is this a good turn bet to build pot or am i overaggressieve

[fizzleboink]

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The same reason we bet the turn. A little thing I like to call "value." You're ahead. You're 2:1 to make your flush by the river, so even if you lose the 3rd player, you are breaking even JUST ON THE FLUSH DRAW. Add in two overcards and a backdoor nut straight, and you have more than 50% equity in this pot.

Right?

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I kinda feel like a nit for piping in and saying what I'm about to say. There's been some great discussion on a good hand here, and I agree with the conclusions. I really liked seeing what folding BB does for our equity on the flop.

That said, I can't let this one thing slide. If you're a little better than 2:1 to hit your flush draw, that means that for every time it hits, it fails to hit a little less than twice. That's not 50% equity. That's 35% equity. If we knew for certain that we were behind, and the flush draw was the only thing we had, then we wouldn't want to raise here and knock out BB for equity's sake. There's a case to be made for getting a free card, but from the stand point of equity on this street only, it's more +EV to convince BB to toss in a bet. In this case, it looks like we very likely have enough additional equity in the form of addtional outs and the chance that we might already be ahead to warrant playing this exactly like hero did, but we don't break even on the flush draw alone when HU.

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He must have been thinking that odds of 2:1 means 1/2 (50%).
Remember that 2:1 is really 1/(2+1) = 1/3.

Now I'm being a nit. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Awesome thread btw.

[QTip]

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If you aren't taking the free card on the turn, give me a reason why we raise the flop.

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The same reason we bet the turn. A little thing I like to call "value." You're ahead. You're 2:1 to make your flush by the river, so even if you lose the 3rd player, you are breaking even JUST ON THE FLUSH DRAW. Add in two overcards and a backdoor nut straight, and you have more than 50% equity in this pot.

Right?

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I kinda feel like a nit for piping in and saying what I'm about to say. There's been some great discussion on a good hand here, and I agree with the conclusions. I really liked seeing what folding BB does for our equity on the flop.

That said, I can't let this one thing slide. If you're a little better than 2:1 to hit your flush draw, that means that for every time it hits, it fails to hit a little less than twice. That's not 50% equity. That's 35% equity. If we knew for certain that we were behind, and the flush draw was the only thing we had, then we wouldn't want to raise here and knock out BB for equity's sake. There's a case to be made for getting a free card, but from the stand point of equity on this street only, it's more +EV to convince BB to toss in a bet. In this case, it looks like we very likely have enough additional equity in the form of addtional outs and the chance that we might already be ahead to warrant playing this exactly like hero did, but we don't break even on the flush draw alone when HU.

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This can be a confusing concept, and there's a passage in TOP that I believe is poorly worded makes it even more confusing. Here's a link from the archives to when I first understood it. That whole thread I really enjoyed.

So, if you have the lag in a bad way here, you're much better off getting the bb to fold ANYTHING here whether he has the odds to call or not. You take his equity in the hand. If I thought he was going to call 1, I would definitely raise.

Yes, you make money when he calls, but you make more money when he folds.

Edit: I misread your post here, sorry. I agree with what your wrote. Someone in this mesh of responses, I said the same thing...the only way I'm not raising here is if lag shows me his made flush. Oh well....it's a good link anyway. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[QTip]

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If you aren't taking the free card on the turn, give me a reason why we raise the flop.

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The same reason we bet the turn. A little thing I like to call "value." You're ahead. You're 2:1 to make your flush by the river, so even if you lose the 3rd player, you are breaking even JUST ON THE FLUSH DRAW. Add in two overcards and a backdoor nut straight, and you have more than 50% equity in this pot.

Right?

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I kinda feel like a nit for piping in and saying what I'm about to say. There's been some great discussion on a good hand here, and I agree with the conclusions. I really liked seeing what folding BB does for our equity on the flop.

That said, I can't let this one thing slide. If you're a little better than 2:1 to hit your flush draw, that means that for every time it hits, it fails to hit a little less than twice. That's not 50% equity. That's 35% equity. If we knew for certain that we were behind, and the flush draw was the only thing we had, then we wouldn't want to raise here and knock out BB for equity's sake. There's a case to be made for getting a free card, but from the stand point of equity on this street only, it's more +EV to convince BB to toss in a bet. In this case, it looks like we very likely have enough additional equity in the form of addtional outs and the chance that we might already be ahead to warrant playing this exactly like hero did, but we don't break even on the flush draw alone when HU.

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This can be a confusing concept, and there's a passage in TOP that I believe is poorly worded makes it even more confusing. Here's a link from the archives to when I first understood it. That whole thread I really enjoyed.

So, if you have the lag in a bad way here, you're much better off getting the bb to fold ANYTHING here whether he has the odds to call or not. You take his equity in the hand. If I thought he was going to call 1, I would definitely raise.

Yes, you make money when he calls, but you make more money when he folds.

Edit: I misread your post here, sorry. I agree with what your wrote. Someone in this mesh of responses, I said the same thing...the only way I'm not raising here is if lag shows me his made flush. Oh well....it's a good link anyway. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]


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I was thinking about the things I said here in the car and also hashed it over with a friend and I want to correct and clarify a couple of things.

First:

I had said that you make more money when BB folds anything, but that's not really true. Of course, if he folds a pair or a set, that's definitely beneficial. However, we would make more money here if bb CALLS 2 COLD with nothing here than folds it.

Second:

Against the vast majority of players, playing the hand the way bill played it here is perfect. I was just giving a situation with a calling station here that made some sense.

[DavidC]

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I'm betting here because Villain is on a flush draw too, so if the flush misses on the river, I'm going to win an extra bet from him with this turn bet after he folds on the river.

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Uh, if villain is on a flush draw, then why is he folding the river? (i.e. why are you betting?)

[GTSamIAm]

Your bet was a semibluff bet, not a value bet. Check this most off the time. You can't get value here, there wouldn't be enough callers.

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Heads up I'm betting here everytime.

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[Entity]

This hand looks perfect to me. You've got the best hand on this board a lot more often than everyone here is suggesting, and you've got somewhere around 18 outs against a top pair-ish hand (you've got between 15 and 21, so I just took the average). That means you don't have to be up against a lower nonpaired flush draw here very often to make the bet +EV. Check the river UI.

Also, FWIW, the only time checking here is better is if villain is very checkraise happy and/or will always bet a missed draw on the river, so you can check behind on the turn and call a river bet. This sort of opponent isn't going to be present often enough at these levels for a bet to be +EV.

Even if you've only got the best hand 20% of the time here, which I think is somewhat conservative, a bet here is certainly +EV.

Rob

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I'm betting here because Villain is on a flush draw too, so if the flush misses on the river, I'm going to win an extra bet from him with this turn bet after he folds on the river.

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A read on the opponent is pretty important here. For those talking about value on the turn, that really depends on what we think he has. If he as little as 33, we have no value in this bet unless we think our fold equity is quite high:

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So, if he's passive, and betting into the pfr here, I think there's a decent chance that he has a made hand. As seen, if that's simply 33, we're behind here and there is no value in a turn bet. If he has something much stronger, our situation is even worse:

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If he bet into us on the flop with his made hand, I highly doubt a loose passive is folding unless maybe another flush card falls and he doesn't hold a spade.

If he's aggressive, then we can think about charging him when he checks the turn. The only thing I hate about that is that is takes the chance of a c/r here up a bit. Normally, I'll take that chance because I think it's more important to not give free cards than to worry about getting c/red. The interesting thing about this hand though is that almost any draw he's on, our draw is better.

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Nice analysis here and further on. [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]