AJs part 1

[Dynasty]

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Assuming you're right, aren't you 3 bets short? I count nine bets in the flop for your 12 to 1 shot. (Or did I misunderstand what "12:1" means?)

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You did not misunderstand what 12:1 means. You simply stopped counting at 9. MP, Hero, and Small Blind all put 3 small bets in the pot pre-flop. That's 9. The big blind is 10. Small Blind's flop bet and MP's call makes 12.

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As to the whole tough decision thing, we're talking about a situation where, if the call is right, all the stars have to be in proper alignment

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There is no need for stars to be in proper alignment. If you have a hand which is worth a call getting 12:1 and you are getting 12:1, then your call is +EV. It doesn't matter if a total brick comes on the turn or if you make a second best hand sometimes.

As far as how you calculate what odds you are getting in this spot, I would usually assume I have 3 good pair outs and definitely a good backdoor flush draw which is worth approximately 1.5 outs. Throw in the backdoor straight draw and I think it's fair to call this a 5-out hand. You only need 8.4:1 to call drawing to a 5-out hand. If you want to be more pessimistic and call it a 4-out hand, you need 10.75:1 pot odds.

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I don't know if there is anybody who can make the read at the table that you need to make to correctly conclude, "yes, THIS is the time to call."

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It's not that difficult a read once you understand that the pot is laying you such large odds that you can call with a very weak hand.

The turn is Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[CrackerZack]

On the flop he's talking about. the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is out there, you have AJ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] therefore a backdoor nut flush draw. I probably fold here also, but that's why I play LL. Me and tough and marginal decisions often part ways.

[RydenStoompala]

I would raise here, playing off the possible weak call by middle position and the chances of a nothing bet by the agressive player in the blind. This could fold one hand or at least try for a free card if nothing comes on the turn.

[RydenStoompala]

Now that I've correctly raised into this mess, if I do not get a free peak I'm going to put the laces on top and punt. The exception may be a call against the small blind because he just may be working the low pair.

[Avivs]

our hero called on the flop and on the turn and when a rug hit on the river he had to fold...
SB had a set of 10's and MP had a set of 3's.
after the smoke cleared our hero started doubting himself for the way he played the hand.
one point that no one mentioned was that calling on the turn also has the risk of another raise from SB and maybe even a cap from MP so it might cost $120 (and not $60) to call on the turn.
I want to thank everyone for their posts and I would appreciate any final comments anyone might have.

[elysium]

hi aviv
your call closes the action, you're getting correct odds, excellent position, you must call. if you want to get fancy, you could raise, but....no. a raise isn't awful, but you want the SB to bet out, not check, on the turn. no, you won't know until the turn how you will respond to the bet, but you don't want to screw this thing up by scaring the little SB. call.

[skp]

Lots of cards on the turn can give you 12 and maybe even 18 outs for the river. You can't get raised on the flop. Therefore, you should usually call and occasionally raise i.e. if you can get a reliable read by the sb's reaction to your raise as to whether he just has AK/AQ etc.

It's too early to fold, IMO.

[Pot-A]

Another reason you might not want to raise is to avoid a re-raise.

I'm voting for "call" as well.