TT against a rock

hemstock · #1 07-18-2005, 09:50 AM

PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (13.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, MP2 calls, Button folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (9.70 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks.

River: (9.70 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, Hero?

Villain is very very tight. 7/4/3.67 after 65.
MP2 is another fish not worrying me.
I think my flop raise is correct to get the river card for free (right), but should I call the river ? The only thing I can beat is a bluff (Propably AK given villains aggression)

tiltaholic · #2 07-18-2005, 10:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (13.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, MP2 calls, Button folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (9.70 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks.

River: (9.70 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, Hero?

Villain is very very tight. 7/4/3.67 after 65.
MP2 is another fish not worrying me.
I think my flop raise is correct to get the river card for free (right), but should I call the river ? The only thing I can beat is a bluff (Propably AK given villains aggression)

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd much prefer betting the turn and checking the river.

fractured · #3 07-18-2005, 10:02 AM

What would he raise with preflop that would have you beaten now? AJ? He could have a a big pocket pair I guess but why would he check the turn?

I would bet the turn and check/call the river if raised.

davelin · #4 07-18-2005, 10:02 AM

The way you played this, I'm inclined to bet the turn. Is a rock leading this flop with AK UI? I wouldn't be surprised to see a scared overpair played here.

#5 07-18-2005, 10:09 AM

why do you want to give him a free river card, since you are the one that has a vulnerable pair?
you have to worry about any ace, king or queen given your read. i would bet. that would make the river easier to play as well. in your situation the river is a call imo.

btw: first post [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

aargh57 · #6 07-18-2005, 10:32 AM

I think I call here. I think that the chance that villain is betting overcards is good enough to warrant a call. I think this chance is well over 10% and the chance that the fish may have been hanging in there with a smaller pair or a draw warrants your call. I think I would have bet the turn here also. I wouldn't be able to specifically put him on AK though especially after only 65 hands.

silencio · #7 07-18-2005, 10:35 AM

(Grunching)
On what can you put villain here ?
I would figure AJ after his flop bet, but he doesn't cap. So, I am thinking AJ and he probably fears hero has a set so he checks the turn. After it is checked back to him on the river he no longer fears and bets. But what does he think hero has now ? A busted KQ gutshot ?

Rosencrantz1 · #8 07-18-2005, 10:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
(Grunching)
On what can you put villain here ?
I would figure AJ after his flop bet, but he doesn't cap.

[/ QUOTE ]
Given that he's a rock, I think you could put him on more than AJ -- AK, AQ, QQ and maybe even AA/KK if he's tight/weak.

[ QUOTE ]
So, I am thinking AJ and he probably fears hero has a set so he checks the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero has raised him on every street so far. I think it's just as likley he was hoping to C/R the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
After it is checked back to him on the river he no longer fears and bets. But what does he think hero has now ? A busted KQ gutshot ?

[/ QUOTE ]
Or he's betting out because of a failed C/R on the turn and he feels that he's ahead and is value-betting the river. Given what a tight player he is, it seems unlikely that he would lead out with less than a pocket pair.

There's a chance that we're ahead on the river and I would definitely call for one bet (particularly since it is so unlikely we'll get raised behind here), but I'm expecting to be shown a better PP.

aargh57 · #9 07-18-2005, 11:59 AM

I don't necessarily expect a better pocket pair. In fact I suspect AJ, AQ, AK, or KQ to be just as likely or maybe even more so. After 65 hands he's tight preflop but aggressive postflop (I think it said 3.something) so I think a reasonable move for him would have been to bet a flop like this with overcards and then bet out again on the river when hero checked the turn.

Aaron W. · #10 07-18-2005, 12:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't necessarily expect a better pocket pair. In fact I suspect AJ, AQ, AK, or KQ to be just as likely or maybe even more so. After 65 hands he's tight preflop but aggressive postflop (I think it said 3.something) so I think a reasonable move for him would have been to bet a flop like this with overcards and then bet out again on the river when hero checked the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're misinterpreting that number. It's likely not anywhere close to the true value. If villain plays 7% of 65 hands, then he has seen only 4-5 flops. That's not nearly enough for the aggression number to converge.