"You are pathetic" (preflop question)

[callmedonnie]

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Well, if you could anticipate that flop coming, you'd definitely want to play [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img][ QUOTE ]




Can't all good players do that?

[Nick C]

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However, you have horrible position and it may be capped.

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I feel like my position with respect to the initial raiser is pretty good. Anyone else agree?

Also, why should it being capped worry me? 5 way 87s is pretty good regardless of the stakes right?


Just kinda sucked when it came back two to me.

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Your implied odds with your speculative hand are hurt by this kind of preflop action, so that's one problem.

Also, you could get trapped chasing a longshot expensively if you flop one pair or a gutshot.

Your relative position to the PFRs seems all right to me, though. For instance, at least the chances of getting stuck chasing a weak draw on an installment plan aren't that high.

[SeaEagle]

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I feel like my position with respect to the initial raiser is pretty good. Anyone else agree?


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Position doesn't matter all that much with 87s anyway. You're only looking to play if you make a big hand. In fact, in this case I'd almost rather be to the right of the raiser (as you are) so I could check/raise the entire field after they'd invested a bet.

I also wouldn't be too concerned about postflop action with this many players. Any non-made hand you decide to play is likely going to have enough outs to be drawing pretty cheaply even if you have to pay 2 (or more) bets on any given street.

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Also, why should it being capped worry me? 5 way 87s is pretty good regardless of the stakes right?

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13-2 (or 17-3) aren't killer odds when you know you'll need at least 2 pair to win. I'd be calling but I wouldn't argue too hard if someone I respect said I should fold.

[jstewsmole]

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Also, why should it being capped worry me?

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it shouldnt. I may even consider capping myself if deception is worth anything at this table.

[Dhani]

does anyone have instructions for pokerstat download terms?
Does it work with Paradise?

[Wacken]

Things to draw:

2 pair/FH (2,1%)
trip/quad (1,3%)
flush (0.8%)

flushdraw (10,9%)
8out-str8draw 69 / 56 (2,3%)

4out-str8draw 6T / 46 / 9T (3,4%).

That is:
4.2% chance of an almost sure win.
13,2% for to be 2 to 1 dog with an 8 out draw.
3.4% chance to be 5 to 1 dog with a 4 out draw.

Now i am a newebie and it is difficult to tell the EV of all these situations, so the next part better be re-done by someone experienced:

To keep it simple, i am gonna assume the average pot you will win when you win is 12 Big bets, not including your own bets. I am not gonna attempt to make a difference between a concealed 2 pair or a clearly visible flush.

4.2% chance of an almost sure win.

13,2% for to be 2 to 1 dog with an 8 out draw.
this adds another 4.4% to the pots you win, and 8.8% of the pots where you pay an aditional 2.5 big bets.

3.4% chance to be 5 to 1 dog with a 4 out draw.
0.6% more wins.
2.8% paying 2 more big bets. (less that the 8 outer since you wont make a value bet and you won't cold call (re)raises)

100 times you call the preflop reraise: -100 big bets.
9.2 pots you win 12 big bets: +110.4 big bets.
8.8 pots you add 2.5 big bets: -22
2.8 pots you add 2 big bets: -6.6

Total EV for this call: -18.2/100 big bets.

Of course, now you need the right numbers for my newbie estimates of 12, 2.5 and 2 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[baronzeus]

The average pot is gonna be WAY more than 12 bets, considering 10 went in preflop. I managed to get in 18 bets this time.

[Wacken]

hmm ya. 8 went in preflop right? (5*3 = 15 +SB)

so make it 14-15 maybe? increasing it more also requires increasing the post flop investment. that pretty much evens out i think.

2 more big bets in the winning pot is exactly whats need to make the call break even.

[baronzeus]

well at least 8 are in at most 10 preflop in a 5 way cap.

[Wacken]

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well at least 8 are in at most 10 preflop in a 5 way cap.

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oh ya, i did not consider a cap, that would of course make the situation only worse. and lowers the EV below 0 again.