QQ blind defense hand

[SeaEagle]

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bet/calling the turn is much better than bet/calling the river.


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This isn't an either/or decision. Given Jake's hand range, even expanded by the hands I would add, you don't have sufficient pot equity to bet the turn. In fact, the situation is worse than Jake (and myself) presented because if you're behind you're not catching on the river very often, but if he's behind he probably has quite a few outs.

I'm bet/calling the river because the the turn was checked through and the river didn't make any plausible draws. So while I estimate we're only ahead 50-55% of the time on the turn, I think we're ahead almost all the time on the river.

[SeaEagle]

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I didn't interpret the read given as this guy being a pseudo-LAG. Kailia says he still retains TAG-like stats and abilities, which to me means once he caps preflop and on the flop the hands that you mention are not likely. But I guess this depends exactly on how we should interpret the read.

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Well, I didn't expand his range all that much. I don't have him capping PF w/ ATo like mtdoak's. But, really, an aggressive player is sometimes capping on a steal raise with more than just AK and big pairs.

[ErrantNight]

i didn't say that it was an either/or situation. in fact, i addressed precisely that in the post. i'm arguing if you do one or the other the turn bet/call is far superior. it is. you apparantly haven't read my entire post.

your equity on the turn is huge. you have a big overpair in a blind-steal situation. you're behind AA, KK, and TT. and ahead of a lot. your equity isn't great enough to 3-bet if raised, but it's CERTAINLY large enough to bet. which is almost beside the point. you use equity, typically, to determine when to raise. you're betting for more than value here. you're also betting to prevent a free card. which is huge. if villain is behind, he has, AT MOST, 6 outs, which is not precisely "quite a few" and you can take one look at the board and determine what those are.

i think bet/call might be in order on the river, regardless, but if your plan is check/call turn and bet/call river, a better plan would be bet/call turn and check/call river, and an even BETTER plan would be bet/call turn and bet/call river.

[ErrantNight]

all the more reason to charge him to draw

[SeaEagle]

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your equity on the turn is huge. you have a big overpair in a blind-steal situation. you're behind AA, KK, and TT. and ahead of a lot.

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EN, we differ on how often villian is ahead on the turn. Why don't you give me a hand range rather than just the generic "a lot"?

I've given my hand range for villian and, with my hand range, hero shouldn't be betting the turn.

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if villain is behind, he has, AT MOST, 6 outs, which is not precisely "quite a few" and you can take one look at the board and determine what those are.


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Maybe you should take a look at the board yourself. If villian is semi-bluffing, he likely has 12 outs (and he'll think he has 15).

[ErrantNight]

what hand does villain have that has 12, maybe 15 outs.

that's crazy talk.

ATo, AK, JJ are all every likely and would play the same

less likely, but possible:

AQ, 99

unlikely, but possible:

KTs, QTs, JTs (and of course the other QQ)

hands that beat us:

AA, KK, TT, 77

[ErrantNight]

also, you acknowledge that villain will raise with most hands that beat us. i disagree, i think he'll raise with all the hands that beat us. but i think he raises with hands we beat, too. it seems to me you're putting our chances of being ahead when we get raised on the turn at an exceptionally small percentage... and vastly overestimating how frequently we get raised on the turn, period.

i.e.: it sounds (and tell me if i'm wrong) like you're expecting since our plan is bet/call that we will be raised on the turn, and that further, we'll almost always be behind when this happens.

which are ludicrous ascertations. i think a strong percentage of the time here we bet the turn and are called and repeat on the river.

[SeaEagle]

Keeping in mind this is a "somewhat too loose and aggressive, but still retains TAG-like stats and abilities", i.e. a pretty decent player, I'm assuming he's capping with a reasonable set of hands PF. ATo wouldn't be in my range, but it doesn't miss by much. KTs and QTs aren't likely capping PF.
Besides, on the flop, you're getting getting raised by a T/decent kicker, but you're not usually getting capped. And no normal taggish player is capping with a naked AK on the flop.

So let's meet halfway and say his range is: AA-99, AK-AJ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], KQ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], ATo. This includes ATo and 99, which I think unlikely, but it doesn't include AQ, and T/decent kicker.

I'm not good enough at pokerstove to put this exact range in, but it appears your equity is going to be in the high 50's (help from a PS expert appreciated).

I also don't think that after the flop is capped and you still bet out on the turn that AT is raising you very often. JJ probably is, as is AA-QQ. And of course none of the draws are raising. And if you only have 57% equity, you don't have to be raised very often when you're behind to be making a bad bet.

[ QUOTE ]
what hand does villain have that has 12, maybe 15 outs.

that's crazy talk.


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And any A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] has 12 outs. Crazy as it sounds.

[Kailia Marie]

Hi everybody,

Sorry for the long hiatus. This hand is probably long forgotten but I'd like to discuss the possibilities on the river.

When he checks this turn, in my experience, it is rarely a made hand, most likely the nut flush draw with overcards. A pair simply can't give a free card on this draw heavy board (which unfortunately is what I did by checking the turn to him).

So the main question in the river is, what percent of the time will he have a missed draw and what percent of the time will he have a small-medium type pair that he was trying to get a showdown cheaply with?

And will he ever call with ace high here? (Given how the flop was played I don't think it will).

So that basically leaves us with whether or not we have a value bet or a spot to induce a bluff. Unfortunately, thinking about the hand again, a player who will bluff the river unimproved would seem to most likely fire again on the turn, as it is more convincing.

It really didn't feel like he had a hand here so I checked expecting him to either check behind and give up or bluff.

He had A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and I won the pot.

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Kailia

[Klak]

am i the only one that thinks he played it well? (except not betting the flop.) i think check/calling the turn and river accomplishes 2 things. 1. it loses you less vs AA and KK and 2. it induces a bet from weaker hands. just my opinion.