When do you start to suspect a site?

Lebronomania · #1 11-11-2003, 03:27 PM

I've never believed in conspiracies. I've never believed that any of the major sites are crooked. However, my faith does it have its limits, and this month is truly testing it. Check out the discrepancy between this month and last month at 15/30 Party-Empire:

Last month: 7,263, 8798 hands, 126.48 hours, 1.91 BB/HR, 2.75 BB/100
This month: (4,762), 7177 hands, 107.90 hours, (1.47) BB/HR, (2.21) BB/100

You know, its not so much 'bout how much I've lost. $5k is significant, but its not totally unexpected. If I lost $5k in one night, I'd just say, "oh well." But its the fact that I'm down $5k AFTER 108 hours. Some people dont play that much poker in a lifetime!

For the last week or so, I've just chalked it up to temporary bad luck. But at some point these constant bad beats will force me to make a decision. I still have a $6000 bankroll. If its just bad fortune, I'll continue playing and I'm sure I'll eventually win it all back and then some. But if theres something more sinister happening, I need to cash out this money immediately.

I've been playing poker for a living for almost 4 months now. I dont wanna give this up and get a "real job." Tho every fiber of my being is saying that something's terribly wrong here, I'm desperately trying to believe that I can still make money on Party. Please tell me I'm just being paranoid.

Lori · #2 11-11-2003, 03:30 PM

But its the fact that I'm down $5k AFTER 108 hours

Im afraid that 108 hours is still a tiny sample in LHE.

If this were not true, I'd rarely have a losing week.

Lori

Nottom · #3 11-11-2003, 03:36 PM

Maybe you aren't as good as you thought you were.

Bob L · #4 11-11-2003, 03:40 PM

You've been playing poker for a living for almost 4 months.Wow!-and your having doubts already.I'm sure i can speak for many who have done this for years when I think your jumping the gun a little.What happens when you run bad for a month or two?You play and you just can't win.You feel like your snakebitten.These are some of the things to deal with if your going to play for living. You better get used to it-its part of the game.Bad losing streaks is a big part of poker -its how you deal with them is whats the key.If after only 4 months you already have doubts then maybe your not cut out for poker.

Lebronomania · #5 11-11-2003, 03:47 PM

I know precisely how good I am. But thx for that stereotypical Zoo response. Did you just cut and paste that?

Nottom · #6 11-11-2003, 04:00 PM

People who like to accuse the sites of screwing them are rarely as good as they think.

Lebronomania · #7 11-11-2003, 04:03 PM

I appreciate the response. But I do think that this concern does not necessarily mean that I'm not cut out for a life of poker. It seems to me that the suspicion, if indeed unfounded, exists precisely b/c I've only done this for a living for 4 months. Without years of experience, its almost impossible to understand just how bad back luck can be.

I've probably played around 200k hands of poker in my life, only 'bout 30k hands at stakes as high as 15/30. I assume that if you've been doing this for longer, you've seen many more hands, and many more runs of bad luck. Have you had a month as bad or worse than the one I'm having now?

Honestly, I'm not looking for sympathy here. I just want someone to tell me that whats happening is not totally exceptional. If thats the case, I'll put aside my concerns and get back to work.

Nottom · #8 11-11-2003, 04:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Honestly, I'm not looking for sympathy here. I just want someone to tell me that whats happening is not totally exceptional. If thats the case, I'll put aside my concerns and get back to work.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you know your Standard Deviation and expected winrate? If so these questions can be answered quite easily.

HavanaBanana · #9 11-11-2003, 04:08 PM

You might have been found out by your opponents, maybe time to rethink strategy?

Lebronomania · #10 11-11-2003, 04:10 PM

That I might not be as good as I think I am is obvious. But that, starting with $1000, I've been good enough to pay my bills for the last four months, and build up a bankroll larger than the value of your car, is incontrovertible. Go back to your 1/2 game and leave this thread to those who can add something to it.