SSH Flop Quiz #16 - AJs (crossposted)

[W. Deranged]

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Do you think a check-raise will ever allow us to win this pot uncontested?


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Ever? Sure. Not a lot but sometimes. More importantly it'll clean up some outs and make the hand a lot easier imo.


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What hands are folding that would clean up some outs for us?

AK, AQ, A7, and other AJ are never folding I wouldn't think.

I think that any hand that folds is one that we would want to bring along anyways, unless I'm missing something.

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I think there are plenty of players who'll fold A7 here facing two cold.

More importantly might be the other Ax hands where x might come on the turn or river.

[SeaEagle]

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I think a lot of the reason for the bet is because you capped pre-flop. This seems like a case where a bunch of good things can happen by betting (possibly folding a hand like TT or QJ, either now or later) and you have a good equity cushion so that you're not losing money on the bets that are going in anyway. (You probably have like 6.5 outs or so on average here, meaning you're between 25-30% to win...)

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I don't think a bet here is awful, but I don't think it's a case where very many good things can happen. 2 outers have odds to call a single bet so nobody with any piece of the board is folding.

A free card is unlikely because it's an aggressive table (and a free card won't really hurt you anyway). I think you have to hope for a late position bet and try for a check/raise.

BTW, I don't get the PF cap here. Do most people cap w/ AJs from the blinds?

[2moreTerps]

JT? Ax? 7x?

What happens if you check-raise, bet the turn and by the river your hand still hasn't improved? I guess I would just bet out again and fold to a raise? I don't know

[Evan]

queens could fold, TT could fold, A7 could fold. Do you realize how awesome it would be to get this HU with the button and fold any hand that beats ace high in the process?

[W. Deranged]

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I think a lot of the reason for the bet is because you capped pre-flop. This seems like a case where a bunch of good things can happen by betting (possibly folding a hand like TT or QJ, either now or later) and you have a good equity cushion so that you're not losing money on the bets that are going in anyway. (You probably have like 6.5 outs or so on average here, meaning you're between 25-30% to win...)

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I don't think a bet here is awful, but I don't think it's a case where very many good things can happen. 2 outers have odds to call a single bet so nobody with any piece of the board is folding.

A free card is unlikely because it's an aggressive table (and a free card won't really hurt you anyway). I think you have to hope for a late position bet and try for a check/raise.

BTW, I don't get the PF cap here. Do most people cap w/ AJs from the blinds?

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I'll say that personally I'm probably not capping this usually. I probably would be capping AQs; this strikes me as slightly below the borderline, particularly because we're more likely to be dominated.

I think this is what makes a check raise viable. You represent a monster capping preflop, so if you can fold better hands with a check-raise I think it's worth the an extrabet. If you get HU with Mr. donko-LRR who might not be able to beat ace high that's awesome. If not you still have many ways to improve.

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I think a lot of the reason for the bet is because you capped pre-flop. This seems like a case where a bunch of good things can happen by betting (possibly folding a hand like TT or QJ, either now or later) and you have a good equity cushion so that you're not losing money on the bets that are going in anyway. (You probably have like 6.5 outs or so on average here, meaning you're between 25-30% to win...)

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I don't think a bet here is awful, but I don't think it's a case where very many good things can happen. 2 outers have odds to call a single bet so nobody with any piece of the board is folding.

A free card is unlikely because it's an aggressive table (and a free card won't really hurt you anyway). I think you have to hope for a late position bet and try for a check/raise.

BTW, I don't get the PF cap here. Do most people cap w/ AJs from the blinds?

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This is an easy preflop cap, since the 3 bettor is just building the pot, so you likely have the best hand here, and your hand plays well mutiway so its an easy cap. The preflop 3 bettor limped in after others limped in, that means if he had a monster he wouldve raised since he already has customers. With him 3 betting now he basically saying he has a hand that plays well multiway like a JTs, or T9s type of hand and he wants to build the pot, and you should accommodate him.

I think this is assuming a really loose bad game, in which you likely have a big equity edge. The also say the game is aggressive so a hand that dominates you would have likely raised by now. I don't think you'd cap here in your average PP SS game.

[SeaEagle]

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I'll say that personally I'm probably not capping this usually. I probably would be capping AQs; this strikes me as slightly below the borderline, particularly because we're more likely to be dominated.

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Well, I'd like this particular flop a whole lot better if there were 5 less bets in the pot and button had the initiative.

And, yeah, I'm capping AQs especially since the LRR is a funny looking one.

[peterchi]

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JT? Ax? 7x?

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JT is never ever folding here.

Why would we want Ax to fold? We have them dominated anyways.

7x maybe, I guess. But I don't really expect to win this hand with Ace-high anyways, heads up or multi-way, so I figure we're gonna need to hit one of our 10 outs against 7x anyways. I guess if x=J then that fold would be sweet. I dunno.