How to play this nut flush draw

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So $62 in pot(sb folded on raise).

Loose player makes it $15 and 2 callers, then I call and then tight player raises $50. $173 in pot including $50 raise.


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I come up with 187 in the pot inclucing the raise. Missing the 15 you called prior to the raise (my guess) in your calculation.

JdT

Did he actually turn over that AQ you put him on?

If you really put him on AQ the only hands beating him were exactly AA, QQ and 88 which can only be dealt 18 ways. No matter what I would call that all in bet in his position holding top two pair. Even with the diamond draw on board he's a favorite to win with his two pair and the pot odds more than justify his call considering the small number of hands that were beating him at the time. It had to be fairly obvious that you weren't holding either QQ or AA since there were so many PF limpers and you did nothing to raise people off it. If he was holding AQ he knew you were beat or, at the worst, dead even.

Cyber, yes he turned the AQ as I knew. I read this guy like a book, which is why i put the move on him. He won't invest any money in a pot unless he has a lock on it, and won't put over 50 in a pot unless he has the nutz. that's why i did the move. He made the right call, and i made a poor play. he probably wouldn't put me on QQ or AA very likely as that would be the case A or Q. he put me on 88 and was convinced i had it and asked to see the snowmen when he called.

it was the wrong move on my part for good reasons. If I was to do the play over again I'd call - check/fold(if no diamond) raise(if diamond) on the riv.

[benkahuna]

I think your play was alright, but the other players in the hand sort of scare me. For the made hand guy, you sometimes have to watch out for the "I have a strong hand that I should probably fold, but can't get away from it" syndrome.

I think call, check/fold with insufficient pot odds is a better play here. I'm a little confused what happened to all 6 people on the flop. Is it now 3-way to you with one obvious folder that will make it HU? I'm also confused by whether the tight player check raised to 50 or added 50 more to make it 65 total. Very tight player is the same as tight player, right?

Calling 35 you have PO to take off a card, calling 50 you do not.

Implied odds are not very good with flush draws. They're often rather obvious. Maybe your opponent can't get away if you hit, but if he's super tight, I wouldn't count on it.

There are also redraw issues on the turn if you make it. He might call to beat you even without correct pot odds. He also might even bet first afraid of the 3 flush.

The result I see here is effective odds controlling the action. Based on my calculation, you have 538:183 (71:29) effective odds and you have 69:31 chance of winning in the end. Getting out of the hand now would create the most profitable/least unprofitable scenario.

I think the prudent play is call if it's 35 and fold if it's 50 to you, reevaluating PO on the turn.

Going beyond a strict mathematical perspective, you can make a play here for other reasons than PO, implied odds and effective odds if you think giving up a little here might increase your future expectation. Maybe an adjusted table image or implied tilt odds could swing a call or allin as the most profitable play?

[WhiteWolf]

Well, if your estimate that he would fold 40% of the time to your push was correct, then your play was actually a good move. By my calculations, the semibluff push is +EV all the way down to about a 15% chance that he folds. The only question is if your folding probablity estimate was correct, and that is of course highly read-dependent and impossible to accurately specify.

benkahuna,
you are mostly correct. after flop w/ 6 people left it went:

SuperTightPlayer(STP)check - loose player $15bet, call, call, my call, fold, fold, then STP raises $50. fold, fold, then action to me.

Whitewolf: the odds on his fold might not of been 100% accurate, but I think it was fairly close. maybe 30-40% fold. If I had been running better that night he would of dropped it in a second, so that image might of affected me that night. He lays down KK if someone bets $10 into a $70 pot that flops w/ an A. He's tight.

If you *knew he had AQ, and you still put him all in, no offense, but that is a dumb move...

Do you really expect your opponent to fold top 2 pair (with an ace), with no str8 or flush showing on the board?

I really dont see how this hand is even a hard decision... Call on the flop, you are getting great odds considering you are 3-1, and u called with garbage preflop facing a raise..

You got yourself into this situation preflop, you hit an *Ideal flop postflop... What is the problem with calling here?

Can someone comment on this?

1. Is this really only a good calling situation because the opponent is tight since the implied odds are weak? If there is a big raise - say all in - on a bad turn, then it's -EV to call:
The +EV of calling here is theoretically 1/3*223-50=24
And the -EV of calling an all-in on the turn with after no diamond comes up would be (8/44*489-133)*2/3=-30

2. Since calling 'represents' a drawing hand, and JT with the two-way gutshot straight draw is a solid drawing hand in this situation, would it be good play to semi-bluff on any 9 or King that comes up on the turn? (Or, for the more agressive bluffer the Jack or Ten as well?)

If you are always going to push in this situation, then you are getting odds to do so. You are getting 2.9:1 on all your chips, and it is 2:18:1 to hit (discounting Qd). The move is slightly better than break-even.

Comments?

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If you are always going to push in this situation, then you are getting odds to do so. You are getting 2.9:1 on all your chips, and it is 2:18:1 to hit (discounting Qd). The move is slightly better than break-even.

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Hand equity is .31. The pot is $173 with a $50 raise. Going all in will get you a call at 489 for $188 or a fold for $173, but the EV is only $151.59, so you loose $22 if your opponet alwasy calls. Your opponent needs to fold more than 12% of the time in order to make this profitable.

It's also a high variance play.