SSH Flop Quiz #16 - AJs (crossposted)

aK13 · #1 08-30-2005, 02:00 PM

You are in a loose and very aggressive game. You have A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the big blind. Four players, including the SB limp. You raise. Two limpers call, and then the button (limp)-reraises. The small blind calls and you cap. Everyone calls (20 small bets). The flop is K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], giving you a gutshot, and overcard, and a backdoor flush draw. The small blind checks, and you bet.

This bet is very unlikely to pick up the pot right now, And we're basically not folding out any hands that we would like to fold, so the only other reason to bet right now would be for value. How much value does our gutshot + BDFD have here against this field? Is it really enough to justify a bet here? (I don't know how often gutshots come in by the river).

Dagger78 · #2 08-30-2005, 02:08 PM

Gutshots are about 20% to come in by the river, plus slightly less than 5% for the flush. So figure 25% chance
of making the nuts by the river.

With the time our ace is good when we catch it, I would figure we have close to 30% equity in this pot? Anyone care to agree? Also this is assuming the button is limp-RRing with total swill, which is most likely the case.

Evan · #3 08-30-2005, 02:09 PM

I think I'd rather check raise the button.

W. Deranged · #4 08-30-2005, 02:12 PM

I think a lot of the reason for the bet is because you capped pre-flop. This seems like a case where a bunch of good things can happen by betting (possibly folding a hand like TT or QJ, either now or later) and you have a good equity cushion so that you're not losing money on the bets that are going in anyway. (You probably have like 6.5 outs or so on average here, meaning you're between 25-30% to win...)

W. Deranged · #5 08-30-2005, 02:18 PM

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I think I'd rather check raise the button.

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Obviously a lot depends on what happens after the check-raise, but are you generally intending to check the turn after your flop check-raise? Do you think a check-raise will ever allow us to win this pot uncontested?

I really like the idea, though. If we can somehow clean up any outs here it will easily pay for the cost of the raise in a 20 BB pot. Given pot size we're getting to the river no matter what so we might as well do whatever we can.

I assume you won't be check-raising here if a bet somehow comes from early position (or are you?)

#6 08-30-2005, 02:21 PM

I think a check raise is genius if you can fold out everyone between you and Mr. LRR. There's a good chance this is some donkish LRR with suited connectors or something.

Evan · #7 08-30-2005, 02:23 PM

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Obviously a lot depends on what happens after the check-raise, but are you generally intending to check the turn after your flop check-raise?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd bet HU or 3 way witht he SB.

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Do you think a check-raise will ever allow us to win this pot uncontested?

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Ever? Sure. Not a lot but sometimes. More importantly it'll clean up some outs and make the hand a lot easier imo.

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I assume you won't be check-raising here if a bet somehow comes from early position (or are you?)

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No.

#8 08-30-2005, 02:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You are in a loose and very aggressive game. You have A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the big blind. Four players, including the SB limp. You raise. Two limpers call, and then the button (limp)-reraises. The small blind calls and you cap. Everyone calls (20 small bets). The flop is K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], giving you a gutshot, and overcard, and a backdoor flush draw. The small blind checks, and you bet.

This bet is very unlikely to pick up the pot right now, And we're basically not folding out any hands that we would like to fold, so the only other reason to bet right now would be for value. How much value does our gutshot + BDFD have here against this field? Is it really enough to justify a bet here? (I don't know how often gutshots come in by the river).

[/ QUOTE ]
Ed Miller is a great writer who has dramatically changed my game, and I have read this book about 6 times now, and every time I reach this problem I shake my head. You should not bet the flop in this situation, you should be checking and calling. That said though, betting can only be an extremely minor mistake versus checking and calling, so in the long run it doesnt really matter. But I believe this is a clear check and call situation.

2moreTerps · #9 08-30-2005, 02:28 PM

yes, you have the equity to bet this. discounting the top-pair outs you have about 25% equity.

peterchi · #10 08-30-2005, 02:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you think a check-raise will ever allow us to win this pot uncontested?

[/ QUOTE ]
Ever? Sure. Not a lot but sometimes. More importantly it'll clean up some outs and make the hand a lot easier imo.

[/ QUOTE ]
What hands are folding that would clean up some outs for us?

AK, AQ, A7, and other AJ are never folding I wouldn't think.

I think that any hand that folds is one that we would want to bring along anyways, unless I'm missing something.