folding trips after the flop - Page 7

tdomeski · #61 10-08-2005, 02:45 AM

The thing you don't understand (or don't seem to understand) is the MATH is pretty much all you need to make your decision.

You put your opponents on a range of hands, you see if your hand has a positive equity versus that range, weigh in your risk of ruin. Weigh the equity of having 4500 chips at this stage in a tournament and how that will help you in the tournament and then make your decision. I think you are being too critical on not only everyone here, but also yourself.

What I meant when I was talking about the kill cards was just trying to show you that even the small percentage of the time you are behind you have an incredible redraw to kill the pot right there. When you go in ahead they don't have that luxury. I don't know about your background in Omaha, but if you have any this point should be relatively obvious, thus making your call VERY EASY.

xrongor · #62 10-08-2005, 02:52 AM

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Wait, you thought you were beat? Did you put UTG on A4 or 46? THAT takes skill

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You *may* be behind but you probably aren't.

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you said both of these things in response to a somewhat similiar situation that was presented.

how come when that guy has apparantly done it you simply say it takes SKILL. but when i say i attempted it im ridiculed? you are denying me any ability and that is what has me upset.

imho how far behind i am or am not, is more dependant on the read of the situation than simply looking at your 'outs from flop to river' chart dictate.

xrongor · #63 10-08-2005, 02:55 AM

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even the small percentage of the time you are behind

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how small or large that percentage is, is debatable. well, it would be but nobody wants to debate it. insulting me is much more fun [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

xrongor · #64 10-08-2005, 03:00 AM

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When you go in ahead they don't have that luxury.

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im not sure what this means. i had exactly two opportunities to bet that hand. nobody has questioned my raising from 20 to 100 pre flop so if you are saying i should have pushed all in pre flop i disagree.

the second play i had both players acted before me and i had no options to 'go in ahead'. it was call or fold. had there been some opportunites for raising, reraising, etc... i would have taken them into consideration.

im not sure what you mean by this.

tdomeski · #65 10-08-2005, 03:01 AM

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i get dealt KK on the button and raise it up to 100 from 20, bb calls and another limper calls.

flop comes down KQT with two diamonds. bb goes all in! the other guy calls!!!

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You are ahead of BB here 100% of the time. Because of this (meaning the other guy realizes BB can't have a straight here) the other guy's hand range is a lot wider than the straight. I'd say the other guy has you roughly 20% of the time, maybe less. Obviously this is debatable and no one can actually give you the exact percentage of the time you are ahead. This is rough but I think it's fairly accurate based on my experiences.

Again this hand is really quite easy in an online poker tournament with fairly shallow stacks. Now if this was a WPT event 200 BB's deep with fairly skilled players than a discussion could be spurred. But it isn't. This hand isn't even close.

xrongor · #66 10-08-2005, 03:01 AM

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I think you are being too critical on not only everyone here, but also yourself.

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you are probably right... ill try to tone it down.

tdomeski · #67 10-08-2005, 03:04 AM

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'go in ahead'

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= when cards are flipped your hand is best (ahead).

This means that everytime you call their all ins and you have the best hand they have at most 1 out to kill the pot on the turn (smaller set or straight flush draw).

xrongor · #68 10-08-2005, 03:04 AM

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Obviously this is debatable and no one can actually give you the exact percentage of the time you are ahead. This is rough but I think it's fairly accurate based on my experiences.

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i can respect that. and will give it honest consideration.

thx

xrongor · #69 10-08-2005, 03:21 AM

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You are ahead of BB here 100% of the time. Because of this (meaning the other guy realizes BB can't have a straight here) the other guy's hand range is a lot wider than the straight.

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just to give you a better idea of where i was coming from as i was playing the hand:

as you say, its almost 100% the first guy doesnt have a straight and i am well ahead. but with that board out there and two to act, he has something. imho he wanted to be called on his all in. so for the second person to call, he must have thought he had a better hand than the first persons good hand. thus increasing the likelyhood of having AJ.

he limped in from mid/late position pre flop then called the raise to 100. which also seemed like an AJ move to me.

right or wrong, that was my thinking.

tdomeski · #70 10-08-2005, 03:28 AM

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but with that board out there and two to act, he has something. imho he wanted to be called on his all in.

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I don't think he "wanted" to be called. If he "wanted" to be called he would have c/r all in on the flop. As it is I don't think he minds being called but definitely doesn't "want" to be called. What does this mean? Most likely pair+straight draw or pair+flush draw or straight & flush draw.

The other guy that call recognizes this as well and either made a call with a similar type hand or is just the type to gamble with the nut flush draw.

I also think you would be surprised how often AJ would open raise here in this position (he was the first one in the pot, correct?).

This is the last post I'm making regarding this hand, going to bed.

Good luck man.