Determining if Im getting unlucky or outplayed.

[MustangMarc]

Let me respond to a few points, hopefully with some useful advice.

Having big pairs be a money loser over thousands of hands is a leak. Some of those losses must be coming when you are behind on the turn or flop. In fact, I would say lot of the time that's true.

The hand with the Queens versus the flush draw is an example. For the number of outs the villan has, you are actually an underdog. Any diamond, any Ace, any Nine, makes 14 outs, which puts him slightly ahead with two cards to win. One of your two outs is a diamond, so you'd be in an uncomfortable position if it came on the turn or river. That board is not really friendly for QQ. There are two connected cards that are a danger due to the two pair and the straight draw posibilities, plus there are two to a flush. If anything, it's surprising two people folded. It's OK to bet and even re-raise here, but I think it is also to check since you're out of position. You might get a bet behind you that you can re-raise and get more callers. At worst, you see the flop for free to see if another unfriendly card appears. An unfriendly card did appear in form of an overcard. I would not bet out at this point, and probably just fold to a bet. You got information on the flop that the BB liked his hand. Don't throw away that information, throw away the no-longer-top-pair hand, or just check/call to showdown if there is enough money in the pot to be profitable.

I found what you said here interesting:
[ QUOTE ]
I am finding I'll involve myself maybe 1 out of 50 (sometimes fewer if there is a lot of raising) hands and lose every time. If I do win its only the blinds or a very small pot. When I lose its a monster pot because I have been doing what everyone suggests. 3 betting the draws on as many rounds as I can. Often they are raising thier own draws anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your VP$IP is 2% at times? Bad players play poorly, but they are not stupid. They will notice you are only playing big pairs, which is true if you are folding everything else just because they are betting and raising like usual. They are reading you, because you are too tight. That means they get out of the way when you are out of position, and charging you more than you'd like when you are in position, so you fold. It also means they know all they have to do is beat an over pair, so they bet, raise, and re-raise their flush and straight draws, and probably other hands like two-pair. If the crowd you are with will bet and raise with junk, then you want to pick a few places where you have position and you have a semi-decent hand like ATs that you'd normally throw away if there is a raise and a re-raise ahead of you. Don't play any two cards, but play a few more in the back even though there is action ahead of you, if there is always action ahead of you.

Hope this helps. In the end, this is a game of you against other thinking humans. All the advice in the world can only go so far. You have to out-think your opponents on your own. Don't do something just 'cause a book said to, take the actions you think are the best, while trying to understand why a book or poster said what they said.

[oreogod]

To whom it may concern:

I hate money...and I definitly hate to maximize the amount I make on my good hands...or how to protect my medium strength hands. I also hate to make it tough for ppl playing against me, I find I like being predictible and easy to read. I also like that anybody with half a brain knows to stay out of my way when Im in a hand...I also like that some aggressive players can get me to fold the best hand sometimes.

Playing like a beginner makes me feel warm inside, advancing as a player is definitly for the birds. Who wants that...taking time and learning that poker is a hugely profitable game and Im missing out...psssshhh. yeah, Im sure.

I really like comfort, I hate stepping outside of my zone, yes being stagnant is best. The unknown after all is unknown, what if I misunderstand it...I mean, if I dont take the time to understand the concepts, it will ruin me and my little weak-tight system I have going on here. I like making money, but being a marginal winner is enough for me.

[Doc]

I know the same type of thing has happened to me recently. I would keep rereading SSH and trying to ramp up the aggression as it seems to direct and went on a 200 bb downswing over several days (thankfully I am overbankrolled for 2/4).

Finally 3 lights dawned on me...

1. Biggest thing is that I was failing to differentiate the big pots from the little pots. I was always looking for a way to "protect my hand" when maybe it wasn't appropriate.
Aggression is extremely important, but you have to pick your spots.

2. I found I was losing a lot of money chasing with second pair. I had to become more selective on when to chase.

3. I was not properly discounting my outs for coordinated boards.

After making the adjustments, I am back averaging 2.3 bb/100 (I know it's not amazing, but I am happy with it.

BTW, if I am off on any of these thoughts, please let me know.

Thanks, and keep after it,

Doc

[Onaflag]

[ QUOTE ]
To whom it may concern:

I hate money...and I definitly hate to maximize the amount I make on my good hands...or how to protect my medium strength hands. I also hate to make it tough for ppl playing against me, I find I like being predictible and easy to read. I also like that anybody with half a brain knows to stay out of my way when Im in a hand...I also like that some aggressive players can get me to fold the best hand sometimes.

Playing like a beginner makes me feel warm inside, advancing as a player is definitly for the birds. Who wants that...taking time and learning that poker is a hugely profitable game and Im missing out...psssshhh. yeah, Im sure.

I really like comfort, I hate stepping outside of my zone, yes being stagnant is best. The unknown after all is unknown, what if I misunderstand it...I mean, if I dont take the time to understand the concepts, it will ruin me and my little weak-tight system I have going on here. I like making money, but being a marginal winner is enough for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

EOT......seriously

EOT

Onaflag.............

