Pocket JJs Fcaes Turn Reraise

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i think people have this hand BACKWARDS. you pay this off WITHOUT a read. it is WITH a read whether to fold, cap the flop, see the showdown. it is HU and we have a showdown-worthy hand against an opponent we don't know who could be betting stupid with a small pocket or flush draw. i pay this off against an unknown.

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How is this a showdown worthy hand? All We've got is 2nd pair against a villian that called a 3bet preflop and then led and reraised the flop. Yes, I've seen people getting aggressive with underpairs and flush draws, but I think most people slow down with an underpair after a 3bet flop. After villian reraised the flop, I am willing to give him a lot of credit, unless he's shown me something different. Micro players are generally bad, but for someone to overplay an underpair this much would be maniacal. I don't see it happening often enough for calling down to be +ev without a read.

[NobodysFreak]

SB has the odds to bet a strong flush draw which could be an argument for raising the turn since we're unlikely to get 3-bet here by someone continuing to draw. We're likely to be 3-bet by something we're already beaten by. We lose the same amount if we raise the turn and fold to a three bet as we do if we call down and lose.

[@bsolute_luck]

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i think people have this hand BACKWARDS. you pay this off WITHOUT a read. it is WITH a read whether to fold, cap the flop, see the showdown. it is HU and we have a showdown-worthy hand against an opponent we don't know who could be betting stupid with a small pocket or flush draw. i pay this off against an unknown.

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How is this a showdown worthy hand? All We've got is 2nd pair against a villian that called a 3bet preflop and then led and reraised the flop. Yes, I've seen people getting aggressive with underpairs and flush draws, but I think most people slow down with an underpair after a 3bet flop. After villian reraised the flop, I am willing to give him a lot of credit, unless he's shown me something different. Micro players are generally bad, but for someone to overplay an underpair this much would be maniacal. I don't see it happening often enough for calling down to be +ev without a read.

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you're making judgements of what you think based on nothing. you don't know this guy as is the definition of "unknown".

why wouldn't he c/r the turn? why would he donk? with 2 Ks out there, it makes it less likely he has one, so having JJ is definitely a showdown hand. my question is: how does it NOT have showdown value and based on what?

[imported_The Vibesman]

Just an aside here, but I think a ton of opponents holding a K with this flop wouldn't go nuts until the turn. I actually find the flop 3bet a little suspect. Why not a check raise, with all this aggression preflop? If you do donk, why not just call the flop raise and check-raise the turn, further trapping your opponent? Why send up the warning flag right off the bat?

(note: I am referring to villian's play here, if that wasn't clear.)

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Just an aside here, but I think a ton of opponents holding a K with this flop wouldn't go nuts until the turn. I actually find the flop 3bet a little suspect. Why not a check raise, with all this aggression preflop? If you do donk, why not just call the flop raise and check-raise the turn, further trapping your opponent? Why send up the warning flag right off the bat?

(note: I am referring to villian's play here, if that wasn't clear.)

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Good point about the donk bet on the flop. I hadn't thought about it that way. I'm just trying to put villian on a hand that we beat, and can't come up with anything that makes sense. He wasn't afraid of our flop raise, and continued leading the turn. In my mind that makes the flush draw less likely (not impossible just less likely). I really can't see a reasonable villian playing anything but a k, set or FD this way and I'm discounting the flush draw because of the lack of fear towards our aggression. Anything else would require villian to be an aggro maniac, and while they exist, they are not the most common players. Also, I think an aggro maniac would have found a raise preflop. Help me put villian on a hand we beat often enough to justify the turn call.

[mojobluesman]

My feeling was that SB could have a pocket pair smaller than JJs but higher than a 4 and feel it justified a 3-bet on the flop. I think many players value their pocket pair more when the board also has a pair and their pair is higher than the 3rd flop card. Top two pair is pretty strong in that position unless your opponent has the 3rd K -in which case he will cap and you will know.

*grunch*

I play it the same way you do. Maybe he fastplayed a king (I doubt he would go so wild on a 4?) or has some other pocket pair or a flush draw (maybe with the ace of clubs?). But I'll pay it off.

BBB