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#21
08-23-2005, 09:32 PM
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Re: Bellagio 15/30 JTs semibluff
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I don't know that the river bet is always neccessary. I think most of the folds you will get will come on the turn. If he's going to fold JJ or TT, I don't think he'll call the turn raise and fold the river. He might try to pair AK, but here again I think he will probably fold the turn. [/ QUOTE ] But many players...a lot here as well, plan to call one more bet and check/fold UI on the river. So I think if u are commited to raising this turn, it also commits u to a follow through on the river. (most of the time anyway). Especially if he looks like hes going to vomit when u raise his turn bet. [/ QUOTE ] Jason_t seemed to highlight how weak/tight this villian was which made me wonder really how often he will call the turn bet and then fold the river U/I with marginal holdings such as AK, JJ, and TT. My feeling is a true weak/tight player will either fold this turn to the c/r or show down his hand. That being said I'm curious as to others opinions on betting the river if the turn c/r was called as this was the most interesting decision in this hand for me. 
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#23
08-23-2005, 10:42 PM
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Re: Bellagio 15/30 JTs semibluff
hero has a gutshot + bd flush draw and his pair outs will be good some of the time, i would say hero has about 5-8 outs here which warrant a call...plus a weak player might check thru the turn with his unpaired/underpaired hands giving hero a free chance to hit...
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#25
08-23-2005, 10:50 PM
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Re: Bellagio 15/30 JTs semibluff
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Nice. It's rare that I advocate a turn semibluff c/r but this looks like a great place for it. [/ QUOTE ] If I am called, what do you think of my plan of firing at river bricks? [/ QUOTE ] I think it the only way for you to win the pot. I like it a lot
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#26
08-23-2005, 10:59 PM
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Re: Bellagio 15/30 JTs semibluff
Jason,
First, this seems like a very good spot so try this. The only issue I have here is with the river plan. It just seems somewhat inconsistent in that if CO will call the turn with a bare AK excluding exactly AK clubs it makes the turn less worthwhile. So, I think in this case I'd give up on the river if called. However, I'm basing that really on my own assumption that a weak/extremely tight player would fold AK on the turn. If you're 50/50 or something like that as to whether AK folds the turn then the river may make sense as well. Chief
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#27
08-23-2005, 11:34 PM
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Re: Bellagio 15/30 JTs semibluff
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's the only way for you to win the pot. [/ QUOTE ] IMO with jason's image if his opponent calls the turn he is planning on showing down a LOT, excluding AcKc. if jason had run some semibluffs and has given up on the river before, his opponent could be calling the turn expecting a free showdown + outs with AK if he is behind, then maybe we fire again to discourage that in the future and to get him to fold it this time.
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