$200+15 Hand

[45suited]

I know what you're saying, but with people making plays like this, I wonder how someone would fair if they simply bet for value when they actually had something.

This is a question, I don't profess to know the answer. (Although I do have an inkling.)

[fnord_too]

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Yeah, but in the $215's, a play like this is much more warranted, because Button is betting more, and the people between you are folding more.

It can be FPSish here, but I think this is definitely one way you can play this hand.

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Button is going to fold getting 3:1 (assuming it gets folded to him, which it may not)? My problem with this flop play is that there is no good plan for the rest of the hand. Suddenly you are playing a big pot OOP with a hand you are not committed to, this is not good. In a ring game you may be doing this for meta game reasons, but post flop meta game stuff is much less important in an STT because post flop play always involves good portions of your stack (or the other guys stack). That is, you are not setting up lines for later since there is a good chance this hand will result in there not being a later for you, and least not in this STT. If this is part of a long term image play, well, I hope it is clearly thought out because a lot of advertising is just wasted money. So IMO the only reason to make this play here is you think it is likely that it will be folded around. How often does it need to be folded around to make this +EV? In terms of chip EV, you are investing T250 to win T220. Sure you can improve, but you can also get raised off your hand on the flop or catch enough to get yourself stacked here (and it is a lot harder to stack the other guy with your hand and this board.) So let's be wildly optomistic and say if everyone folds 50% of the time this is + chip EV, and furthermore, we will assume that if it is +ChipEV here it is plus cashing EV.

Do you think this gets folded around more than 50% of the time? I don't. Button is not making a bet with total air into 3 players, two of them who could have anything, that often. To top that off, you are offering him great odds to call, and your c/r looks weak (since it forces the two in between people to call a raise cold, meaning it looks like it is trying to limit the field and at best your hand is vulnerable. There are other reasons this looks weak, too). Maybe 20-30% of the time (215'ers feel free to call BS on me here, never played them, so I am assuming) it will be folded to the button and you will have a button who was bluffing and will release here.

[bigt439]

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what should the raise be if do to this?

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Well what would you raise this to if you actually had a hand like top two? I think it should be more than a t150 raise over a t100 bet with a flush draw out for protection reasons alone. And if you want a fold you should put some real pressure on him, because with the odds he's getting when it's back to him he could call with a bunch more hands than he could if you made it 325 or something. But this is only if I chose to play the hand the way you did, which I never would.

I get the thinking, but I don't think bluffing off a third of your stack in the worst position to win t200 with three left to act and two more streets to navigate and no reads seems smart. Does it sound that appealing?

[David100]

Ok, the play may have been slightly botched but this was what was going around in my head:

What do you put the player on first of all.. he limped in on the button with two limpers, so if he was strong he would have protected himself by raising. I put him on two high cards, a small pocket pair, or suited connectors. With one of those I could be buggered.

Flop is rags and I have a feeling he is betting into the pot as often people are inclined to do when it is checked around. The reason for the small raise is incase someone is slow playing trips and comes over the top to protect against a flush draw, which they should do.

So, they all fold around to the botton who only calls. At this point I am thinking why would someone just call if they had a strong hand considering a flush draw is out there; they need to protect and thus re raise me. So I put him on a draw.

Now a Seven falls which does complete a draw.

It gives me a flush draw. Now the hard part is what do I do on the turn, should I shut him out and push on a draw (hoping he is on a draw too)? If I check he is likely to bet and I will have to fold (unless he does put me on the 7 and gives me a free card).

Please discuss options for what to do on the turn please.

TY,

David

ps. What would you put me on with not knowing my cards by my play on the flop.

[FieryJustice]

Why not fold on the flop?

[freehat]

Just fold the damn flop, your hand sucks.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, the play may have been slightly botched but this was what was going around in my head:

What do you put the player on first of all.. he limped in on the button with two limpers, so if he was strong he would have protected himself by raising. I put him on two high cards, a small pocket pair, or suited connectors. With one of those I could be buggered.

Flop is rags and I have a feeling he is betting into the pot as often people are inclined to do when it is checked around. The reason for the small raise is incase someone is slow playing trips and comes over the top to protect against a flush draw, which they should do.

So, they all fold around to the botton who only calls. At this point I am thinking why would someone just call if they had a strong hand considering a flush draw is out there; they need to protect and thus re raise me. So I put him on a draw.

Now a Seven falls which does complete a draw.

It gives me a flush draw. Now the hard part is what do I do on the turn, should I shut him out and push on a draw (hoping he is on a draw too)? If I check he is likely to bet and I will have to fold (unless he does put me on the 7 and gives me a free card).

Please discuss options for what to do on the turn please.

TY,

David

ps. What would you put me on with not knowing my cards by my play on the flop.

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Meh. I know what you were thinking, and I'm not saying that it's wrong, I'm saying that it's heavily outweighed by the negative aspects of the situation you are in.

This flop is good for hands that limp on the button. Mid pp's are overpairs, some pp's setted, suited connectors could have made combos or two pairs. I'm not saying he has a big hand too often here, but it's not a totally safe flop considering the pf action.

There is no reason to put him specifically on a draw. He could just have a mediocre hand and be waiting to get more information on the turn before comitting more chips. That's one of the big problems with how you've played this hand; his range is still pretty big. Plus he doesn't have to reraise you with a big hand as it is unlikely you're drawing check raising in your position.

The seven doesn't complete a draw... I didn't follow you throught that part.

I think this whole hand is you out thinking yourself and making a bunch of assumptions that can't be made with any real degree of certainty.

I check the turn because it's likely you'll get a free card. Pushing is alright too if he's decent because he'll have to lay down a lot and you have redraws, but you don't have reads so you don't know what anything up to this point means... so... I check and try to take a free one. No more money goes in until I improve. But I don't think the interesting aspect of this hand is the turn.

[AliasMrJones]

I only play the $55's, I've never played a 215, but...

I don't have a problem completing for 15 more with K2s, but when you hit just bottom pair, I think you have to let it go. If you had as much as a real and not backdoor flush draw I'd like this play better. And what the heck is CO doing LIMPING first in in late position? Does play at the 215's often look like this?

Given that you have represented something like top pair, and presumably now have something like trips, there was a flush draw that you might have thought villain was on and now there are 2 flush draws out there that you want to protect your hand against, if you want to continue the charade you should push. You always have the flush draw if you get called.

[kyro]

Mmmm, I like tough hands.

Well, I'd say he either has a low mid pocket pair, two diamonds, or a 7. Which really doesn't help you at all, I know. I think you're spewing on the flop. I realize you think button is stealing here, but damn, bottom pair?

He's not folding a 7, and probably not 66-99. I'd probably check and re-evaluate on his turn bet