When do you start to suspect a site?

[Inthacup]

It could also have something to do with the number of tables you play. Don't you play 3+? That has to affect your win rate. Try cutting back to 2 for a while and see if that helps.

[Prickly Pete]

If there's been no real change in the conditions in the 2 months (competition, possible tilt, etc), then why not look at as you are up $2500 over 234 hours? While that's probably still not enough data to say for sure, I'd bet that's a truer picture of where you really are than either of the 2 individual months.

[ramjam]

No, it doesn't seem totally exceptional to me. I don't know what your "real" win rate is or what your SD/hour is. If your SD were 10/BB hour (often quoted as a norm for full-table B&M play but online it's usually higher because of the quicker pace), your SD for 108 hours would be 104 BB. You're only down about 158BB. That would be pretty exceptional if your true win rate were as high as 1.91BB/hour but unless those 15/30 games are really soft and/or you're a real expert I susepct it's probably not.

[JohnShaft]

Lebron, I appreciate your position. I'm having somewhat of a sabbatical myself atm after running a little bad, so I know how you feel (though I'm sure we all do).

As for my angle, I don't think (given the limited numbers of hands you have played) anyone can say that the bad run you are getting is not exceptional, and that if you keep playing you'll keep winning like before.
Consider, that given you haven't played many hands, it is perfectly possible that the way you were playing previously might not be as long-term profitable as you think. Maybe you had more good luck (or what I prefer to call good timing) than you think. What if THIS is more a case of regression to the mean than bad luck?

I think that's the thing with a lot of new players making a killing at online poker atm. It seems even as beginners they're finding there way into 30/60 and above and making a killing there. They are then certain that they are a great player that is beating the game. Poker is a strange thing. Kill the game for 2 years then I'll start to be confident that you are what you believe you are (I don't mean *you* per se, just any hyper succesful online high-limit player).

I'll ask you a question, how certain are you that you are good enough to beat the 15/30 games you are in, as a new player?
Do you have doubts you've just had a good run of things? Is it almost solely bad luck atm that is causing you to get killed?

I wish I had an answer for you. My only answer is that the only thing any of us new players can do is keep playing until you have played (and won) so much for so long, that YOU have no doubts you have the best of it.

[mobes]

I think Party is making way too much money to veer let it be compromised by cheating. They gte caught once and they are done.

[rusty JEDI]

Go back to your 1/2 game and leave this thread to those who can add something to it.

Last i heard nottom was playing limits 3 times higher than you are at now.


But the main reason you get what you call these typical zoo responses is because we have been through your type before. Come in here starting off on a big rush and then disappear not only from the forum but from the tables they frequented. Perhaps we are to assume they made millions and no longer play poker at all. You of course may be one of the very few who really do keep it up but only time will tell.

[Lebronomania]

SD was 12.63 BB/Hr before this month. It is 12.91 now. Win rate before this month was 2.00 BB/HR. Right now it stands at 0.57 BB/HR. The problem with doing any sort of calculations is that sample size previous to this month was not significant ('bout 10k hands, 150 hours). And you certainly cant add this month's hands to create a significant sample size to find out if this month has been extraordinary.

If I had to guess, my true BB/HR winrate is around 1.5. I'd say that 1.0 is a low estimate.

[Lebronomania]

I have no doubt that I can beat the 15/30 game. At any given table, I am confident that I'm better than at least 8 of the other players. I play tight, I play aggressive. I do have leaks in my game, certainly, and I dont fancy myself a world class player. But I know I can win this game, both b/c history has born this out (I've played internet poker fairly intensely for over 4 years) and my game is textbook.

The thing is, whenever someone admits to having a bad time of it, people on this forum treat you like you have leprosy. Worse, they treat you like a child or invalid who doesn't know that he has leprosy. Its very frustrating. I'm not saying thats true of you at all; just generally this is true. I admit to doing this myself.

If you had seen the beats I've been taking, you would not doubt for a second that my assessment of myself is accurate.

[Lebronomania]

Well, I'm certainly glad you've been able to "type" me so easily. I mean, I'm 27 years old, and I'm still trying to figure out my place in the world. Maybe you can help. I majored in greek and latin at college, with a minor in history, graduating summa cum laude. Tho I was a shoe in to get into a very good grad school, having been the only American undergraduate that year to read both the Odyessey and Iliad in the orginal greek, I decided that I wasn't the classics "type", so I decided to forgo grad school. I took a year off, traveled Europe a bit (oh the debt!) and hiked 700 miles of the appalachian trail. But I decided that I wasn't the world traveler "type," so I decided to go to law school. So I attended University of Chicago school of law, where I exceled for my first year, despite a spotty attendance record. During my second year, I discovered poker, and my class attendance and, consequently, my grades slipped yet a bit more. By my third year, I decided I wasn't the law school "type", and I stopped going to class entirely. During my second year of law school, I got a job with a large firm in Cleveland for a summer, paying $110k a year pro rata. Tho getting paid $2k a week, I generally arrived to work just in time for lunch, and left work just after lunch. The firm and I both decided I wasn't firm "type."

So here I am now, trying to figure out whether I'm the type for poker. If your assessment is accurate, I might have more searching to do.

[Prickly Pete]

Well, you've established that you've won 0.5 BB/hr over 234 hrs and you've been playing for 4 months total. You post 'When do you start to suspect a site?' What do you expect people to say? That you've had an unreal run of bad luck? That you don't deserve all these bad beats? That Party figured you had won more than your share and was cutting you off?

Hope you didn't buy those front row Cavs season tickets just yet.