$10+1 Multi Pokerstars Hand

[Jonny5]

The problem with calling it a bad beat is that the money didn't go in until he was ahead.

What could he have had that would beat me?
a) Flush draw (I would think he would just call if he wanted to pay to see..knowing Feq was low) or raise on the flop
b) KQ (why not raise the flop to see if his Q was good? or just call on the turn, what changes?
c)A10. Very poor flop call, then a weak all in.
d) Stone cold bluff.

all the above seem very unlikely..especially given the betting most would have to think it is VERY likely I would call.

logical hands he could have had that could beat me
a) K10...called flop bet, then tried to shut me out when he hit 2 pair
b) flopped a set and waited till the turn to raise
c) Called (poorly) with 10-10 on the flop and raised on the turn givin my large bet and assuming I would call.
d) AA or KK....(unlikely because I would assume he would either raise pre of post flop...not manypeople slow play that long. (and its very incorrect)

b and c or most likely, all of the top hands are unlikely..IMO.

I think I should have been able to get away from it... anyone agree?

[holman3rd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (t735) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t530</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to t3060</font>, BB folds, Hero calls t2200 (All-In).

River: (t6525) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

MP3 has 10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],10[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Final Pot: t6525

I didn't just post this because to rationalize a bad play. I was really on the fence and used my full time bank for this, I was very close to folding and couldn't pull the trigger. (Or let go of the trigger) I'm suprised that more people aren't saying fold. I didn't expect the TT (although it crossed my mind), but I figured he may have flopped a set and waited till the turn to raise me.

I do believe I shoulda have bet 3/4 pot on the flop rather than 1/2 to give flush draws worse odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I like a pot size bet in this spot. Really make them pay to draw out on you. Here's the Pokenum analysis, so it's a pretty bad beat

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1160986
pokenum -h as qs - th ts -- qd 7h 4d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Qd 4d 7h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Qs 903 91.21 87 8.79 0 0.00 0.912
Ts Th 87 8.79 903 91.21 0 0.00 0.088

[/ QUOTE ]

Bigger flop bet probably wouldn't have made a difference. Given that this player shoved all-in with a set, I doubt a bigger flop bet would have scared him off.

Mike-I understand your comments about how you're frequently ahead when an opponent goes all in in this "type" of situation. But I think that in this spot, it's quite obvious that you are behind, given the betting action and the texture of the board. Basically what I'm saying is that I don't think you can generalize by saying that since your experience has been to pick off bluffs/weaker hands frequently, that calling here is a good move. If that's not what you're saying, I apologize, but that seems to be the only argument you have in favor of calling.

Hero's stack is deep relative to blinds, it's early in the tourney, and the betting action up to that point indicates that it's more likely that he's behind.

[2+2 wannabe]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with calling it a bad beat is that the money didn't go in until he was ahead.

What could he have had that would beat me?
a) Flush draw (I would think he would just call if he wanted to pay to see..knowing Feq was low) or raise on the flop
b) KQ (why not raise the flop to see if his Q was good? or just call on the turn, what changes?
c)A10. Very poor flop call, then a weak all in.
d) Stone cold bluff.

all the above seem very unlikely..especially given the betting most would have to think it is VERY likely I would call.

logical hands he could have had that could beat me
a) K10...called flop bet, then tried to shut me out when he hit 2 pair
b) flopped a set and waited till the turn to raise
c) Called (poorly) with 10-10 on the flop and raised on the turn givin my large bet and assuming I would call.
d) AA or KK....(unlikely because I would assume he would either raise pre of post flop...not manypeople slow play that long. (and its very incorrect)

b and c or most likely, all of the top hands are unlikely..IMO.

I think I should have been able to get away from it... anyone agree?

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a 10+1 right?

flush draw, q-anything, middle pocket pair, bluff - they are all much more likely than you think

i just played almost the EXACT same hand as you did, AQ with board Q97 rainbow, turn offsuit 4 and he showed J8 with pretty much the same action as you provide

people find a way to get their money in as an underdog at 10+1 MTTs

[HeroInBlack]

I haven't read any of the other responses yet.

I think you played it perfectly so far and you have to fold to the all in. You really don't want to be calling an all in with just a pair.

[HeroInBlack]

[ QUOTE ]
I do believe I shoulda have bet 3/4 pot on the flop rather than 1/2 to give flush draws worse odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have bet 3/4 of the pot on that board, but 1/2 pot isn't that bad of a mistake. It's hard to say if he would have called or not. He certainly didn't have the pot odds to call with only 2 outs, but your call of the all in on the turn made the flop call good. When somebody plays like a donk, you have to avoid paying them off when they suck out on you if at all possible.

In response to those that are saying they call the all-in, I think the stage of the tourney needs to be considered. When the stacks are small compared to the blinds, I call this every time. Hell, I check-raise the flop. But this early, you can't bank on a pair being good. A pair is really not that great of a hand facing a flop call and a turn reraise. I fold this every time unless I've seen this guy make a similar move a little too recently to suggest he's willing to do it without a monster.