1 card straight river, go for overcall?

thesharpie · #1 08-15-2005, 02:04 AM

First hand at the table. Comments on earlier streets also appreciated.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero (poster) raises, 3 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, UTG calls.

River: (9.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP2 bets, Hero ???

istewart · #2 08-15-2005, 02:15 AM

Preflop is good.

I would just check this flop through vs. three opponents though. Although the board is fairly ragged, there are four and a half million gutshot and overcard draws that will call you, as well as any pair.

Turn is good.

River seems interesting. A read on UTG would obviously help. If he's not a complete moron he is probably folding most hands that are not straights if you raise. The problem is I don't see any reason to think you're splitting with MP2 that often, so you're probably missing out on guaranteed value there. There's also the (remote) possibility that MP2 will fold to your river raise. I also think that if you call, UTG will call with nearly any hand he has gotten this far with.

And I still have not reached a conclusion. It actually seems incredibly close although I think I'm overlooking something. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

hemstock · #3 08-15-2005, 02:18 AM

Raise the river?

#4 08-15-2005, 02:24 AM

Only hand you can't beat is J8 right?? I raise there for sure. Probably put the cap on if he re-raises. Maybe he has 9T or TT? I don't lay awake at night fearing the only hand he could have that beats me. Maybe it's a chop but I'd rather put the bets in and see the result. Think about the range of hands he could have to bet out on the turn. You beat or chop with all but 1. This raise is +ev IMHO.

On Edit: Didn't see the question about going for the overcall. Sorry I'm tired. I think the original bettor calls the raise so if you don't get the overcall you've missed value by calling. Who knows he may have the little end of the straight and call anyway??

I don't go for the overcall here. Just because I'm sure the bettor calls the raise and you have no idea what the guy's got to overcall. Probably didn't make his hearts [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

cold_cash · #5 08-15-2005, 02:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Only hand you can't beat is J8 right?? I raise there for sure. Probably put the cap on if he re-raises. Maybe he has 9T or TT? I don't lay awake at night fearing the only hand he could have that beats me. Maybe it's a chop but I'd rather put the bets in and see the result. Think about the range of hands he could have to bet out on the turn. You beat or chop with all but 1. This raise is +ev IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he's worried about being behind so much as he's worried about maximizing his profits.

Will he win more by calling or raising?

Kumubou · #6 08-15-2005, 02:32 AM

Raise please. A few things are going to happen (in a completely unscientific way):

You call, Goof folds: +- 0 BB. (fairly likely)
You call, Goof calls: +1 BB. (somewhat likely)
You raise, Goof folds, bettor calls: +1 BB (very likely)
You raise, Goof calls, bettor calls: +3 BB (unlikely)
You raise, Goof calls or folds, bettor 3-bets with J8: oh well. (very unlikely)
You raise, Goof raises with J8 (very unlikely): tough cookies.

Raisning to me has both the higher expectation with both the expected (+1 to +0) and optimal (+3 to +1) outcome. The worst case is... well, life sucks sometimes.

-K

SoftcoreRevolt · #7 08-15-2005, 02:33 AM

Only one villain here who is less likely to call than usual on such a scary board. Raise.

cold_cash · #8 08-15-2005, 02:35 AM

What about when you raise and they both fold?

hemstock · #9 08-15-2005, 02:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What about when you raise and they both fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

It would be the same as if he called and won the showdown.

istewart · #10 08-15-2005, 02:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You call, Goof folds: +- 0 BB. (fairly likely)

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree here, which I think is part of the problem. I think the other guy folds practically never if we call the river bet, but will fold very frequently if we raise.

However, given that this is vs. unknowns, I cannot be sure of what he will call with, and raising might be best.