Am I really this awful? (LC)

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
Folded BB to Steal: 67%
Folded to River Bet: 52%
Postflop AF: Flop-3.27, Turn 2.9, River 1.9

[/ QUOTE ]


Too high
Too high
Too high

[gehrig]

You're just running bad. Even if you're hopeless post-flop, being reasonable pre-flop should be enough to guaruntee that you're not a losing player at that level.

[wheelz]

That's just terrible advice. Postflop play is far more important. Far, far more. Even at that level.

[gehrig]

I didn't say it wasn't.

Being reasonable pre-flop should be enough to be a long term winner against guys that are awful pre and post flop.

He still obviously has a lot to do to improve his game.

[wheelz]

OK, you're right, I shouldn't have said that. What I mean is, you're wrong, playing tight preflop but poorly postflop will not lead to winning poker, even at that level.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
You're just running bad. Even if you're hopeless post-flop, being reasonable pre-flop should be enough to guaruntee that you're not a losing player at that level.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong, wrong, and also, wrong. If he's spewing with AK every time he misses a flop against 3 other opponents (and note those aggression factors) then that tight preflop play isn't going to do him a ton of good. Especially if he's sacrificing his blinds a lot.

Telling him he's "just running bad" after he starts his SH career with a 250BB downswing is not only ignorant, it's downright harmful.

From a stat point of view -- if his SD is 18BB/100 (and it's probably lower, if he's that tight), his 95% CI after 5000 hands is -5 +/- 1.96*18/sqrt(50), or [-10, 0].

In other words, ignoring other evidence to the contrary (and we have no SH evidence to the contrary, these are his first 5k hands), even if he were merely a break-even player he'd only run this bad 2.5% of the time.

Once you hit a downswing of this size, unless there is strong evidence to the contrary, it's time to assume the worst. Our OP here is probably a break-even player at best.

(At least, if I were OP this is what I'd conclude. For us on the boards, I suppose we have to assume that of 200 people moving to low-limit SH, one of them is going to be a slightly winning player but still have a run like this, and post about it, and hey, it's probably this guy. Statistics = annoying.)

But telling OP that he's that 1 in 200 or 1 in 1000 fluke . . . not comfortable doing that.

[mtgordon]

Maybe this is a stupid question, but how different is the post flop play of 6 max when compared to a full ring game? I'm doing very well at the full ring game (4+ bb/100) so I find it hard to believe that my post flop play is that poor. However, if I should be playing post flop drastically different in 6max that could be the reason I'm doing so poorly.