TT against a rock

[Aaron W.]

Bet the turn, check behind on the river, lose to QQ.

I might muck this hand preflop against a rock raising UTG. I'm not giving up that much (if anything) by doing so.

[Sir Bruce]

Why did you slow down on the turn? I don't like the free card play here because you have so few outs, but are reasonably likely to still have the best hand. The flop raise is for protection in this huge pot, not to hope for a set on the river.

With that reasoning in mind, you have to bet the turn. You absolutely do not want to give AK a chance to draw out on you. UTG might be slowing down with QQ or even KK, but AK is more likely. Plus MP2 is still drawing and you should charge him a bet for the river.

Given the turn play, I'd call the river and hope for MP2 to overcall.

[DeathDonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
I might muck this hand preflop against a rock raising UTG. I'm not giving up that much (if anything) by doing so.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not with our "read" based on 65 hands.

-DeathDonkey

[aces_dad]

And the 3bet from EP limits the field making our implied odds for a set even worse. I agree I'm leaning towards folding this PF to such a rock.

[aargh57]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't necessarily expect a better pocket pair. In fact I suspect AJ, AQ, AK, or KQ to be just as likely or maybe even more so. After 65 hands he's tight preflop but aggressive postflop (I think it said 3.something) so I think a reasonable move for him would have been to bet a flop like this with overcards and then bet out again on the river when hero checked the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're misinterpreting that number. It's likely not anywhere close to the true value. If villain plays 7% of 65 hands, then he has seen only 4-5 flops. That's not nearly enough for the aggression number to converge.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aaron,

I can see that what you say about my misinterpretation is correct (in fact I've probably been putting too much stock in this number given sample sizes,thanks). Even so, do you think my assesment is wrong about the range of hands he has being incorrect? Basically, you don't know how he plays posflop so he could very well have overcards and be firing at you on the flop. Perhaps you are just correcting me on my overvaluing the postflop agg. number?

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I might muck this hand preflop against a rock raising UTG. I'm not giving up that much (if anything) by doing so.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not with our "read" based on 65 hands.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

65 hands is getting to the point where I'm starting to believe it. This is tight enough where I think AA-JJ, AK-AJ, KQs becomes a reasonable set of raising standards. I'm a 4:1 dog against 24 of those hands, and 11:9 against 52 of those. Furthermore, I probably stand to win very little if he flops overcards and lose quite a lot if we both flop overpairs.

I'm not against 3-betting and playing on, but I think it's starting to get to the point where mucking becomes a consideration.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
And the 3bet from EP limits the field making our implied odds for a set even worse. I agree I'm leaning towards folding this PF to such a rock.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not a consideration. You're not playing this hand to catch a set. You are aiming to win unimproved.

If you play, you *MUST* 3-bet.

[aces_dad]

Which is how OP played it, and the flop is pretty favorable for him with only the J overcard.

I understand you can't cc 2 with 10's in EP and wasn't endorsing it. If I play this I also 3 bet it.

[eviljeff]

if he's a rock, then we're behind on the flop, but have the odds to continue (I estimate 3.5 outs). the raise is fine.

on the river you beat hands like 88 and A9, but if he's really a rock he won't be raising with these hands. fold.

[BruinEric]

Grunchola.

This is a good hand to think about for me.

In the "heat of battle," and given the way you played it up to the river, I probably call the river.

Given the time to think about it, it's hard to figure out what he has. His aggression number is big, so surely if he has AA or KK he's capping pre-flop so let's rule those out. If he has JJ, he's playing it differently on flop & turn (unless he's too tricky for his own good), so forget that.

Maybe I could see this guy playing QQ, AK, AJ, KQs or TT like this because enough players won't cap w/QQ pre-flop and you might scare QQ by representing a set or overpair.

After more thought, given that villain has AK enough times in this position (you induced a bluff with your turn check), I would call the river.

It doesn't matter anyway...MP2 flips over Jx-suited and takes the pot. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]