folding trips after the flop

[rockythecat99]

dude sorry for that amount putting up here but you basically called me a fish. Saying you wish to see me at the tables. Anyway I should be a bigger man that that and apologize.

[gobboboy]

I really would like to see a moderator come in here and give you a talking to. Seriously, everyone here is giving you great advice and you just came in here to disagree with people telling you how you played the hand wrong? Why the hell did you come in here in the first place? To get people to tell you that you made an AWESOME fold with top set on the flop? Your equity was probably at least 50% in the situation, and any equity above 40% is an auto call.

If you're not going to listen to reason, get the hell out of our forums.

[MLG]

[xrongor]

im sorry im getting so cranky too. im just frustrated. clearly there is more going on here than just a 2-1 hit the boat shot but so far only one person seems to have acknoledged it.

my odds depend on what cards i think im up against. there is very real possiblity im throwing my money into an almost even money call with with an expectation of 103$ (if im up against a made straight, and all my outs to a boat or better are live, calling this bet is an even money play except for the 310 already in the pot. 2 times i would lose it, one i would win, making a net expectation of 103 per hand.

so risk my tournament for 103$ in chips. again. the accumulators would find this acceptable. the survivors probably wouldnt.

at a cash game this seems acceptable. at a tournament it seems questionable.

if in addition to being up against a made straight, even one of those 10 outs by the river is gone as i suspect it is (because its likely one of my drawing opponents has also paired the board in addition to their draw. i could also be up against qq or tt which leave me only 8 ways to boat or better should i need to), suddenly this is a losing play. again assuming i KNOW im up against a made straight.

so it starts to come down to that AJ and what you perceive your chances are of being against it. and while you may question my read, at the time i felt pretty sure it was out there.

accumulator/survivor debate aside, you at least agree with me so far dont you?

[xrongor]

[ QUOTE ]
Your equity was probably at least 50% in the situation, and any equity above 40% is an auto call.


[/ QUOTE ]

this is doubtful as i have explained over and over. quite possibly i had NO equity in this pot. i give up.

[gobboboy]

What the hell are you talking about? Even if some of your outs to your boat are gone (which is possible, but invariably is true in ANY hand) you are then able to account for the 10 or so cards that are NOT outs that are not in the deck for you to get, so it works out proportionally. I don't understand how it's possible for you to have 0 equity in this situation.

We really need a mod.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
quite possibly i had NO equity in this pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

"You keep using that word. I do not believe it means what you think it means."

[illegit]

I have the 3rd nuts. Unless I know my opponents only make these plays with a straight i.e. I have hard evidence they're not donks, I call in a heart beat. Even if they have the straight I can pair the board.

[gobboboy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
quite possibly i had NO equity in this pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

"You keep using that word. I do not believe it means what you think it means."

[/ QUOTE ]

[play2win]

Okay, if you are really interested in other players opinions let's get back on track.

Let's all not get so defensive here.

What do you we know here:

1. You have one limper:

we wern't given any info about his position, play to up to now, chip count, etc.

I like knowing this because if he is a good player, deceptive, etc he might limp UTG with a big hand. Or he could be a tard and be doing anything.

anyways......

you raised, pretty straight forward here. The BB calls, so I take this as a straightforward case of "he had a hand worth calling". I don't know of defending his blinds because there has been a limper, so a steal from the button play was probably eliminated from his thought process.

So what hand might be worth calling to an otherwise unknown early in this level buy-in?

Some suited face cards? mid PP? Maybe worse....who knows. You have pocket kings, you should be happy to get a little action from one or two people.

The flop: It is not picture-esqe but man......you just hit top set! So what happens next, first guy moves all-in, other guy calls......could it be better?

In my mind this would be like making eye contact with a hot chick and having her take off all her clothes and pounce on me: no work required and I get everything I want. You didn't have to do any elaborate plays, check raising or anything at all for that matter. These guys just did exactly what you should have wanted them to without breaking a sweat. It might make you feel a little nervous, but this is what you should want!

But still, you think about this and what can your conclusions be?

1. They both have paint cards, hit two pair, top pair, straight draws most definitely: all of these are great for you!

2. Possible flush DRAW, maybe with a pair and straight draw (probably the worst case): still you are ahead! Then you have to eliminate some outs for them because they will also give you a boat or you will make it otherwise! But right now you KNOW you don’t even need to hit it!

3. Someone has hit a lower set (I would have thought one of them might), they know someone is on the draw and wants to take them out. : This is awsome for you!

4. The AJ. Now I have been beat up for suggesting tight(er) moves on this forum, but if you really worry about someone flopping the absolute nuts if you have a set you are going to lose and you paranoid mind will consume your play. You play should indeed shift at various stages of the tourney. I play rather tight, especially preflop early on. But it is a rare day I fold a set with a PP on the flop (probably never will).

So what is the problem here? It sounds to me like you are uncomfortable with the $$ buy-in. You should never play at a level where your play will be affected because you feel uncomfortable. I don’t care who says different, folding top set in this situation is wrong. This is such a great spot for you. You might get knocked out, but that is part of the game and you have too much information here to worry about that. I would call both of them with a huge smile on my face and I would also probably have some sort version of the “Windmill Slam” that gobboboy suggests (I think I am going to have to use this in live games and verbally announce “Windmill” when I do it).

Lots of advice on this forum speaks of EV almost like it is in the context of a cash game, not a tournament structure. I am more of a survivalist in the early stages, so sometimes I disagree with them. In the end they will take a 1st or 2nd more and survivors will cash more and the final $$ aspect is pretty close (assuming skill and everything else is equal). This is just variations in playing style and goals for your tourney outcome, neither are right or wrong.

Now, following your “gut” is a great poker “gift”. Not everyone has it or listens to it, or they do and it sucks. You listened to your and it paid off…..sweet. I find I follow “gut plays” more in live games when I have tells and reads on people. Online it is hard to tell what players are up to unless they are the extreme “kamikaze” or “rock”. Nothing in the post leads me to believe these guys are either. I don’t know about you, but I have a hard time figuring out which card will fall off next. But nevertheless “gut play” is an important aspect to a winning game, there will always be a few that come out if you are going to beat a field of 1000+ players.

So, kindly, not to offend anyone, I know it would have lost………..I would have “Windmilled” my Kings, big-time and every time. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]