TP on monotone flop, heads up against unknown. - Page 3

GrunchCan · #21 08-11-2005, 02:05 PM

Ok, good. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Not trying to beat a dead horse, but given that you agree that 65:35 is a good edge, why do you not cap for value? If you agree that we hanve an equity edge, and that edge is wide, then there is clear value in capping here, no?

Maybe later when I'm not at work I'll do an EV calculation.

thejameser · #22 08-11-2005, 02:05 PM

flop=good edge
nonheart turn=VERY good edge with bigger bet

ThomasPHoolery · #23 08-11-2005, 02:07 PM

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Oh, as the dude who burned down the Bluth banana stand said, "most definitely."

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his name is T-Bone

W. Deranged · #24 08-11-2005, 02:08 PM

The main reason is that if we cap the flop we will not be able to get two bets in on the turn. By getting one small bet in at 65-35 we very likely forego the chance to get two bets in at 80-20. Villain will usually not lead back to us when capped on the flop, and, when he does, we're usually beat anyway.

That's the main idea. I also don't want to be capping on the flop and then learning on the turn that I'm drawing dead. Not only is the turn equity edge likely to be more pronounced, but the information we will get about the strength of our hand is much clearer as well.

GrunchCan · #25 08-11-2005, 02:08 PM

More syntactic efficiency. I like it.
[ QUOTE ]
flop=good edge

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That's enough reason for me to bet now. If the situation were this instead:

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flop=thin edge
turn=bigger edge or equity deficet

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...that's when I'm waiting for the turn. Not here.

ellipse_87 · #26 08-11-2005, 02:31 PM

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Why do we want to "represent" hearts? Do you think there's any legitimate chance we are folding a better hand here because they'll put us on a made flush?

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I'll defer to Deranged b/c I'm not an advanced player and his post is better reasoned than mine. However, by calling the flop don't we forfeit the opportunity to fold a non-heart hand when a heart falls on the turn?

callmedonnie · #27 08-11-2005, 02:51 PM

Does anyone ever just call a single bet on the flop and then raise the turn? I do this rather than raising.

That said, if its three bet I think cap a raise non heart turn is the way to go.

W. Deranged · #28 08-11-2005, 02:59 PM

I don't think so. A big heart does not necessarily have to keep jamming the flop.

You'll be surprised how bad some of your opponents are at hand-reading. They often forget past action when thinking about hands. We can certainly still fold a non-heart hand because they'll get scared of the hearts.

Consider also what non-heart hands here we want to fold.

ellipse_87 · #29 08-11-2005, 03:05 PM

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Consider also what non-heart hands here we want to fold.

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True. I was also trying to think of a single low heart that we could fold on a four-flush turn, but I couldn't think of any that would still be in play, save an aggressive and distrustful middle pair.

Entity · #30 08-11-2005, 03:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, good. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Not trying to beat a dead horse, but given that you agree that 65:35 is a good edge, why do you not cap for value? If you agree that we hanve an equity edge, and that edge is wide, then there is clear value in capping here, no?

Maybe later when I'm not at work I'll do an EV calculation.

[/ QUOTE ]

The biggest problem is that you're rarely a 65:35 favorite here. I'd actually say it's very unlikely. You're about a 54:46 over the bare A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. You're 56:44 over a hand like T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2o. It's a coinflip to J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. You're a dog to J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

The only time you're a 65:35 favorite is against something like an unpaired J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

This is a big deal on a hand like this.

Your flop edge, in general, is quite thin here. The only time I'm raising the flop is against a villain who I know, from experience, won't bet a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the turn.

Also, in general, if I call the flop and raise the turn and am 3-bet, it's a fairly easy fold. Raising the flop (and especially capping a flop 3-bet, which I think is pretty terrible) tends to bloat the pot in such a way that y'all are gonna have a hard time folding a hand that's drawing dead.

Rob