Am I really this awful? (LC)

[mtgordon]

I started playing some .5/1 6max when it started on party. At that time I was beating .5/1 full for 4+ bb/100 thru 25k hands. The players at 6max seem awful, yet through 5k hands my winrate is -4.8bb/100. I know that this is a small sample size, but that's also a very negative winrate. Should I be very concerned or should I keep plugging away and expect it to get better?

Thanks

[Grisgra]

That's a -250BB swing, which means yes, you should be concerned. Any time I undergo a downslide of more than 100BB I start examining my play, and it is extraordinarily rare for those not playing 50k+ hands a month to undergo downswings of more than 200BB without some severely bad play mixed in there.

[Poldi]

When I played 6max at 1/2, my winrate was -5 in the first 5k hands. I knew i was running VERY bad. After 10k hands my winrate was positive.
So it really is a small sample but if you dont honestly feel that you are just on a terrible downswing, you probably are not and should be concerned.

Edit: Oops, didnt see it was 25k hands. I guess its more than just bad luck [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[baronzeus]

Most adjustments from full to 6 have one of two problems:

1. Being too weak tight. Having a VPIP of 17 and folding to tons of river bets is horrid.

2. Being too aggressive. This is by far the most prevalant problem, and it happened to me when I started 1/2. My vpip was 36 and my PFR was 29, and I was trying to push people off of better hands by betting and raising. Don't do this.

[mtgordon]

You were right the first time; I only have 5k 6 max hands. The 25k is full. I feel like I am getting very unlucky, but most people probably do when they are losing. My big losers seem to be my big Aces like AQo, AQs, AJ... so I'm not sure if I'm just getting unlucky or playing them too aggressively. My VPIP 21.9% and PFR 14.2% seem to be about right, so I guess I'll try another 1k or so and see how that feels and where I'm at. Thanks for the advice.

[baronzeus]

Get your PFR up. 17 is a good starting point.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
Get your PFR up. 17 is a good starting point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not if his VPIP is only 21%.

If this is his run after his first 5k hands -- that is, he has no track record of doing well at SH -- then his 250BB slide is almost definitely due bad play, not bad luck, and anyone who just chants the mantra of "small sample size" is doing this guy a huge disservice. He should be posting hands, maybe a general stats post (or check out the stats-sticky-post-in-development) and work from there.

[MikeNaked]

What's your Folded BB to Steal? Attempt to Steal? Folded to River Bet? Postflop AF #s?

The answer most likely lies within.

[Poldi]

I guess it depends on the person. I am sure most (or almost all [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ) losing players think they are just unlucky.
Thats a tough part about poker, you never really know where you are. In my case it helped me a lot through this bad swing that I had the strong feeling that I was running bad. I saw the thread from krishan about how to determine if you are running bad and my stats were awful.
It really helped me to stay positive and play through it.
Now I even got the confidence this month to take a shot at 3/6 and wow.. perfect timing for a major upswing [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
I lost 300$ today but I dont feel bad at all about it. I am probably still ahead variance-wise.

It depends if you can be really honest with yourself. Do you just think you got bad cards or are you sure about it and wouldnt say so just to feel better about it?
If you go my way, you might lose a lot of money if you lied to yourself and are not ready yet but play anyways. Just wanted to share my experience that it doesnt neccessarily mean (yet) that you are not ready.

[mtgordon]

Folded BB to Steal: 67%
Folded to River Bet: 52%
Postflop AF: Flop-3.27, Turn 2.9, River 1.9