Hit a pair on the turn but I still ain't pleased.

Eeegah · #1 07-23-2005, 06:48 PM

Reads: Pretty typical for a Stars .25/.50 game, although perhaps a bit looser than usual, although preflop raises have been a bit rare. The PFR is a calling station with somewhat tight raise requirements (AA-QQ AKs AKo so far) and just a little looser than nominal, but is much more aggressive on the turn and river than he is on the flop. While the cold caller doesn't have many hands so far he looks to be a typical fish.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero calls, 2 folds, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, 5 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks.

Turn: (3.70 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, MP2 calls, Hero...

On the flop, I have no overcards but I do have a backdoor flush draw and a gutshot. Is this enough to bet?

On the turn, I hit a pair but I'm still not happy. It puts 3 to a straight on the board, making a split if I hit my gutshot likelier (all someone needs is another J) and I've lost my flush draw. In addition, there three face cards, so I'm currently way behind damn near anything I can put him on except JJ (if he raises that). The pot isn't exactly all that great either. Do I bother calling this turn?

hemstock · #2 07-23-2005, 06:54 PM

Maybe I would raise. But then I was gonna look at the 3bb pot and fold [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Eeegah · #3 07-23-2005, 06:56 PM

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Maybe I would raise. But then I was gonna look at the 3bb pot and fold [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

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But there's a bet and a call so it's almost 6 BB now w00t

Bodhi · #4 07-23-2005, 07:08 PM

I would bet the turn. Villain may have been raising a lower pp and wimped out on the flop. Anyway, you're risking 1 bet to win 3.7, so the villain has to fold less than a 1/4 of the time for your fold equity to make betting correct. Other times you will have the best hand. Bet.

hemstock · #5 07-23-2005, 07:09 PM

Well it's 3.7BB when it gets to you on the turn. But I guess you can't fold when you can check for free so silly me [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

I think you should bet from the beginning. If he reraises you you're done. Now that you checked try reraising him. If he caps it, also fold and if he calls, lead the turn. There's also a possibility that MP2 is hanging in there with a weak ace.

Fadook · #6 07-23-2005, 07:20 PM

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In addition, there three face cards, so I'm currently way behind damn near anything I can put him on except JJ (if he raises that).

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OL, I'm gonna take a newbie shot at this. You think Villain's a very tight raiser, so I find his check on the flop weird, and I guess he's doing the typically passive slowplay, not wanting to lose customers to SBs to win BBs. Your pair of KKs is probably behind, and you're not getting the odds for your gutshot. I think you should fold the turn.

Eeegah · #7 07-23-2005, 07:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet the turn. Villain may have been raising a lower pp and wimped out on the flop. Anyway, you're risking 1 bet to win 3.7, so the villain has to fold less than a 1/4 of the time for your fold equity to make betting correct. Other times you will have the best hand. Bet.

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I don't see this guy folding 1/4 of the time. I don't see him raising with 99, so the only thing I'm ahead of is JJ. Factor in that he could be slowplaying AA, KK, QQ, AK or just hit a straight with TT, and I think I'm ahead way less than 1/4 of the time, and he has a monster the rest.

Bodhi · #8 07-23-2005, 07:40 PM

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or just hit a straight with TT

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Wtf? This alone should be enough evidence that you're suffering from mubs. Most of your posts I've seen have to do with folding decent hands and fearing the worst. Think about that.

Eeegah · #9 07-24-2005, 02:27 AM

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Wtf? This alone should be enough evidence that you're suffering from mubs. Most of your posts I've seen have to do with folding decent hands and fearing the worst. Think about that.

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Haha whoops, somehow decided there was a Jack on the board; sorry about that.

Okay, suppose I bet out, the PFR raises and the cold-caller calls. Do I go ahead and call this down?

McGahee · #10 07-24-2005, 02:48 AM

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On the flop, I have no overcards but I do have a backdoor flush draw and a gutshot. Is this enough to bet?

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Definitely not given the likelyhood of you getting raised and shutting out the fish.

I like your turn check too, given your read that he plays the expensive streets more aggressively.
I would call this turn bet because I think you're being pessimistic about estimating your outs. What reason do you have to believe anybody has a J or a T?