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#11
07-24-2005, 03:18 AM
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Re: Hit a pair on the turn but I still ain\'t pleased.
[ QUOTE ]
Definitely not given the likelyhood of you getting raised and shutting out the fish. I like your turn check too, given your read that he plays the expensive streets more aggressively. I would call this turn bet because I think you're being pessimistic about estimating your outs. What reason do you have to believe anybody has a J or a T? [/ QUOTE ] Specifically J or T? none. But JJ and TT are certainly possible as he raised preflop, and really these are the only hands I'd put him on where I'm ahead here--anything else and I'm either 4 or 5 outs to either a win or tie. As it played out, I folded and the river was a blank; the PFR had QQ and the cold-caller A5s. 
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#12
07-24-2005, 03:31 AM
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Re: Hit a pair on the turn but I still ain\'t pleased.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Definitely not given the likelyhood of you getting raised and shutting out the fish. I like your turn check too, given your read that he plays the expensive streets more aggressively. I would call this turn bet because I think you're being pessimistic about estimating your outs. What reason do you have to believe anybody has a J or a T? [/ QUOTE ] Specifically J or T? none. But JJ and TT are certainly possible as he raised preflop, and really these are the only hands I'd put him on where I'm ahead here--anything else and I'm either 4 or 5 outs to either a win or tie. [/ QUOTE ] OK you're probably right that a J on the river isn't likely to help you given his range of hands. But a river'd T? I like your chances of taking it down yourself with the 1-card straight... Not saying it's an easy call. It's close, and I suck at math.
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#13
07-24-2005, 03:41 AM
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Re: Hit a pair on the turn but I still ain\'t pleased.
Grunching:-
You should be check/calling the flop for one bet, since you have the implied odds to go for the gutshot coupled with the backdoor flush possibilities. When the PFR checks I start to smell a rat. Most pre-flop raisers bet this flop regardless of whether they have an ace. When he checks I start to suspect he has AA, AQ or QQ and he is making some kind of daft slowplay, particularly given your read on his pre-flop raising requirements. I certainly am not calling the turn with the pot being so small.
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