Value betting, when do you stop, if ever?? - Page 2

#11 07-31-2005, 08:59 PM

I think pf is an easy call. It is not cold, I was BB so it was only 1 SB with no chance of a raise behind me. With 8 people in that is 16:1 pot odds.

@bsolute_luck · #12 07-31-2005, 10:07 PM

i have no idea what you are doing in this hand.

preflop: standard.
flop: with the PRF to our immediate left, we did we bet out on this flop? c/r if anything.

turn: again i have no idea what is going on. you have no hand and your c/r here with a 9-high flush draw? sure it improve to a gutshot, but i still don't get it.

grjr · #13 07-31-2005, 10:11 PM

I wouldn't cap the turn here with having the nut flush draw. With that many people sticking around this long I think you're really looking at an 8 that isn't a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] as your only sure chance of scooping the pot. There's a good chance there's a better flush draw out there and if a 3 hits you're only using one card so you might split that.

Oh, and anyone that doesn't call one more in the BB in this situation is nuts. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Angrymoog · #14 07-31-2005, 10:21 PM

This pot is huge. Hero may have a draw, but correct me if I'm wrong, doesn't SSH tell us we never want to "keep people in the pot?" I don't mind the flop bet, because you then know that everyone will likely be faced calling 2 sb. The more individuals you can cause to fold the greater your equity.

cold_cash · #15 07-31-2005, 10:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This pot is huge. Hero may have a draw, but correct me if I'm wrong, doesn't SSH tell us we never want to "keep people in the pot?" I don't mind the flop bet, because you then know that everyone will likely be faced calling 2 sb. The more individuals you can cause to fold the greater your equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not winning on the flop, and you won't win unless you hit one of your draws. Why drive people out?

Also, you're quote from SSHE is incorrect. There are plenty of times when you want to keep people in the pot, and this is one of them.

Let's say we bet the flop and UTG+1 raises w/ a set of Aces or AK, (or hell, any hand better than 9 high), and isolates you. Now you're still drawing, but instead of getting 3 or 4 or even 5 to 1 on future bets you're getting even money. That's no fun.

Basically we're not looking for hand protection here, we're looking for lots of bets from lots of players.

The turn is tough, and grjr has some good points in his post.

Angrymoog · #16 07-31-2005, 11:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This pot is huge. Hero may have a draw, but correct me if I'm wrong, doesn't SSH tell us we never want to "keep people in the pot?" I don't mind the flop bet, because you then know that everyone will likely be faced calling 2 sb. The more individuals you can cause to fold the greater your equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not winning on the flop, and you won't win unless you hit one of your draws. Why drive people out?

Also, you're quote from SSHE is incorrect. There are plenty of times when you want to keep people in the pot, and this is one of them.

Let's say we bet the flop and UTG+1 raises w/ a set of Aces or AK, (or hell, any hand better than 9 high), and isolates you. Now you're still drawing, but instead of getting 3 or 4 or even 5 to 1 on future bets you're getting even money. That's no fun.

Basically we're not looking for hand protection here, we're looking for lots of bets from lots of players.

The turn is tough, and grjr has some good points in his post.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a 16 sb pot, I don't think you're going to be isolated by the raiser. Let's say you are though. the pot is now 10 BB on the turn. You can call down profitably as long as you can win 1 in 10 pots.

Additionally , forcing players to cold call 2 bets on the flop might just convince someone with a single high flush card to fold, whereas if you keep them in, they get a redraw if you make your flush on the turn.

But that's ok, I'm wrong here, you don't have anything to gain by knocking players out.

cold_cash · #17 07-31-2005, 11:17 PM

Your point about the redraw is a good one, but I still don't want to be isolated with 9 high.

When I'm drawing to a big hand, and I KNOW that I'm drawing, I would like many opponents.

If the flop had come 9 high with a gut-shot, or I had flopped two-pair on a two-tone board, that's different.

cfjr2 · #18 07-31-2005, 11:28 PM

i believe there are 5 people calling beside you. You have to determine how often you will win (draw to your hand) and if it is not the Nut draw, how often will you win. In this case if you will win more than 1 in 6 it is a value bet.

Example if you determine you will win 1 in 5 times that means you bet 1 bb and they call for 5 bb you lose 4 times and win once - so you lose 4 bb and win 5 so it is a value bet.

That said I don't think you make your hand and win more than 1 in 6 here so call

Angrymoog · #19 07-31-2005, 11:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your point about the redraw is a good one, but I still don't want to be isolated with 9 high.

When I'm drawing to a big hand, and I KNOW that I'm drawing, I would like many opponents.

If the flop had come 9 high with a gut-shot, or I had flopped two-pair on a two-tone board, that's different.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been thinking about it for a couple minutes and I suspect that in this example, the difference between betting and checkraising might be very marginal.

You figure a backdoor flush comes 23 to 1 odds against. so that means 1 in 24 pots when you checkraise and keep everyone in, you lose a whole pot. When you bet and get people to fold, you win smaller pots when you make your flush. It seems that you would lose a few bets, maybe 1 or 2 each round with option two, but you dont lose pot #24. It seems really close.

I also thought you might be able to get more bets in if you bet and are raised, becasue you can 3-bet. If you check raise, the pf raiser might only call.

All in all to be fair, I think theres a negligible difference between the two tactics, with neither of them being obviously the better value.

LoaferGee12 · #20 07-31-2005, 11:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Now I'm no carpel'tunnel, but why did u cold call an earlyposition with 69s? a few callers, but I don't see pot odds in this...please someone correct me.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero's getting 15:1 closing the action. I'd have to be holding tarot cards to fold preflop for 15:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Norman Chad, is that you?