[PokerFoo]

---
The hand with the Queens versus the flush draw is an example. For the number of outs the villan has, you are actually an underdog.
---

Interesting that the 'stranger' with the fewest posts has offered up one of the only useful replies so far.

Yes! Ive been going through my hand histories like crazy and I have found that this is frequently the case when I play these big hands. If I am not an underdog to one of the 4 or 5 hands I am up against I am only turning out to be a VERY slight favorite.

This is why I decided to go back to my old style of play which was profitable. I dont need to be risking BIG in marginal situations.

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So you're not willing to learn or find out what you're doing wrong, and instead will go back to your set-in ways of play that even you consider weak-tight? Great plan.
-----

You say "weak tight" like its a bad thing. If the game is loose aggressive, this may very well be the best appraoch in many situations.

And,Yes. I have been trying like hell to learn and figure out what Im doing wrong. And I have run into great resistance. While there may be some great players who frequent this forum, there arent many great teachers. Id say 3 or 4 posts in this 4 page thread had some useful information or a link to some. The rest is just a bunch of folks stroking thier own egos and trying to feel good about themselves for the day by being an ass to someone else. Maybe they think thier funny or something, I dont know. Really dont care. My commenting is probbaly just perpetuating more of it but Im not going to lay down (pardon the pun) to some uptight forum trolls who like to feel important by being nasty.

...Anyway, yes, I think it is is good plan. Here is why.

I know my big pairs dont fair well against lots of opponants. Just like AXs is a situational hand that requires good position and many players in, big pairs are similar in that they are situational and I want to have very few players in. I cant afford a ton of big bets to go to the showdown with them in a family pot. Especially when they dont improve on the flop.

My old style was to be VERY cautious with them in large pots with lots of players. Especially on certain boards. SSH says its +EV and I have the best hand so Jack it up. But this is just making the situation better for the junk that made it to the flop. Perhaps its the dead money hands that are laying most of the pot odds out there but it really doesnt matter. Its enough to keep in all kinds of draws from the guy trying for 2 odd pair to the flush.

Maybe some of you with bottomless bankrolls can afford the huge varience to make an extra few bucks in +EV. I want to keep my varience as low as possable and if that means missing out on a few scraps, thats ok. Missing a few small scraps of +EV doesnt mean I cant make money. Until I can master other spots that make me money (ie playing more hands) I cant afford to make a leak or create a huge varience to earn an extra buck or two in this spot with the big pairs at the risk of having 300BB swings in 1/2 limit games.

Thankfully. I had a good night tonight and I managed to grind back much of my losses. Not surprisingly, I folded quite a few big pairs on the flop and turn when the betting started going crazy. Maybe I was bluffed out of a couple (probabbly). But more than a few times I felt very happy when then showdown came and I would have lost to middle and bottom pair (why do I see that so often), a freak straight draw or the flush. And the few I did stay with I managed to get extra bets in holding a FH or set by having the hand dusguised.

I still need to learn more concepts though. Some of the links offered up led me on a few interesting trails (still have to wade through the troll posts though) of information. But I think this one leak I had last month has been fixed... or at least temporarily plugged.

Somone else asked how often I am seeing flops as well... Inbetween 17 and 25% depending on the run of the cards and the table dynamic. Probably leans towards fewer more often than not. Some people tell me this is too tight and I can pay 2 bets pre flop to see more hands in late position when theres 2 callers already in. Others say I shouldnt be. So I dont know.

[shant]

I'm not stroking my ego. I'm being honest and trying to help. I'm not going to be nice and gentle and tell you to keep folding big pairs. Like I said before, I don't think you're cut out for poker. Being happy about playing weak tight is ridiculous. I hope you will see the error of your ways soon, and be open to learning and growing as a player.

[oreogod]

I think you have it in you to write the Mein Kempf of the poker world. In which the weak tighties struggle to keep the game pure, lashing out against such Tag-ish thoughts of Equity and EV which are such a corruptive force to your game. The persecution of probability and odds...yes yes can u see it now, how to attain such bliss within ignorance!<evil smile here> Oh yes, <evil laugh here> can u see it!? <evil laugh here> think of it! <really ominous evil laugh here that echos through really cavernous dank hallway>.

Seriously, though, if you are not going to put some time into learning the game, you might as well, do something useful...like I suggested above. Am I right?

[shant]

You are on fire.

[cdxx]

any time you change your game (SSHE guidelines are a big adjustment for anyone starting out) you are more likely to start losing before you actually make money. the difference is you are simply not comfortable with a new system of playing as opposed to your old habits. (disclaimer: i don't actually know what you were playing before, but i went from straight up LPP style, to Lee Jones's guidelines, to SSHE and each time i experienced the worst of it before i climbed to +BB/100).

new betting moves makes it harder for you to read opponents calls and reraises, reading how they adjust to you, etc. consequently, it was hard for me to stop leaks on the river, and stop drawing dead on the turn. also, SSHE pretty much advocates (if not relies) on adjusting to the styles of your opponents. you will need to learn that (and best if you master it) before you start crushing games. Still straight up SSHE should be a moderately +EV strategy.