Wynn 15/30 Nit-counting exercise

jason_t · #1 08-23-2005, 05:10 AM

Preflop: rmarotti is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
rmarotti raises, I 3-bet in MP, LPP cold calls on Button, LAP cold calls in BB.

Flop: (12.67 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, rmarotti checks, I bet, Button calls, BB folds, rmarotti....

Find rmarotti's average number of outs against my hand range and decide whether or not he should continue to the turn. Keep in mind the idea of effective odds as opposed to immediate odds, etc.

Don't just answer "he should call;" justify your answer. I believe that the actual answer is close.

stinkypete · #2 08-23-2005, 05:31 AM

he should call. it is close.

thesharpie · #3 08-23-2005, 05:33 AM

I must've miscalculated it because it's not close by my calculations putting you on AK and TT-AA, I give him ~4.75 outs. Did I mess it up?

jason_t · #4 08-23-2005, 05:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I must've miscalculated it because it's not close by my calculations putting you on AK and TT-AA, I give him ~4.75 outs. Did I mess it up?

[/ QUOTE ]

99 is in my range. Don't forget about effective odds.

flair1239 · #5 08-23-2005, 09:42 AM

Your going overboard with effective odds. His backdoor draws alone are almost enough to see the turn when he is closing the action.

The only real tricky part, is figuring out how much to discount the overcards. But really that can wait until the turn. At this point I give him four outs. But the problem is he is going to have to payoff on either overcard.

bugstud · #6 08-23-2005, 10:09 AM

my snap analysis at wynn:

backdoor nut flush ~ 1.5 outs (sometimes makes it vs jason boat, though)

ace - depends on jason's range. So AA (3) JJ (3) 99 (3) it is not clean. KK (6) QQ (3) the ace is clean, vs TT (6) he has 6 outs and vs AK the Q is clean. so count the aces as another ~2 outs depending on how you want to weight the action with regards to ranges. Adding in some backdoor straight combinations which might be roughly 1 out, you've got 4.5 outs, 4 if you discount the straight outs, 3.5 if you deem them useless. so at 3.5:45 being a little worse than 13:1 he's getting the right odds. He has some reverse implied odds, but this being a conservative view of his outs situation means to me that I'd call this flop.

PTjvs · #7 08-23-2005, 10:14 AM

His biggest problem with this hand is that he is OOP with no freaking idea what his outs are. There are absolutely no cards in the deck that he can bet/checkraise on the turn, and he may be drawing virtually dead. This is a hand where my autopilot play is to call, but the more I think about it, the more I like a fold.

jvs

flair1239 · #8 08-23-2005, 10:22 AM

I think you must heavily discount the overcards. Together they may be one out.

The reason is, you almost have to plan on paying off with either of them. The only things that make this hand worth continuing is you have two backdoor draws to the nuts, and many cards that will improve your hand on the turn (K, T, 8, Diamonds). You are closing the action so you can afford to be a little bit loose. The size of the pot is the clincher. I think it is interesting, but for one bet, I really don't think it is close.

BigEndian · #9 08-23-2005, 10:34 AM

I'd count it at about 3 outs. 1 for the BD flush and 2 for the overs. So it's worth peeling.

I thought this was the most interesting part of the hand:

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: (12.67 SB)

[/ QUOTE ]
Amazing math skills you have at the table!

- Jim

Entity · #10 08-23-2005, 10:42 AM

My guess was 5 outs. Just off the top of my head. Here's some math, based upon your backdoors being worth about 2 outs here (against JJ and 99 exclusively HU your equity is about 5.8%, so it looks like 2ish outs is fair based solely on math, since there will be redraws if you turn a 3-outer against KK, etc.). A turned 8 or K gives you a gutshot which you will be close to being able to profitably call. A turned T gives you an OESD which you can easily call. It's a bit of a nasty reverse implied odds situation though, given that you aren't getting a whole lot out of AK and you can't expect to get much out of 88 or TT if you turn a Q/A.

AK - 12 hands: 5 outs
AA - 3 hands: 2 outs
KK - 6 hands: 5 outs
QQ - 3 hands: 5 outs
JJ - 3 hands: 1.8 outs
TT - 6 hands: 8 outs
99 - 3 hands: 1.8 outs
88 - [discounted] 3 - 8 outs

Against all those it's about 4.7 outs, so my guess of 5 outs was pretty close. It's an ok peel IMO, especially given the loose passive player trapped. That's just bayesian and ignores the reverse implieds nature of the unclean outs, but it's too much overlay not to peel. I don't get all of you who are discounting this to "3" outs.

Rob