Wynn 15/30 Nit-counting exercise

[jason_t]

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It's a lot more complex than that homie. I'll try to do some math here and sketch it out to get a better idea though.



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I know. Alas, I just don't have the time tonight to do a correct analysis. I'll think about it while I'm driving to San Francisco tomorrow.

[Jake (The Snake)]

Glad you're not going crazy on us [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

I think it's more like this:

Of the times we would have ended up with the best hand, we will fold sometimes.

I'll say 15/17.3 we actually showdown the winner.

9.33 sounds reasonable for an average pot we win when we go to showdown and win.

1.2 sounds more reasonable to me for the other 85% we don't showdown the winner.

So (9.33)*(.15) - (1.2)(.85)= +.38

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

It's a lot more complex than that homie. I'll try to do some math here and sketch it out to get a better idea though.



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I know. Alas, I just don't have the time tonight to do a correct analysis. I'll think about it while I'm driving to San Francisco tomorrow.

[/ QUOTE ]

Answer your AIM nit.

[jason_t]

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[ QUOTE ]
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It's a lot more complex than that homie. I'll try to do some math here and sketch it out to get a better idea though.



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I know. Alas, I just don't have the time tonight to do a correct analysis. I'll think about it while I'm driving to San Francisco tomorrow.

[/ QUOTE ]

Answer your AIM nit.

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I'm not at home. I'm at school studying but this hand is more interesting than my math.

I may have to pull an sthief09.

[Catt]

I think ignoring the LPP is mostly the right approach for purposes of analysis when at the table (and really, for analysis away from the table). If he sticks around and we hit a flush or straight, he's providing a nice overlay. If he sticks around and we hit an overcard he's either providing an overlay or taking the pot from us. If he drops on the turn, it impacts our turn decision. If he drops on the river, he doesn't matter much. The biggest wrench he can throw into the machine is if he raises the turn depedning on the turn card. We're calling with a FD or OESD on the turn but not pleased about having to put in 2 bets; we're folding a gutshot. If, as I'm lead to believe of passive players in a B&M game, he is unlikely to raise with less than a monster, then he really only presents a problem when he raises something like the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the turn -- I'll deal with that when the time comes but am not going to expend a lot of energy on it when thinking about calling the flop.

If we turn an A or a Q, there is very little we can do other than ck-cl. If LPP makes it two to us after Jason bets an A turn, we need to have the discipline to fold (I haven't done the math, but I presume this should be an easy fold). Same for a Q. This hand can get expensive when Jason bets a blank [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or a T and LPP raises, but again, I expect this to happen infrequently enough to not worry about it too much when faced with the flop decision.

It feels icky to ck-cl a turned A down, but I think it's the right play. We're winning an extra 2 BBs or losing an extra 2 BBs, but there is 7.5 BBs at stake on the flop. With the hand range given, it's profitable to call down. I think this makes calling down a Q on the turn and river unprofitable without LPP putting in at least one bet (would be 9.5 BBs for a 2BB investment and the Q beats 6 possible hands (TT) among 36 possible combos needing effective odds of 5:1) unless we spike an A or Q on the river, which may further affect our outs calculation on the flop but not enough to change this to a fold on the flop.

[baronzeus]

(all calculations assuming 7.5BB pot, and 3BB implied odds)

Let's say we will peel to the river with any diamond or T on the turn = 13 cards

(34/47)*(-0.5BB) = -0.362BB
+
(3/47)*(8/46)*(10.5BB) = 0.117BB
+
(9/47)*(9/46)*(10.5BB) = 0.393BB
+
(1/47)*(15/46)*(10.5BB) = 0.073BB
-
(3/47)*(38/46)*(-1.5BB) = -0.079BB
-
(9/47)*(37/46)*(-1.5BB) = -0.231BB
-
(1/47)*(31/46)*(-1.5BB) = -0.022BB


GRAND TOTAL



= -0.111BB net loss when JUST calling for your nut draws (NOT OVERCARDS).

Add in anything for overcards and it's +EV.

[flair1239]

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BTW, plugged the thing into pokerstove including the LPP... it is not even close. Even compensating for position, it is still a call.


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Can you tell me how you did this? I ignored the LPP and used PokerStove to obtain the following.

35,640 games 0.020 secs 1,782,000 games/sec

Board: Jh 9d 3s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 17.2741 % 16.78% 00.50% { AdQd }
Hand 2: 82.7259 % 82.23% 00.50% { 99+, AKs, AKo }

The pot on the flop is 7.33 BB. Let's say that the times that rmarotti wins the pot, he can expect to collect 1 BB on each street. Sometimes he picks up more depending on what he improves to and sometimes he picks up less. Thus he can expect the final pot be around 9.33 BB. Thus

EV = .1727 * (9.33) - (1 - .1727) * (2.5) = -.4570.

The conclusion from this is that a call is -EV.

Edit: This analysis is incorrect due to the error of assuming that rmarotti will always call down (not a terrible assumption since he is a fish [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]) which arose from an oversimplification of this complex problem.

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Jason,

How can you ignore the LPP in any analysis?

Also you are putting to much effort into projecting forward from the flop.

I am not advocating operating in a vacum. But a a bad turn decision does not mean that the flop call was a mistake.

You make your profitable call on the flop and you have another decision to make on the turn. It is that simple, it is a new decision with a different set of circumstances. On the flop there exists enough of a probability (with the pot odds), that RM will win this hand to justify him seeing the turn. If he botches the hand from there, it is not because of his flop call.

[PokerBob]

he's got 2 backdoor draws to the nuts, one of which may be a chop. his overs are likely dirty, but not completely. imo he's got between 3-4 outs, and getting nearly 15-1 closing the action, he can peel.

[2moreTerps]

I'm a new player. I've never done anything like this. Am I on the right track?

3 Betting Hands (Combinations) - Outs
AA (3) - 1.5
KK (6) - 5.5
QQ (3) - 5.5
JJ (3) - 1.5
TT (6) - 9.5
99 (3) - 1.5
AK (12) - 5.5

Are my outs estimates close? I pretty much totally discounted the backdoor straight possibility.

This gives him 4.83 outs against YOUR range. That totally ignores the preflop calls by the button and the BB though. I think it is fair to say that they probably have some of our outs, but I still think it is worth a call getting ~15:1. It is nice that we act last (don't have to worry about being raised) and a lot of our outs disappear if the turn isn't a diamond, so folding the turn won't be too hard.

[meep_42]

I think this analysis misses the straight outs we gain on the K/8/T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], as it only counts them in the BD flush calculation.

Or maybe I missed it.

-d