AQ against aggression

[WSOP Bound]

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Your analysis isn't bad, but it's a bit too straight forward. A lot of people in this thread mentioned the benefit of having 2 other people in the hand. Well yes, it's good to have them putting money into the pot when they don't outdraw you, but some percentage of the time, one of these two people will either have you beaten already with trip 8s (or even a very timidly played AK), or will outdraw you on the end. There's a flush draw on the board, and someone else could have another A and pair their kicker (doesn't matter unless that kicker is higher than 8).

Additionally, if you do catch a Q and someone has something like Q8, or the Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] falls and someone has the flush, you're going to lose a lot more than just 2BB. If you do catch an A and UTG has 88 (which certainly can't be ignored), you're going to lose more as well.

Another thing is that you aren't guaranteed to see a showdown for only 2BB. If someone raises behind you and UTG 3-bets, you aren't getting to showdown at all (I hope).

Rare those all of these occurances might be, combined they aren't all THAT rare, especially with 3 other people still in the hand. They will occur with some probability and that needs to be factored into your assessment somehow. Simply saying that calling down is +EV 7.5BB only tells half the story.

So really, the 2 extra players are actually a double edged sword. Yes their money is good, but it's not all peaches and roses. If you had position on them it would be better, but since one of them has position on you, their disadvantage is moreso.

Given that you are behind most of the time here, and all of these other considerations, I think folding is the correct play.

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Agreed. There are a lot of possibilities that I did not account for. I think that this is a very good point that I was missing. Is there a sufficent way to quantify these scenarios when making these desisions or is this just an experience issue? I'm guessing that the first step is to not ignore UTG & CO. But the problem is that I have difficulty putting them on a hand.