Flopped a set of 4's - looking for feedback on extracting value

[POKhER]

All the maths is cool sure, But his play doesn't look like AK to me.

i smell AA/KK/QQ, KK/QQ i dont see raising a river.

I do see AA getting scared of OP's turn raise(Set/2pair) and calling down unless spiking pair.

AS i said in my other post, I play this differently.

[Koss]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with it that I don't see other posters taking into account is his calling your turn checkraise, I think vilian folds AK / AQ most of the time here unless they're spades. This would make 3 betting the river very marginal at best without one or more donks along for the ride. If we could assume he always folds AK / AQ that aren't spades to a turn checkraise (I don't think we can be that certain.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's more likely he checks AK or AQ on that board. I've got to go with POKhER on this one. This guy is not very aggressive. If he had checked the turn the popped the river when you bet into him after the A hit, I could advocate 3-betting, but not in this situation. The way he played the hand I'm discounting AK or AQ almost entirely. No way would this guy 3-bet the river with TPTK after that turn check-raise. He has AA. Maybe I'm just paranoid, but I can't see this guy playing the hand the way he did and having anything other than AA.

[Student Caine]

Keeping in the spirit of my current 100BB slide, villain had AA and did in fact river his 2-Outer.

Thanks for the feedback all.

Looking back, I may donk the Turn and hope for the opportunity to 3-bet this one (as unlikely as that is)

I may also C/R the flop here (my standard line), but as passive as this guy is I think he just calls me down from here and I lose the Turn C/R.

Some people also mentioned the possibility that the Turn might check through....as passive as this guy was I don't see him betting a draw on the flop, especially not into potential raisers, so I figured that if he bet the flop he would bet the turn as well and give me the opportunity to C/R. Maybe if he had A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he would check through the turn, but I was willing to take that chance he did not have this 1 combination here.

Not surprising. I do think someone with those stats could play AK / AQ spades the same way, but that still doesn't make a river 3 bet +EV.

I was thinking about the hand some more, and once both MP's have folded, calling and donking the turn in this situation seems like the strongest line. It tends to get the maximum number of bets in whether villian has a pair or AK. If villian has AK, checkraising the flop and leading the turn, or calling and checkraising the turn likely results in him putting the hand down on the turn. We don't want that to happen, AKo is dead and we want him to see the river and pair or make a desperate call without one hoping hero missed some draw. If he has a pair, we have a good chance of 3 betting the turn. Potential downsides are that he might not raise with a pair, or might fold AK to the turn bet that he would have bet/folded, but overall, we get more bets this way. Donking the turn also gives hero a much better idea of where he stands when raised on a river A or K.

Hope your cards improve...

[Student Caine]

In regards to the implied odds, what I meant was that I wanted to make the fact that I had called the flop even better by extracting more during the hand (i.e., I wanted to say “I would have only won 10.0 BB, but by check-raising the turn I won 10.5 BB!), that is what I meant by “making my implied odds better”. I wanted to be able to justify my semi-loose preflop call even more.

Now that I think about it, that is probably the stupidest reason there could be for waiting until the turn to C/R. My goal should be to win as much money as I can from the hand, but not so I can look back and say “calling with those 4’s was the right move!” (even though it should be the right move).

Sorry for the confusion.

[Luke]

Not much to say about the hand except that preflop is an insanely easy call IMO.

I'd be calling in this game with one less caller and think most of you should be too.

Luke

[Poker Junkie]

Great post! Sorry about the current downslide but with reading your thoughts I imagine it's just variance. I'm sure that someone who puts as much thought into things as you seem to will stop the -ev slide in no time.