Call flop? Call river?

[Robb]

I think it's close but that doesn't mean I don't think it's poor. An EP hand of ace high isn't calling for one bet anyway with you overcalling so we're not worried about that hand. If turn bettor (UTG+1 I think) has a hand like 88 he's got to be awfully confused by your hand. He's gotta think either you have a weird two pair or you're trying to move him off his hand. (Of course you have a straight but a straight and a set would be unlikely given how the action went).

So I think there's a fair chance UTG+1 calls two and a more than fair chance button calls you with as little as ace high if UTG+1 doesn't call two cold.

[catlover]

Flop -- you are getting 15 to 1 with two backdoor draws. This is actually a math problem that can, and should, be done more precisely than it usually is. There are 5 spades that don't give you a straight draw, 4 spades that do give you a straight draw, 6 non-spade OESD cards, and 6 gutshot cards. It ought to be able to work out the EV of your hand on each of those cards and come up with an overall EV to see if this call is worth it or not.

River -- I think you should have raised. I know you were going for overcalls. But sometimes someone will call your raise. Also, by raising, the initial bettor may reraise and now you win 4 bets.

[sfer]

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Flop call is a little too thin isn't it? Getting 14:1 on about a 2 outer, right?


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But the pot is 5 ways, you're closing the action, the bets are doubling, and the turn will give you 8 to 15 outs if you improve.

[pfkaok]

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I would likely fold the flop here, but running it through twodimes I think your decision is a very very good one as your pot equity is around 10%, even against people who already have a pair of Queens or Tens, even against two pair, you close the betting and you have position. Even against trips you are only at 7 or 8% and the call is easily merited.

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Well, this would only be true if the flop bet put him allin, and he got to see 2 cards for the 1 small bet. here you only have 2- 2 1/2 outs as you're likley going to have to call another bet on the turn. doesn't seem like 15:1 is quite enough, but if you know there'll be 3-4 callers on the turn, and 2-3 on river then that could probably sway the decision to a call.

[DeeJ]

Agreed, but everybody elses' pot equity at the flop is also based on the same principle. It's a reasonable guide to your chances, especially for 1 SB in 14.

The pot equity is mostly based on his ability to pull a flush or straight out of the bag. He will know if he has odds to call on the turn oesd or flush draw (even accounting for the single SB he's invested he has to make up) and these are big bets. I'd do the math but someone else probably already has [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]