25/50 hand reading post esp. for those in Keres thread

[durrrr]

pot, underpot, pot seems a funny line to me, do you think he was scared of the A on turn, or hoping you were? or simply felt like messing around w/ the size of the turn bet? Does this opponent raise J8o,T8o preflop (i assume soooooooooted he does)? I think I need AT/AJ+ to call baring any specific reads on opponent. Also is there any chance he completely missed this board? (would he raise low suited connecters oop?) I think this is an interesting hand simply because of the final board and the fact that its hit such a large % of his hand range pretty strong. I'm curious as to what you had (I don't think we can narrow it too much when you simply call twice, at least for your sake i hope we cant). RESULTS?

[Ulysses]

I called. He had 62o. I had JJ.

"LOL, that guy is crazy!" is not an accurate response here. The guy is very aggressive, but not dumb. He knows I can lay down hands and the board continued to give him reason to think he could make me fold a lot of hands.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I called. He had 62o. I had JJ.

"LOL, that guy is crazy!" is not an accurate response here. The guy is very aggressive, but not dumb. He knows I can lay down hands and the board continued to give him reason to think he could make me fold a lot of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

What non-board-pairing rivers are you raising with here?

[turnipmonster]

I like his river play a lot actually, it's very hard for you to call with < 2 pair I think.

[mgsimpleton]

well, cool.

but he is betting, not calling on any streets, thus giving you more chances to lay down. he'd be hard pressed to just call with 62o here from out of position "just to take it away."

and correct me if i'm wrong (but i'm not) but while this is 3 handed, this is still a battle of the blinds, ain't it? seems like he wanted your 50 bucks and wound up losing 4000... sucks for him but once again, very different situation.

[fnord_too]

Pre Flop: I can't put either of you on a lot here. sb could be raising with just about anything. Probably not utter unsuited crap (like 48o) but I would not even rule that out entirely. You can have anything since you are getting 2:1 with 111 BB stacks behind, and you will have position.

Flop: Again, hard to narrow things down here since a continuation on a missed flop is nothing unusual. For the same reason you could call with almost anything planning on taking it away later, but most likely you have at least a gut shot or a pair + bd draw or overs + bd draws here.

Turn: An ace comes and he makes a reasonable bet. At this point I think we need to look at stack/pot sizes a little closer:
After the bet he has 4700ish behind, and the pot if you call will be 2450. This bet could be a couple of things:
The second barrel of a bluff (an ace is a certainly a scare card)
A pot building bet with a nice hand (straigh, set, maybe two pair)
A pot building bet/semi bluff with a nice draw (like TQ)
It could be an ace that does not want to give a free card on a dangerous board but will fold to a raise (a value / information bet)
You call, so you probably have a good draw or a made hand or reason to believe you can move him off his hand on the river. Some hands like QJ or 9T I could see you calling the flop and raising a blank turn. I doubt you have a medium strength made hand like 2p, though I guess you could be taking a high variance, (high EV?) route with a set.

River: So now any 8 or QK makes a straight. QK seems unlikely for villain, but an 8 is a real possibility. Villain leads, which could be a third barrell but I doubt it. That board is so coordinated with the range of hands you would defend with and get to the river with that a pure bluff seems iffy.

I think that calling with less than aces up is a bad idea. Pushing with less may be ok, but you specifically want to know the minimum to call with. I think aces and nines is where I would draw the line, and I wouldn't feel great about that. I would guess he has two pair or better (though maybe he can make this bet with less).

[nopepper]

i am not calling this river bet with anything less than a set.

[durrrr]

mmmm even in my most aggressive modes HU i still muck 26o-2jo, 38-3jo,49o preflop if oop and not against a HUGE donkey (which i assume he doesnt view you as). You sure sb is any good? No justification of a call/raise here from SB unless it was for sho value (is he gonna show if u fld preflop?).

[gergery]

The problem with posting hands like this one and the Mahatma one is that once people play technically competent poker, then the meta-game/shania/game theory factors become so much more important, and you can never criticize or react to any given hand because of that.

Most of the time most people have nothing in NL and can't call giant bets. So LAG play always becomes correct. Until your opponents catch on and react. Then tightening up is correct. and then......she told two friends and so on and so on, and so on.

Each of these hands posted is just a snapshot in time in the cycle back and forth, so given hands can be deeper into one cycle (call) like the Mahatma one was, but you can easily be in the other cycle, so there will never be a right answer or even an answer that can be agreed upon.

But then El D knew this which is why KaneKF can quote it.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
mmmm even in my most aggressive modes HU i still muck 26o-2jo, 38-3jo,49o preflop if oop and not against a HUGE donkey (which i assume he doesnt view you as). You sure sb is any good? No justification of a call/raise here from SB unless it was for sho value (is he gonna show if u fld preflop?).

[/ QUOTE ]

Many competent players play the board and their opponent in these spots, making their cards irrelevant. For this to be sound, they have to be willing to fire multiple barrels if the appropriate situation presents itself, as he did here. I might have played his hand the same way, though I think I'd be slightly more inclined to push the river rather than pot.