AQ against aggression

WSOP Bound · #1 08-13-2005, 09:06 AM

I've been on the table for about two orbits. So far it's a typical UB table (read: sLP). UTG+1 seems slightly aggressive, but then again with only 20 hands it doesn't mean too much. Over 20 or so hands even the most passive among us can look like a maniac.

Ultimate Bet 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, CO calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 3-bets, Hero caps, CO calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (12.70 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero ???

What do I do here? I capped the flop and he leads back out on the turn. Certainly seems like he has a hand, but to some extent so do I. I can't seem to decide wether it's correct to throw in another raise or go into call down mode right here.

Edit: Obviously he leads the turn after I capped the flop. I need more sleep [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Dave G. · #2 08-13-2005, 09:20 AM

If it looks like a set, smells like a set, and acts like a set... it's probably a set. He knows you raised PF, he knows you probably have an ace, and he doesn't care.

I would fold it right here. I know I'll probably be tarred and feathered for suggesting that after capping the flop, but I'd really like to hear a decent argument for continuing from this point. What can we hope for? We don't have odds to draw to another A and a Q may not help us at all. The only hand he could play like this that we're infront of is A2. Not a very wide range of hands.

We should only continue if we aren't sure if we're beaten. Considering the action, I'm pretty damn sure we're beaten. I can't see how calling down from here isn't anything more than a further waste of 2 BB.

#3 08-13-2005, 10:00 AM

I think it smells like A8s. Utg+1 limp seems pretty typical with that hand, and with all that agression on the flop, and betting out on the turn, i'd fold the turn. not a lot of hands you beat.

Watain · #4 08-13-2005, 10:24 AM

Well, he is representing two-pair or a-k. If you don´t have a good read, i would´nt put him on a bluff. And CO+UTG presence should mean that you are NOT ahead here.

If you hit an A on the river you are properbly good. But i looks like 1 or 2 of them is already in play. I give you 1 out for the A then. Lets say there is a 1/3 chance that someone hit a set of 8. That would ruin you Q. I give them 2 outs.

So you are drawing to three outs. I would consider folding this because you might be raised or c/r on the flop.

NobodysFreak · #5 08-13-2005, 11:13 AM

Grunching...

He called your PFR so I think its safe to assume he doesn't have a bigger ace or something like AA, KK, QQ, or AK. I'm likely putting him on two pair or a set on the flop. Once the turn hits, I'm mucking this. An A is probably the only card that can save you and it looks like villian might have it. I think its safe to muck on the turn.

gharp · #6 08-13-2005, 11:35 AM

The flop action is consistent with an aggressive player who had A2 or a smaller A (AT, AJ). You're not really sure if he's aggressive, but over a small sample all indications are that he is.

I think you're getting 6:1 to call down here and there are two other players padding the pot who are probably drawing thin. I'll take those odds (with that overlay) and call down. I'm not folding top frickin pair in this pot.

bozlax · #7 08-13-2005, 12:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1 seems slightly aggressive

...

Certainly seems like he has a hand, but to some extent so do I.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have more than a hand to some extent...you have a very strong hand. You are very possibly drawing dead, here, but against a relative unknown I'm going to call down. If UTG or CO comes alive and starts raising I'll bail out, but otherwise I want to show this down and make Villan look me in the eye (metaphorically) when he shows me his ATo.

bozlax · #8 08-13-2005, 12:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The only hand he could play like this that we're infront of is A2. Not a very wide range of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. You're not allowing for a very wide range of hands. It's .25/.50, for Mike's sake! Villan could have a mid-pp. He could have a weaker ace. He could have a big-pp that he didn't want to raise preflop because he just read the section in WLLH about position. Who knows?

Call it down. It certainly looks like he's going to be aggro with whatever he's holding, but you're being padded by the two additional players. I don't want to get into a war with him (unless a third ace falls), tho, so soft-play to showdown.

bozlax · #9 08-13-2005, 12:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would consider folding this because you might be raised or c/r on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you're not going to be c/r'd anywhere, and not on the flop, either. And since UTG and CO didn't act up on the flop, and you seem to think UTG+1 is holding all the cards, I doubt you're going to see a raise from anybody on the turn or river. So, you're risking 2 bets to win what looks like it'll be 18...you really think at .25/.50 you're bad more than 8 times in 9?

Dave G. · #10 08-13-2005, 12:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree. You're not allowing for a very wide range of hands. It's .25/.50, for Mike's sake! Villan could have a mid-pp. He could have a weaker ace. He could have a big-pp that he didn't want to raise preflop because he just read the section in WLLH about position. Who knows?

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on. I think you're being a little naive here. We raised preflop, capped the flop and he's still firing on the turn. There is quite obviously an ace on the board that he simply doesn't care about. Now I know we play some really stupid horrible players, but only a full blown maniac is going this crazy on this board without the goods. That read certainly wasn't mentioned anywhere in the post.

How much evidence would you need to realise that our chances of being good here are tiny? Top pair is a nice hand and all, but more than likely we're just padding the pot for villain. Some of the best money we make off sets comes from everyone calling all the way with second best hands. That's what our hand is here the overwhelming majority of the time.

Calling down here is like picking up a dollar coin and throwing it away. I'll eat my hat if hero wins this hand.