KK - called 3 bet preflop, now facing flop allin - deepish stacks

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Is it really 60% likely he doesn't have AA?

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Yes, a super LAG plays the hand this way with AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, and some other hands like small PPs when he feels lucky - I would call his open push on that flop if everything currently in the pot was taken as rake giving me 1:1

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If that is true then I would have expected to see him 3 betting preflop more often. In 300+ hands this was the first time I was aware of it, and I was paying pretty close attention to him.

Most LAGs I know like to make speculative bets and raises. A good defense against this is to reraise them with your solid hands. There is of course an excellent chance they have nothing much, and so they are forced onto the back foot (fold or call). This is why playing back at LAGs with decent hands is a good idea.

But a LAG gets AA etc just as often as everyone else. If you make your play back at him and he comes at you again then at that point I think its reasonable to think he has the goods. If not he is a maniac. Nothing in the stats and hands I posted suggest this player is a maniac.

[djoyce003]

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He bet less than a third of his stack on the flop in the earlier hand where I had QQ. Not an open push.

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good point, i missed that...he did however, overbet the pot.

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I'd push in on the 2nd hand for sure. I'd have probably 3-bet the first hand against a LAG like that, too.

Edit: ok, I read further on. It's hard to get a feel for the texture of his play here. However, someone betting 33% pfr over hundreds of hands is probably 3-betting a lot more than AA. I'm fairly certain that *I* wouldn't give him credit for AA, and I'd push. In fact, given that you reraised, depending on how he views you, he may be thinking that you have QQ/KK/AA/AK; if you push preflop, he folds, and otherwise, he pushes on the flop unless there's an A or K out. I think here you have to go a bit deeper. To understand what to do here, you have to figure out not just your villain, but what your villain thinks of you, to decide how likely it is he's playing you.

[kevkev60614]

I remember HOH1 saying something really wise about fearing AA when you have KK. Wish I'd brought that book to work with me today.

[djoyce003]

harrington says it is stupid to fear it basically. You give up a ton of value giving credit for AA when you have KK.

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On page 240 of HoH1 he relates a story of holding KK and being 3 bet from a tight player and he almost threw his hand away, but then didn't.

He then goes on to say that trying to guess when your opponent has aces and you have kings isn't worth it, just play them like the best hand.

I quote: "you only have a limited amount of time in tournaments to make money before the blinds devour you, so put the whip to your good hands ..".

My hand is not from a tournament, its from a cash game, the blinds are not going up, and I have all them time in the world to get money from my opponent (or others when he is gone).

I started the hand with an effective stack of 162BBs. This, to me, is large enough to consider getting away from KK. The alternative, proposed by most respondants, is that you are happy to go bust with KK when you have 162BBs and your opponent has AA. I don't think this is the best way to make money in the NL cash games I play.

I don't think its an egregious error to never consider laying down KK with this stack size, but I do think its an error.

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On page 240 of HoH1 he relates a story of holding KK and being 3 bet from a tight player and he almost threw his hand away, but then didn't.

He then goes on to say that trying to guess when your opponent has aces and you have kings isn't worth it, just play them like the best hand.

I quote: "you only have a limited amount of time in tournaments to make money before the blinds devour you, so put the whip to your good hands ..".

My hand is not from a tournament, its from a cash game, the blinds are not going up, and I have all them time in the world to get money from my opponent (or others when he is gone).

I started the hand with an effective stack of 162BBs. This, to me, is large enough to consider getting away from KK. The alternative, proposed by most respondants, is that you are happy to go bust with KK when you have 162BBs and your opponent has AA. I don't think this is the best way to make money in the NL cash games I play.

I don't think its an egregious error to never consider laying down KK with this stack size, but I do think its an error.

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Oh, I thought you weren't sure as to what the right play was on this hand. If I realized you had already made up your mind, I wouldn't have bothered responding.

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I called.

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I called, he flipped AA, I suckout good with a K on the river.

Well, results oriented no doubt, but if it walks and talks like a duck it often is a duck. And by often I mean 40%+ of the time.