1 card straight river, go for overcall?

[cold_cash]

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What about when you raise and they both fold?

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It would be the same as if he called and won the showdown.

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Except for the fact that the 3rd wheel might have called one bet, but not two. So, it's not really like that at all.

[istewart]

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What about when you raise and they both fold?

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It would be the same as if he called and won the showdown.

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Not if he gets the overcall.

[hemstock]

Hm... Well MP2 likes his hand. he has at least a pair. I can't see him folding after he bet the turn.

[moot]

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go for overcall?

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Yeah, and while you're at it make sure you slowplay all your sets.

[cold_cash]

I would likely raise in this particular spot, but I think you guys who are just thinking "Me have straight. Me raise." should look at the situation a little more carefully.

If you don't think this is a spot to go for an overcall that's fine. Tell us why.

[Disconnected]

I think this is close. The key to me is MP2 waking up with the donkbet on the turn. If he's doing this with TP (or worse), he's likely not to call a raise. If he's semi-bluffing the same OESD as you, you're splitting. If he picked up 2-pair or is slow-playing a flopped set (a turned set would have raised pre-flop), he'd call a raise.

UTG will probably never call a raise unless he also has a straight, but then again, he might not be overcalling anyway. Since the board is pretty drawless, though, I think whatever he's been happy with so far, he's likely to call a single bet with a worse hand.

In the end, I think it's marginally more likely that you'll get the extra bet with the overcall than you'll get paid off with a raise. If I were more confident that MP2 had more than a pair, I would change that decision.

[moot]

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If you don't think this is a spot to go for an overcall that's fine. Tell us why.

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For the same reason you don't go for overcalls with flopped sets. Because they'll call more.

First of all, MP2 is not folding. At the low limit level it's so rare to see the original bettor fold to a single raise on the river that I have to stop and say "wow, that's rare" whenever I see it.

As for UTG, in most cases at the low limit level I find that if someones going to call one on the end, they'll call two. It's the same with preflop. If they were gonna call one bet, they'll probably cold call your raise.

There's no doubt in my mind that raising rather than calling has the most profit potential, assuming you're winning this pot. The trouble comes when you consider that you may be chopping or losing (very unlikely), but the chance of that is quite small and shouldn't discourage you from pumping this.

In fact, if you're chopping then you'd love for UTG to call. Additionally, if you are chopping... and you just call, UTG will probably call and you and MP2 will chop UTG's single call. But if you raise, MP2 might reraise after UTG cold calls two, which would really be nice assuming MP2 doesn't have exactly J8.

[cold_cash]

What I'm saying is that it's more likely UTG will call a single bet on the end with a Ten than he will call two.

I can't imagine you honestly believing he's as likely to call one bet there as he is to call two.

I also think you might be underestimating the amount of time nobody calls the raise. There are four cards to a straight on the board afterall, and although it might be the exception rather than the rule, I think it'll happen more often than you do.

[Kumubou]

I agree with you that UTG is much more likely to call one to close than to call two cold. I just do not think UTG is calling much of anything on this board unless he has something solid. Some players are just that bad and will pay two on the river to see if their bottom pair is any good.

I do not agree with the statement that MP1 is folding to your raise with any frequency. It could happen, but I think it would be a rare occurance, especially at these limits.

I raise here because I honestly expect MP1 to call and I hope beyond hope UTG calls, as opposed to going for an overcall from UTG that I do not have lots of faith in happening. Now if you think chances of MP1 folding to your raise are greater than the odds of BB folding for one bet, then go for the overcall.

(Changed SB to MP1 because I'm stoooooooopid.)

-K

[Dave G.]

I'd raise it and take the (almost) sure BB from MP2 along with the chance that he feels like going to war with a weaker hand, rather than risk missing that BB on the off chance the other player will call. Especially since the other player might call it anyway.

If you had 2 or more other opponents I'd go for the overcalls.