guess you look him up.

What does look him up mean? If that means you are going to call the river even if you don't improve then you have a really easy turn fold since your odds are now more like 10-2 instead of 9-1.

[Lost Wages]

Yea you're right, fold the river if you don't improve.

I think the turn call is good though. What hands can you put him on? AA and KK are unlikely since he didn't cap preflop. AK is possible and that's the hand you fear most. Based on the action I think his most reasonable holdings are AJ or AT, in which case your outs are clean. Plus, you have a 2.3BB overlay for the times you're wrong.

Lost Wages

[JTG51]

I agree that AJ and AT are his most likely hands, but KQ is a real possibility also. I think his opponent will have AK or KQ often enough to make it a fold.

[MtSmalls]

I think this is tougher than some of the other posters are putting it.

"Folded to the CO", easily could be a blind steal. The fact that he calls rather than caps...

He raise/calls again on the flop, then raises again on the turn. You describe him as loose. I probably would have called the turn and check/called the River.

There are actually 11BB in the pot when you have to call the turn raise. I think you're good more than 20% of the time here, but I don't play 5/10 at UB.

[JohnShaft]

Thanks for the responses everyone.
FWIW I folded. And I didn't get to see his hand.

Of course it 'looked' like, say, AJ.
But with his play I think he could have flopped a monster, JJ/TT (and made a nice call of the flop 3-bet to raise the Turn).
Or he could have had AA, and gaveup a bet Preflop to make it up on later streets.
And that's not counting KQ and me drawing to 3 outs for a split.

Much, much later a little demon in my head whispered "If he had KJ he owned you".
But I think mostly I'm in a bad spot here. Pot odds are illusory because I could have *way* less outs than I need.

I think for once I likely made a smart fold. (With a slim chance he really outplayed me)