folding trips after the flop

xrongor · #1 10-07-2005, 03:54 AM

Hey all. this play has been bugging me for weeks and weeks. just wondering what you all think.

its the very beginning of the tournament and blinds havent gone up yet at all. a few hands in i get dealt KK on the button and raise it up to 100 from 20, bb calls and another limper calls.

flop comes down KQT with two diamonds. bb goes all in! the other guy calls!!! this is really bad. i have absolutely no reason to think either of these guys has anything less than the straight draw. my gut is saying flush draw is live. so im thinking i only have 100 chips in this and i'd rather just dump the hand. no need to take that risk now. i might be up against a made straight, anything is possible.

so yes. i folded my three kings.

as it turns out BB had the KJ giving him top pair and the straight draw which he hit when an ace fell on the turn, and the other guy had an ace flush draw (and of course the gutshot possibility) which he hit on the river.

so what do you think. call or fold here...

ansky451 · #2 10-07-2005, 04:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hey all. this play has been bugging me for weeks and weeks. just wondering what you all think.

its the very beginning of the tournament and blinds havent gone up yet at all. a few hands in i get dealt KK on the button and raise it up to 100 from 20, bb calls and another limper calls.

flop comes down KQT with two diamonds. bb goes all in! the other guy calls!!! this is really bad. i have absolutely no reason to think either of these guys has anything less than the straight draw. my gut is saying flush draw is live. so im thinking i only have 100 chips in this and i'd rather just dump the hand. no need to take that risk now. i might be up against a made straight, anything is possible.

so yes. i folded my three kings.

as it turns out BB had the KJ giving him top pair and the straight draw which he hit when an ace fell on the turn, and the other guy had an ace flush draw (and of course the gutshot possibility) which he hit on the river.

so what do you think. call or fold here...

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This is a horrid fold.

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so im thinking i only have 100 chips in this

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That is irellevent, its in the pot, its not yours.

[ QUOTE ]
i might be up against a made straight, anything is possible.

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Extremely unlikely though. You are basically getting odds in a 3 way pot with top set there, even if up agaisnt a straight, to draw to a full house.

Your play is the ultimate weak tight decision.

xrongor · #3 10-07-2005, 05:53 AM

forget the poker calculator. in my mind, it all comes down to what you think the chances of AJ were.

i guess i better be careful how i word things when i jump in the shark tank. i know the 100$ was gone. i just didnt anticipate how hungry the sharks were to jump on my casual wording. let me clarify.

against a made straight it was an even money call except for the 310$ already in the pot and a couple % more. it seemed VERY likely one of them had it. i had 1400 in chips left and no reason to think i couldnt outplay my opponents later without going in right here.

even with only both draws out there (and i was certain i was up against both, and was right) i still only had a 52% chance of taking that pot. and a 48% chance of going out. tournaments dont pay if you go out...

combine the two possibilities and this pot didnt seem so juicy any more. call me weak tight, but this just didnt seem like the time to call into what at first seems like a huge advantage, but really was probably more like 60/40 in terms of expectation.

i made the read, it was wrong. i had two guys all in before me, and you dont think i had any reason to think i was up against AJ? it hardly seems the 'ultimate weak tight play'. my only options were to overcall for all my chips or fold.

sorry if i sound defensive. i guess i expected more from people here than just a poker calculator and insults. i could get that at RGP [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

zoobird · #4 10-07-2005, 06:31 AM

I get frustrated by the tone of a lot of the replies here too - but the advice is worth is, and ansky is someone who knows what he's talking about. Actually, the 'poker calculator' is exactly what you need to think about if you're trying to figuring out the chances of someone having AJ. The way I see it, this early in the tournament there are plenty of players who don't know what they're doing, so even a good player might be going all in with any hand they think they're ahead hoping to get called w/garbage. Very likely hands for your opponents include AK, KQ, KT, QT, TT, and AJ. Maybe KJ with a flush draw too. And I suppose something like JTs wiht a flush draw. Anyway, the point is there are LOTS of hand they could have and you're probably ahead of all of them except AJ. If its the first few hands of the tournament, someone could have complete junk. This is definitely worth the risk.

ansky451 · #5 10-07-2005, 07:05 AM

Sorry for being harsh.

Obviously you were there, and you have a better sense of the hand, and what you were up against.

However, normally up against this action AJ is EXTREMELY unlikey IMO from the SB, and also pretty unlikely for the bb. People just dont push for ridiculous overbets into a preflop raiser with the nuts. Usually its a semi bluff, or a vulnerable made hand (bottom 2, set on coordinated board etc).

As for this comment: [ QUOTE ]
even with only both draws out there (and i was certain i was up against both, and was right) i still only had a 52% chance of taking that pot. and a 48% chance of going out. tournaments dont pay if you go out...

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Ok. You need to reavaluate your understanding of pot equity and poker. If you have 50% equity against 2 opponents, and you are getting a 3 way all in pot, its a no brainer call. You can't wait for a better edge than this, ESPECIALLY in an online tournament with the fast blind increases. If a similar situation like this ever comes up, you should be jumping out of your seat. A 50% chance to triple up is great.

You can't just say "if I call and lose I'm out, and therefore can't make $" You also won't go deep at all if you are folding hands like this, because you never will accumulate.

Everyone likes to think they have a significant edge against their opponents, and that they can wait for a better spot, but usually they are wrong. Your edge comes from recognizing hugely +EV situations like these, and exploiting them, because if you fold, you arent outplaying them, they are outplaying you. Early in a tournament, unless it was a super slow structure against a total donk field, I wouldn't pass up ANY edge, especially one this good.

You have to be willing to go broke at any pt in a tournament, or else you will never see the results you want to. Make the tough calls, and live with the results.

xrongor · #6 10-07-2005, 07:27 AM

sorry i snapped at you too. ive just had some bad experiences with forums in the past...

i think i was reading too much cloutier that week too [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] i was fully aware of the odds the pot was laying me to make that boat..

had i called i would have lost. i know this means very little as hindsight is 20/20, but im tellin ya, every bone in my body said get the hell out of here and that feeling has a good track record. this just seemed like a good time to win by letting one of the other two knock each other out.

i dunno. live and learn. if it came up again i'd call. i think i would have even before posting. in a cash game i'd call all day every day.

xrongor · #7 10-07-2005, 07:35 AM

ps... i guess it just comes down to an internal conflict. my brain knew the odds. my heart, soul, the magic 8 ball, and everything else were telling me to fold. i had to choose one. now i gotta live with it even though it turned out to be the right choice...

ah, love the poker!

Melchiades · #8 10-07-2005, 07:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone likes to think they have a significant edge against their opponents, and that they can wait for a better spot, but usually they are wrong. Your edge comes from recognizing hugely +EV situations like these, and exploiting them, because if you fold, you arent outplaying them, they are outplaying you.

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This should be made a sticky.

xrongor · #9 10-07-2005, 07:45 AM

pps... see how this hand works on my mind???

i also just wanted to mention that as you say, i had figured the first guy going all in (the bb) had a vulnerable hand and i figured i had him beat (which i did as he had the KJ). but for the second guy to call with the preflop raiser still to act (he wasnt the sb, he was a preflop limper in early/mid position that called the raise), thats what had me freaking out.

man i gotta just let this one go [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

#10 10-07-2005, 09:07 AM

Even if you're up against a made straight and a flush draw you are still a 35% chance to win. Good enough to put your chips in.

If you are up against a straight draw and flush draw you are 52% to win.

It was a weak tight play.