55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?

I wouldn't know about party, but if this happened in $55 Stars I would fold every single time. It's just not super likely to be ahead here. Early in tournament with no reads, you have to basically generalize how everyone plays. At Stars, I would say it's about 60/40 in your favor. That's not enough for me to shove my chips in when if I'm ahead, I'm about 7.5:2.5 while if I'm behind, I'm really toast. It's way close, and as such I am folding because I'm sure there will be better opportunities in the future.

As a side note, I would call every single time at $33s or lower.

[adanthar]

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While I do agree that the action is rather ugly and you say that the second raiser likely has you beat, what are you saying he has us beat with? K5 is fairly unlikely as a limp, although I've seen it happen, but I think he rarely has this. There is only one combo of 33 so we can almost ignore that. KK makes almost no sense being limped from his position pf. So we're really only leaving 55. I know I've said this a couple times in the post, but people are not responding to it and instead are just saying we're beat. We're basically only beat by 55 of which there are only 6 combinations. I can think of several more hands that raise there than just 55, especially at the donk filled $55.

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You're thinking about this a little bit wrong. If your opponent is not a total donkey postflop, you are beat, period, so the question is not about combos at all. It is 'what are the chances that this guy, who puts in a third, pot committing raise on a K53r flop, knows something about poker?' and I would say the answer in a 55 is 'high enough to fold'.

[bigt439]

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While I do agree that the action is rather ugly and you say that the second raiser likely has you beat, what are you saying he has us beat with? K5 is fairly unlikely as a limp, although I've seen it happen, but I think he rarely has this. There is only one combo of 33 so we can almost ignore that. KK makes almost no sense being limped from his position pf. So we're really only leaving 55. I know I've said this a couple times in the post, but people are not responding to it and instead are just saying we're beat. We're basically only beat by 55 of which there are only 6 combinations. I can think of several more hands that raise there than just 55, especially at the donk filled $55.

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You're thinking about this a little bit wrong. If your opponent is not a total donkey postflop, you are beat, period, so the question is not about combos at all. It is 'what are the chances that this guy, who puts in a third, pot committing raise on a K53r flop, knows something about poker?' and I would say the answer in a 55 is 'high enough to fold'.

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Fair enough. I'm not saying I'm definitively correct or anything, I'm just trying to generate a discussion people seem to be skirting around. I don't think it's that I'm thinking about it the wrong way (and I'd admit it if I was), but the unlikeliness of being beat in this hand in terms of hand probabilities is directly relevant to the 'what are the chances that this guy, who puts in a third, pot committing raise on a K53r flop, knows something about poker?' question, because weighing the two against each other is how you get your answer. Now your opinion is that it is not high enough and I completley respect that. I think that given the dead money it is high enough because I have seen moves like this, with a good K quite a bit in the $55's. I really don't respect the play there very much, for no other reason than I don't perceive the level of play to be very high.

Another point discussed earlier that was introduced by somebody else is that if this guy really was the semi-decent player we are giving him credit for being would he not smooth call with a set here? I wouldn't raise because no one is drawing and you have amazing position to extract the maximum by smooth calling here. Granted this point is a little iffy because I could see good players pushing here (and K5 should push here for sure), but it is relevant I think.

But this is the type of discussion I'm trying to get going.

[pineapple888]

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While I do agree that the action is rather ugly and you say that the second raiser likely has you beat, what are you saying he has us beat with? K5 is fairly unlikely as a limp, although I've seen it happen, but I think he rarely has this. There is only one combo of 33 so we can almost ignore that. KK makes almost no sense being limped from his position pf. So we're really only leaving 55. I know I've said this a couple times in the post, but people are not responding to it and instead are just saying we're beat. We're basically only beat by 55 of which there are only 6 combinations. I can think of several more hands that raise there than just 55, especially at the donk filled $55.

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You're thinking about this a little bit wrong. If your opponent is not a total donkey postflop, you are beat, period, so the question is not about combos at all. It is 'what are the chances that this guy, who puts in a third, pot committing raise on a K53r flop, knows something about poker?' and I would say the answer in a 55 is 'high enough to fold'.

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Fair enough. I'm not saying I'm definitively correct or anything, I'm just trying to generate a discussion people seem to be skirting around. I don't think it's that I'm thinking about it the wrong way (and I'd admit it if I was), but the unlikeliness of being beat in this hand in terms of hand probabilities is directly relevant to the 'what are the chances that this guy, who puts in a third, pot committing raise on a K53r flop, knows something about poker?' question, because weighing the two against each other is how you get your answer. Now your opinion is that it is not high enough and I completley respect that. I think that given the dead money it is high enough because I have seen moves like this, with a good K quite a bit in the $55's. I really don't respect the play there very much, for no other reason than I don't perceive the level of play to be very high.

Another point discussed earlier that was introduced by somebody else is that if this guy really was the semi-decent player we are giving him credit for being would he not smooth call with a set here? I wouldn't raise because no one is drawing and you have amazing position to extract the maximum by smooth calling here. Granted this point is a little iffy because I could see good players pushing here (and K5 should push here for sure), but it is relevant I think.

But this is the type of discussion I'm trying to get going.

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"The hand that can beat you, will beat you."

As a silly but illustrative example, what are the chances somebody has AA when you have KK? I mean, those hands only come up once every 221 hands, right?

But I see this almost every session (multitabling).

You can't ignore 33. You can't discount 55 as much as you seem to be.

You have to put your opponent on a range, and make the decision based on that range. If your opponent's range is [55,33], you should fold. I'm not saying that *is* the range, I'm saying that's the thought process.

[bigt439]

I understand what you're trying to say, but what I'm saying is that there are hands that you beat that are a part of his range. If you want to simplify it, he holds a hand that beats you x% of the time, and a hand that you beat y% of the time. It is relevant to establish the frequency with which hands in the 'hands that beat you' category are actually held by your opponent and comparing this likelihood against the chance your ahead. It is relevant to eliminate or severely narrow down the frequnecy for hands like 33 or K5 because these make up part of the 'hands you beat category', decreasing x and therefore increasing y because x + y = 1 (or 100%). The algebra is not complicated and may come off as fancy, but I thought it to be the easiest way to explain.

But you are right in that if you decide he holds 55 say 75% of the time, add a couple other percentage points in for outside shots, making x = 80% or something and that leaves you with y = 20%, then yeah you go with your read and fold. I'm trying to say that I think x and y are close enough that you should push (keeping in mind we have to factor in the dead money, chance of second dude calling, and equity when we're all-in, which I'm not going to do and am estimating).

wouldn't it be 6.5 5's pairing giving him k's and 5's with A kick agains k's and 5's with 3 kick... ?

[ezmogee]

I normally have a hard time folding top and bottom on the flop, but considering the way this hand sets up, i have a hard time seeing where youre ahead. The range of hands youre beating is AK and KQ, and 53. There's no flush draw to be pushing with.

I think I fold.

[bawcerelli]

I play weak tight, so I'm glad others here would also fold this too.

[Pudge714]

I agree with BigT you will see KT+ a lot more than most people have been giving credit for. You are only losing to 33,55,KK, and K5. Three of those hands are unlikely for reasons previously discussed.

Also what is the $EV of this call. Either if the middle player calls or folds. Obviously it depends on the OP's big stack play, but just a thought.

Actually now that I think about it I don't think the middle stack is calling you are probably beat. Unless he has a limped, and poorly played AK.