folding trips after the flop

[nath]

Wait, you thought you were beat? Did you put UTG on A4 or 46? THAT takes skill. I don't think I could ever do that. If he's beating my set I go broke approximately 100% of the time there.

I put him on one of 4 hands, AA, 22, 33, or A4. Too much of a reraise for really any other hand. I probably could have eliminated AA also, cuz AA might want to bet out with a flush draw out there. I couldn't put him on exactly that hand, so I made the push, but that was the only hand I was at all worried about. Since the raise was so big, I thought about it before I acted, and asked myself what he would limp reraise with. Obviously he was going for a check raise too, and when I check raised, he knew no hand had him beat then, cuz I was UTG. Still, there was a chance I was way ahead of 22 or 33, and if I was behind, had a ton of outs.

No way he had 46 in UTG, just couldn't see him playing that.

[Lloyd]

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We really need a mod.

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I have read through all of the posts. Frankly, I don't care if somebody comes onto the forum, makes a post, and then disagrees with what everyone else says. When that happens to me (responding to a post and having the OP disagree when I'm clearly right) I just move on and don't waste anymore of my time. I suggest people who have a problem with his defensiveness do the same.

I have deleted a couple of posts that were blatant flaming. That's not allowed and if it continues the flamer's posting priviliges will be suspended or revoked.

[nath]

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I put him on one of 4 hands, AA, 22, 33, or A4.

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Yeah, and you're way ahead of three of those, which is why you called his push. You *may* be behind but you probably aren't.

[xrongor]

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Frankly, I don't care if somebody comes onto the forum, makes a post, and then disagrees with what everyone else says

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sometimes thats the best way to get to the heart of things. by my thinking, if i was so obvioiusly wrong to fold, it would be fairly simple to give a real explanation of why it is so. everyone thats run through the scenareos so far has come up with the same conclusion i have. the key to this hand is how likely is it that you are up against AJ.

some people think it is silly i would put someone on AJ here. others think its a bit more likely. i can respect that. and some people would call here even with a 51/49 situation. ive seen evidence that both work, and none that either is so clearly better. i definitely know that for myself i do better if i tend to deny these calls early. all i can say is i played it like it felt and was wrong. im trying to learn from that.

it troubles me that this has gotten to such a personal level and im trying not to get upset about it. i mean lets face it. lets say that every time i was in this situation i folded and forfeited 1/15 of my stack. it will have almost zero effect on my total ev. im sure i have other holes in my game far greater than this.

the conclusions being drawn about me based on the information i have given seem much more far fetched than me thinking i had a high chance of being up against AJ.

[nath]

I haven't really taken a crack at explaining so I'll give it a shot as simple as I can:

Given the shape of that board and the nature of the betting, I think you can expect to see a combination of straight draw or flush draw and worse set or two pair that, in conjunction with the chance you are up against AJ but still make your full house, makes this a profitable call in the long run.
In other words, perhaps he had AJ this time, but if you ran into this exact same betting and board repeatedly you would find yourself ahead rather often or redrawing for the win enough to make up for those times he does have AJ and you don't improve.

[xrongor]

see. we almost agree even.

knowing nothing at all about what my opponents may have had, a call was certanly warranted. (well, semi unknown really, i think its safe to say both callers were narrowed down to say 8-10 possible holdings). ive never said otherwise nor would i.

but i did have information. whether or not i interpreted that information correctly is certainly up for debate. the fact that i tried, and failed, and am being ridiculed for it, baffles my mind.

but i can respect your opinion. if you think the chances of AJ were low, thats your read. and if anything thats what i seem to be getting out of this. the general concesus seems to be that the chances of AJ were much less than i thought they were.

[tdomeski]

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im starting to think i wandered into the freeroll forum...

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I'm guessing that is supposed to be a personal attack against me. I don't really care, nor have the time to get into a verbal altercation. Although you aren't being very willing to learn (which is why I assume you came to this forum), so what exactly did you post this hand for?

[xrongor]

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Even if they both have strong draws (which they did) you still have 7 kill cards on the turn and 10 on the river

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i am sorry if you think i went to far. i was under a bit of stress when i accused you of being a freeroller.

nonetheless, if you think i had 7 outs on the turn and 10 on the river to make a boat or better, i dont think you are thinking the hand through very well.

why did i post this hand? i guess ultimately the issue of reading someones hand would be addressed. instead it has become somethin else revolving around the math. i know the math. i think we all know the math. its not that hard.

im trying to work past the math.

as i said to lloyd in an email, i guess this is what happens when you put a bunch of ultra competative people in a room together. some fur is gonna fly. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

After reading this entire argument, you have blindly argued that you made the right call and you want a cookie for it, let me be the first to say you made the right call.

Chocolate chip cookies, just like grandma makes em (;.

More where that came from.

Ok, I still think ur fool.